Member Info for potnak

It's a good article that gives the LTH a warm glow but essentially it is targeted at those who already know. Everyone knows my take save the time, effort and money for the trials. Stick to the timelines they've told us and I'll be happy. I literally don't care if new investors come or not.

I think we will have our deal way before unmet need makes a difference. But yes, in a licence scenario, unmet need could mean, fast track status and quicker path to market (or failure).

Let me firstly state that this is a lighthearted post about how the herd can be led. I thought yesterday's call was a good solid presentation that mostly avoided any type of sensationalism. They have clear milestones/outcomes and achieveble timescales. Mostly, they kept Parker out of it and I think that was intensional. The thing that has made me smile, and Tim knew what he was doing here was the casual 4 billion valuation carrot he threw in right at the beginning. This was his plus one, we all listened after that opening. He then went on with the presentation but switched to licencing, licencing, licensing. The funny thing for me is how this board are now convinced of a buyout even though Tim said the aim is to license at the end of p1b over and over! I'm happy either way. To carry on ignoring what Tim said, I suppose the next question is what would a 4 billion valued phase 2 compound licence or sell for at the end of phase 1? Think this is one for the likes of RMM. The other telling comment that Sareum won't take 1801 further than p1 was the comment where he said they don't know what phase will look like, it might not be in psoriasis. I need to listen to that bit again.

Yes, as expected. Not what some here want to hear but a good solid plan. Hopefully with no more delays. Buy on dips to compensate for the RF dillution and sit it out. Maybe we'll get 737 news to boost the sp before 1b finishes.

Well, I learned one thing today. How to pronounce pharmacokinetics!

Attention from who though? We are where we are through a combinations of things. We were pumped up to 9p on the back of covid. Some made money but a lot took some big losses. We then fell behind schedule by 18 to 24 months. The board were talking about p1 trials back in 2018 and we started them 5 years later! AIM stock took a real bashing in the last 12 months and with political and global landscape as it is, AIM it isn't a great place to put your money right now. The safest AIM stock is the one you don't hold. Buyers will come when we get tangible news, we might even get the herd coming to pump it to unsustainable highs as long term holders it doesn't really matter what happens until you sell. The only thing I want from tomorrow is clear indications that the trial is progressing and that there are no anticipated delays coming. I absolutely do not want lip service from Parker.

I never get the PR thing. Who would they market Sareum to? I'd hazard a guess that most phamas have scanned the pipeline and data to date. Some will be interested and will be watching the trials, maybe even talking to Sareum, some not. Can't see where PR would help here. For potential investors, there is very little the company can say without breaking rules. Facts only. If you want to use PR for a comfort blanket for those already invested then that's a waste of money, IMO.

You can shave some time off with trials such as doing two studies at the same time but you can't cut any corners. Most trials, even if fully funded and everything goes to plan will take 3 to 5 years, usually more. You might get fast-track status for an unmet need but psoriasis treatment isn't an unmet need. If you are talking about a buyout then the trials will still take the same amount of time but we won't care anymore.

Not really a hunch. Phase one timescales were given just yesterday. It'll be 2025 before readout and Phase 2. You can make a good guess when phase 3 will start. The only thing that will chance those timescales is if we get bought out. And yes, no one knows if that will happen.

Yes, they do Basterman but in recent years they have said to maximize value for shareholders, they might have to license at a later stage. This really is just my opinion but I think we've got at least 3 more years before we see the 'endgame' type figures that have been touted here over the years. Barring an outright takeover, I can see some long-term holders being annoyed once a license is announced. It would be massive news, of course, but it isn't going to give us a billion-pound valuation overnight and we would have to watch the compounds go through trials and accept the risk that they could fail.

We all want the end game to start but we all want a massive return on our investment too. IMO the earlier the deal, the more value we have to give up. Like I said the other day, i'm 53 and the timescales work for me. I do appreciate that for others, they can't wait. In this case, the only answer is to re-evaluate what you want. You don't have to wait for the end game.

On 737. whether you think Sareum are involved with negotiations or not. They won't be able to tell us anything more than they already have. It'll be the same with talks they have been having about 1801\1802. I mean suspect 1802 is paused because of cash but they won't want to say that for obvious reasons and I hope they aren't pushed to. No point in giving the MM's more ammo to drop the price with. I'm hoping tomorrow's presentation is boring with zero nods and winks to something that might never happen. Slow and steady wins this race.

You are proving the point there. The price went up after p1b trial and data readout. So for Sareum, that's 2025 or about 18 months if we assume march 2025. I said this yesterday, you can learn a lot from researching other similar deals.

Reading anything more into an RNS than is clearly stated is a recipe for disappointment when the next RNS update comes out. We'll have the same when the AGM comes along. Some will want some sort of news when there none and will come to this board to vent their frustrations. The cycle will continue until tangible news of a deal or real progress. Like I said earlier, read the RNS's and make your plans around them not what people say on here.

Yep, its deals this why I think £2billion by the end of phase 2.

Ahfam labled sflf's as FUD. When they were just quoting the RNS. If data readout for 1a is expected in H1 24 and 1b hopes to complete in 2024 then they are correct that the readout for 1b will be in 2025, that's when we, the shareholders will find out if the 1b studies have shown some efficacy or not and 18 months sounds about right that's how I assessed it too. So where is the FUD in the comment? Take out the jam tomorrow opening and the rest is a sensible post. I'm not having a go at anyone having an opinion but opinions don't trump facts.

But sflf is correct. We are 18 months away from 1b data readout. It isn't FUD. He quoted the RNS where as you made something up and said something that might happen. The good news is, Nowhere in that RNS does it state we will wait until 1b data readout to get a deal. I think we'll get a licence deal once safety is proven. That in itself will open another can of worms though. This would lock us in for the long haul and it obvious that some here don't have the appetite for that.

But you are trying to pass off your optimism and conjecture as fact. The RNS clearly states the timelines and the have themselves all of 24 H1 to release 1a data. Yes, it might happen sooner but for the serious investors, you have go on what the company is telling you. I agree with Laz, the timelines work for me and I will buy more when funds allow. For others, well they will have to make their own decisions.

Ahfam, that isn't helpful. You are contradicting what the RNS says and that's why posters here get annoyed when an RNS clearly states otherwise. Phase 2 will be 2025 and phase 3 2026/7.

Bit bemused by the negative reaction to the RNS this morning. We already knew the timescales from previous RNS releases. My advice is to read the RNS's and don't listen to the far ends of the discussion.