Member Info for potnak

Aber, I am resigned to the fact that it will get worse before it will get better. The RF facility is finance, pure and simple so RF won't know anymore than we do otherwise insider trading rules will have been broken. They may speculate and wait before selling but as the facility is weighted so they can't lose, they don't have to. I think they will start selling in the run up to the AGM and with another 300k tranche to drawdown in Feb 24. The facility will need be settled or we will have to give them more shares until it is. The above is why I feel triggered when some here start calling the likes of Puma a maj liars, they are not liars, it's all there in the RNS. You might not like it but our board thought this was our best option. 🙄. I'm bullish on the science and will keep buying in small tranches but I can't pretend the RF facility is good for Sareum, it's not. To potential partners, It will look like a crutch for a failing company to lean on and IMO, it weakens our negotiating power. I'm hoping that 737 news comes along and it oays for p2 do we can be rid of RF for good.

Yes, but all thing bring equal. Same p1b and same p2b data. If that data brings in an offer of 4 billion at p2b data. What is the risk adjusted discount to takeout at 1b. Is it 90,70, 60%? For ease of calculation A 90% discount would be 400 million x 2 (1801/2) plus whatever our share of 737 is worth. I think RMM once covered this in one of his posts.

Bring private will have added to the value here. No need to report finances, or shareholders that deals are on the table would massively help with negotiations. Unfortunately for Sareum, everything is there in the open. The other side can see our financial statement and could ride it out until the board and shareholders are desperate. I'm hoping 737 news comes and it massively strengthens our position. If enough up front to fund up to 2b then we'll get our buyout.

Yes, private company. Says in the article that one of the options for funding was an ipo but they decided not to and they placed shares with existing investors.

Question got the science bods here. If sar p1b is equal to or better than Nimbus p1b, is the probability the same for p2b? And if yes, a question for any MA accountants. Based on a 4 billion valuation at 2b, what would the risk adjusted value be for a 1b buyout? I think the likes of RMM and other could have a good go at this one.

Big take away for me is they had multiple billion dollar terms to review. That means there are other pharmas out there who lost out to Takeda. And they still might want a Tyk2 or 2. The valuation on p2b data leaves some wiggle room for a 2 billion valuation here at the same stage. Will say it again though. The TO model disappears once a licence is announced. We could still get that 2 billion valuation on p2b data readout though. We'll just have to wait for it.

They'd probably get fast track status for Pancreatic. But they might go for an easy win first.

It'll be interesting what indication they choose for 1802. It'll be a cancer but the indication might point the way to who eventually takes it. The 1802 lupus thing is the reason why I think both compounds will go to the same pharma. One is immune the other, cancer but I guess they are similar enough to treat both. It would be a patent and legal nightmare if they went to seperate pharma. This is the main reason a buyout could still happen but the window is getting smaller. I think we will know by next summer.

Funnily enough. Prof Tom Noakes researched sodium intake for his book Waterlogged. Lots of science and trials cited. The evidence seems to contradict everything we think and have been told about hydration and sodium intake. It's aimed at endurance athletes but a good, if a little science heavy read.

I have 2 close friends that both reversed their type 2 diagnosis with diet alone. One did keto, the other, the banting diet. Both diet are ultra low carb. The banting diet is more scienced backed though. High fat, low carb. I looslt follow the banting method. The only carbs I eat are green veg, I eat butter, meat and full fat cheese. Beer is difficult which is why I say I loosely follow the diet. Any pre diabetic or those already type 2 should look up prof Tim Noakes research into this. The evidence is pretty compelling.

One, 737. It's the unknown here. A deal could come any time please don't waste your time going through my posts. Pointless, have a beer instead.

Not trying or claiming to be right. Just pointing out that you can be bullish and pleased the the trials are progressing and not being happy about the financial situation, we seem to have got ourselves into at the same time. Makes no difference to me but some here have their heads in the sand and I'm not sure how aware they are of the cliff edge approaching in the next six months. It's likely the sp will go to 50p if RF start selling this latest tranche and worse still, they get some more shares next February.. Posters who are worried about that have as much right to moan about it on here as anyone else does.

Laz, I believe 737 is more entwined with Sareum and potential deals than we think. IMO it has always been plan A for funding tyk2. The annoying bit is it looks like we didn't have a plan B. Now. Plan A must be a licence for 1801. I just hope the board have planned past the point where we run out of cash because a licence is taking longer than anticipated to negotiate.

I doesn't matter now but to those screaming hindsight. Of wasn't hindsight. It was discussed on here quite a few times.

Go back if you want.

Not at all, one. But the argument, well what can they do? The answer is, have more than one plan. I'm not annoyed at the funding, I'm annoyed that they let us get to the point that it was the best option.

See my post below. These are my words from various points in 2022. Couldn't be bothered to go further back.

I just wanted to revisit where I had talked about raising along with others here. Here are just a few and I only went back to 2022. Water under the bridge but if we could see it as a hood option, surely the board did.

Sp 135

Yes, IMO they should raise enough to see 1801/02 through to P2 or possibly into P2. What will that cost, £10, £20 million? I don't know but investors will be more willing to invest after the threat of a placing has been removed.

SP 137

SOG. I'm thinking they will do a small focused P2 combo. Basically to gather enough data to support licensing the compound. Funding wise, could be a JV or a placing. IMO, they should go all in. Raise enough cash to see everything in trials. The job is done then. The compounds work or they don't. Couple of years to find out

SP 174

Just to echo some of SOGs points. IMO A placing would be acceptable if it derisked us for p1a/b and 1802 preclinical. We could then do a later stage (bigger/better) licence deal. An institutiinal investment brokered by PH would be massive news and secure us well into P2 territory. They may go down the HNWI route again but I think that is unlikely as the last one is well underwater. Not a great advert for the company.

I'm not an expert, I'm science or corporate finance but quite a few here, including me were asking why were weren't fundraising back in the £3 range. We could've raised £10 million for not much more dilution than what the RF facility is costing us. It's not hindsight. It was stated on here quite a few times. I don't want to see any of the board go, not at this stage but if Parker is going to get us a deal then he is also responsible if we don't.

Posters a put a lot of focus on the positives of the science here but then project the positives onto the fundraising and deal making. If the science is good, it will still be good whether it's Sareum taking it forward or a n other because Sareum couldn't afford to progress it.

What do I want Parker and the board to do? Well, to use Parkers own words "to not trip over the same rock twice". Failing to make hay while the sun shines feels like a pretty big rock that the lth have seen before. If 1b data is only Luke warm, we are done for.

Parrot, in 20 years of AIM trading, I have watched some good companies with promising products get mismanaged into obscurity. Yes, I believe we could get a 2 billion valuation if, IF, everything goes to plan. However, IMO, financially, we are stood on a cliff edge with no negotiating power. The pharmas can afford to sit this out until someone blinks, but is is worrying, that the board let us get to the position where the RF facility was the best option. What was the worst? Stood outside St Pancras with a bucket? I've placed my bet on the slowest coin flip in history.

I first bought into sar about a week before the mice RNS. I'd had a mare with oxb and sar was my first dipping my toes into biotech after that. Pure coincidence that it spiked a week later. I couldn't get out at the highs, got out with a x2. 5 profit though. Sold the lot, then started buying again when the were 0.3p. Sold the lot again when we spiked to 1.06p. Started buying again at 0.6, think it was after a placing. Ive held at least a million (old money) ever since. More than 50k now and still buying with spending money.

Weird to think that, after all this time and progress. We could be dropping back below a penny in old money.