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Bit bemused by the negative reaction to the RNS this morning. We already knew the timescales from previous RNS releases. My advice is to read the RNS's and don't listen to the far ends of the discussion.

This is the area where thoth excelled. He had a broad knowledge of other biotecs and deals made. For possible answers, you have to look at what happens to other biotecs. The list of deals that Ahfam has, what happened to the companies after the deals were inked? I mean, we all thought the Pronai deal was massive at the time but seven years on, we had approx £2 million from it and if someone had predicted that in the weeks after the deal, they would have been called a Womble. Now we have no deal at all for 737! I'm not being negative BTW, but we can only go on what we know happens in the real world. If we get past p1b, I'm pretty confident that we'll work our way to some pretty big valuations. I just think it will be a few years down line before we see them.

I think once we have a licence deal. That's it. I would imagine that all external offers would be off the table. Why would a big pharma let another big pharma buy up what would amount to a percentage of all future earnings. Sareum could be for sale but not the licenced compound. Again, I would be interested if anyone can show where this happened. Sareum is 737, 1801 and 02 and if they are licenced then there is isn't a great deal left to sell.

The most likely scenario for a 1801 deal is an on licence with a smallish upfront of £10 million or so. We would probably get milestones in the mid to high hundreds of millions but the big milestone payments would be for p2, p3 and approval. Other than the initial spike on announcement of the deal, I really can't see how it elevate the SP much past £3. For those that remember the Pronai deal. It's was worth £80 million in milestone and news doubled the sp overnight but it retraced quite quickly back (and lower) to the original price. 737 could put a £1 on the sp, it all depends on the deal. For any value to stick, you would need something tangible. A big upfront, comprlling data etc.. Personally, I don't think we will get that until P2. However, I would love to be proved wrong. I would also love to hear arguments why others thing otherwise.

Celtic, I guess the timescales depend on what outcome you are waiting for. If you want a valuation in the billions, IMO, that isn't going to happen until phase 2 is done and there is a positive outcome that suggests a move into Phase 3. IMO, we will be very lucky if Phase 2 gets the go ahead before 2025 so phase 3 will probably be in start in 2026. The other thing to consider is the type of deal we go for. An outright buyout sounds great as there is no decision to make, it's largely out of our hands but there would be downside to that because we'd have to give up some of the potential value. If we go down the licence route then that's it, no more multi billion buyout dreams. You are in it for the long haul and you decide when to sell as the reward/risk balance tips. This choice is personal. I'm 53 and hold enough Sareum shares to give me a nice comfortable retirement when added to my other pensions. I've no desire to be a rich old man. Id rather be a wealthy middle aged man who can choose whether to work or not. I don't actually need that high a SP to achieve this so if we ever get near it. Unless the was a proper compelling reason not to, I'd hit the sell button on an instant. And if sareum goes down the pan. Plan b it too retire at 60 anyway so no great loss.

The caveat is, if needs to work and show efficacy. Based purely on other biotecs, the probability of both compounds being good is low but that why the price is low now.

With even a little sniff of efficacy in 737 combo and 1801 b. Then we are looking at mid to high hundreds of millions. Depends on licencing deal sizes. Add 1802 into that mix and you are over a billion. If we get to end of p2 with no worries. You can double that IMO. Maybe not next year but within 3.

IMO, it's early to get it out of the way for a period of news flow. If the board is reading. Do the regulatory bits quickly and professionally. No platitudes and soundbites. No "form an orderly queue" type answers. Just facts and timescales, please.

Anything over 79p is a buy I think. Im onow that because I had two buys this morning.

Preyno, I don't know. Much like the SAR business model, CPF fund projects to get them to the end of phase 1 and CRT give grants away to help biotechs get their product to the end of phase 1. Both organisations do it for the benefit of cancer patients rather than profit but I'm sure sixth element capital who manage the fund think differently 🤔. They use the scatter gun approach. Find as many small projects as possible and hope a few treatments are discovered and approved on the way. A lump sum of a few hundred millions would fund a whole lot of new grants to eager scienrists. I just think any pharma who has a drug that will pair nicely with 737 will want it all and that would be a win win scenario for everybody involved.

Might be wishful thinking on my part but this is the scenario I think will play out. There might have to be an official combo study to get there but crt/CPF selling it outright would seem the best outcome for all parties. CPF get some cash to fund more projects, sareum gets 27.5% to find our trials and the pharma gets a potential blockbuster for peanuts. They would have to give up some of the value of course. As for value, IMO, the buyout value would at least have to crystalise the milestones of any licence. The Sierra licence had milestones of 300 million initially and any new licence would take into account the proven safety profile and trial data so the milestones would be higher. Anything upto a billion. So, again, my opinion, the value to sell is between these numbers. Somewhere in the middle would be amazing. Win/win for all concerned.

Any invoming news bound by this rule probably wouldn't include 737 news. That's with CPF so they would be doing the negotiating.

Years ago. One of my friends was shortlisted for a job. His task before the final interview was to create a presentation to show why humans should be culled at 65. He argued it would compress life into a shorter time frame which would mean, humans would enjoy life more, they wouldn't horde cash and assets, he reasoned that we could lower retirement age to 50 so we all got 15 years to enjoy while we were still young enough to enjoy it. He must have done a good job because he was offered the role. 😂

I'm of the opinion that a life well lived is what we should all aspire to. Live, love and grow old disgracefully. As soon as I become a burden. You can order me a taxi to Dignitas.

Yes, HBD. I was going to mention gene therapy. That is where the future of healthcare will be. Simple blood test from both parents then target the suspect genes. AI will do all the heavy diagnostic lifting. Ethically, I'm not sure it's a world I want to live in but realistically I probably won't get the chance to anyway.

We are a long long way from curing cancer and it may not ever be possible. If drugs work the pharma industry will make them available and there will be be an endless supply of patients. Even if we do everything right, good diet, excecise, less stress etc.. We will age and with that, we will get sick. It's probably a good time to seek out the minnows such as SAR.

Hi krone. For 1801, I think we will go down the on licence route. We should be looking at a smallish upfront, maybe £10 million with high backend milestones. Maybe as high as a billion (bio bucks) with double digit royalties. For 1802, presuming 1801 sales through phase 1, we could be looking at a bigger upfront and bigger milestones as the markets sizes will be bigger. I'd expect whoever takes on 1801 will want first refusal for 1802. Also by that time we will have clarity around 737. I think at that point we will also have a good idea of the probability of success and the data to back it up. Sierra oncology were worth 1.9 billion with a smaller pipeline, albiet a further advanced in trials. Ultimately, if we get 3 approved drugs, the mc could be in the multiple billions do what would the fair value be going into phase 3 trials?

I still think £2billion mc by the end of 1801 phase 2. Timescales? It will probably be 2025/26 if we get that far. I'm not sure the board or the investors have the appetite to go that distance though.

hi krone. non of us really know what happened with 737. love oking at the data we know and who has been involved, then non of it makes sense. based on what we know, so should have been able to secure funding for 737. the had the licence for peanuts. imo, there are two scenarios. one is that 737 isn't as good as we've been told, the other is, the clock to handing back was intentionally run down. i think it is the second one as it enables a new deal to be struck. if i were a so shareholder, i'd be ****ed if gsk was the pharma making the deal but it could work in our favour.

But wouldn't that same reasoning also include a licence deal, Krone?