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Hi krone. For 1801, I think we will go down the on licence route. We should be looking at a smallish upfront, maybe £10 million with high backend milestones. Maybe as high as a billion (bio bucks) with double digit royalties. For 1802, presuming 1801 sales through phase 1, we could be looking at a bigger upfront and bigger milestones as the markets sizes will be bigger. I'd expect whoever takes on 1801 will want first refusal for 1802. Also by that time we will have clarity around 737. I think at that point we will also have a good idea of the probability of success and the data to back it up. Sierra oncology were worth 1.9 billion with a smaller pipeline, albiet a further advanced in trials. Ultimately, if we get 3 approved drugs, the mc could be in the multiple billions do what would the fair value be going into phase 3 trials?

I still think £2billion mc by the end of 1801 phase 2. Timescales? It will probably be 2025/26 if we get that far. I'm not sure the board or the investors have the appetite to go that distance though.

hi krone. non of us really know what happened with 737. love oking at the data we know and who has been involved, then non of it makes sense. based on what we know, so should have been able to secure funding for 737. the had the licence for peanuts. imo, there are two scenarios. one is that 737 isn't as good as we've been told, the other is, the clock to handing back was intentionally run down. i think it is the second one as it enables a new deal to be struck. if i were a so shareholder, i'd be ****ed if gsk was the pharma making the deal but it could work in our favour.

But wouldn't that same reasoning also include a licence deal, Krone?

Sch - the reason I think 737 will likely be sold is because CRT exist to fund Cancer Research in finding treatments. They are not in it for the money. Just think of how many development projects they could fund with a £600 million sale of 737. Yes they could wait until commercialisation and possibly get more but why risk it. When the money could be used to fund drug development now.

If I were to stick my neck out. I think outright purchase is what will happen. I also think this is the reason SAR went down the finance route rather that investors with a placement. I'm not a fan of the finance route but it is as others have stated a type of bridging loan. I guess cpf could achieve a higher valuation if they could partner 737 into trials but I'd be very happy if SAR could realise 27.5% of £600 million. It would see us Fully funded and maybe even a special dividend payment to the investors.

Yes all relative. I know a few of the LTH have already been millionaires back in 2021. Sometimes I with I'd bought more in the 0.18p days but glad I started some safer investments too. Less that 2 years until I'm 55. No desire to retire yet so I can wait.

To be fair, we only need the Psoriasis trial to go well and most LTH will be millionaires. I'd need approx £19 or 1.5 billion mc. Easy doable with a successful 1801 P2 and a validated 1802 racing though trials.

MAJ, I actually agree with your analysis regarding RF. I think there will be a 15 to 20% shortfall when all RF shares are sold so Sareum will have to give them more shares, possibly a million, just to makeup that shortfall. Most here know that, or they should do. But here's the thing, even though I know that, I have added more to my pot over the last few weeks. We know the SP can get to £4 just on Investor sentiment. Yes the SP could fall but good 737 news would make sure you would never see these lows again. The upside is worth the risk IMO.

As Ahfam has pointed out. Sareum have never put a value on the compounds but they have shared news and links of similar compounds and deal sizes. So we do have a good idea of what to expect. I'm expecting total milestone payments to be in the billions once all compounds are licenced and progressing. That doesn't mean it's nailed on of course but at that point. it really is all about the science.

Any licence done in P1 will be low upfront, 5 to 10 million would be my guess with high backend milestones, so the big numbers won't come into play until p3 and approvals. I agree ,it would be better for Sareum if we waited but I'm of the opinion that Tim, John and the board have done all the can and it's time to hand over the reins to a partner that has the expertise and resources to give our compounds the best chance of getting to market. It's high risk for Sareum to take 1801 to p2 but low risk for the pharma who licences it. Apart from the upfront they don't pay anything until P2 starts dosing. Effectively they could secure a potential blockbuster for a few million.

Let's hope it is RF. The quicker they get rid the quicker the SP will become unleashed.

Hi Ahfam. I think we'll get a licence before p1b. I don't think potential partners will risk higher bids coming in if 1801 show efficacy in psoriasis patients. Showing an ascending immune response in line with dosing escalation might be enough to seal the deal.

That's a good post C79. My own personality trait, which seems to be getting strong as I age, makes me want to know both sides of the argument. I don't like the phrase 'sitting on the fence' but I guess that's what it is. I'm a nightmare at work, I always ask why and my brain works through multiple possibilities and outcomes all at the same time. I know it's trendy to be ADHD at the moment but I have some strong signals of a neurodivergent brain. I will ask questions and comment even if the view is contrary to what a LTH should be thinking. I can't wave the Sareum flag until they do what they say they will. I do have the flag ready though.

Silver, my guess is, they are not rich. They are paid good salaries but not massive. They will have bills to pay just like the rest of us do. It's a message to the shareholders that they believe all is good. Personally, I would read too much into it. We might see another notification tomorrow. It a nice cheeky way to stick it to those who are shorting.

Could be something probably nothing. They are just saying that in the event of a vote, then Parker would have some influence over some shares that he doesn't own. If the was a vote e.g. takeover offer. It would probably be Parker that recommends which way we should vote. Obviously, would vote whichever way we choose.

Horse, Parkers wife bought some a few years ago.

Glenmere. IMO, securing an on licence for TYK2 1801 will put the 'buyout' to bed for good. Presumably, the licensee will want first refusal on 1802 and with that they will hold most of the cards whilst not carrying the risk.

As it stands, if there was ever a chance of a buyout, it would be now. Personally, I don't think it would be far fetched to think that this is on the table, especially if 737 can be progressed. We might get less than if we waited until end of p2 but that's the reason why I think a pharma could swoop and take it all, including ICR's share of 737. All done and dusted in 1 transaction. Once a licence is announced, that's it imo, that's the path until failure or market and we as shareholders would have to plan when to sell for maximum profit.

Morning all. Been on holiday in Cornwall for the last 18 days! Not kept up with the goings on here. Nice RNS today. As others have said, there are a couple of pertinent points in the text. One being the bio markers comments. We will now be monitoring to see if there is an immune response in the patients. This means we will have data to show the potential efficacy and if the higher doses show a bigger response and are still tolerated, then it's game on. We don't have to wait 4 months before a pattern emerges and crucially a potential partner will probably want in before any data is publicly released anyway. If all goes well, Deal by Christmas. Imo, The SP is tied to these levels until RF have got their money back. More patience needed but a milestone reached.

Hi Fearg. Not sure if it was me or not. I'm of the opinion that John and Tim have done enough in pre clinical studies to know with some certainty that 1801 will show efficacy in phase 1b. It will be dose dependant though. SOG has stated this a few times and it will be a really important step to licensing and success if we can dose at high levels without adverse reactions. After that, then we go into P2 with nothing much to stop us. Until the primary endpoint is reached or not. This scenario is much easier to value and invest into. Mainly because other tyk2 compounds are already past this point. In short, we don't be testing if it works, we will be testing to see how well it works against the competition. Again, as SOG states the higher doses could put us head and shoulders above the competition.