Member Info for potnak

Am I missing something here? They patented chk1 because they have their own chk1. Not because they are using sra737.

I have to disagree with your football analogy, Laz. Most of my friends are either Sheff wed or Sheff utd fans. They are constantly negative about their team. They still but a season ticket and spend 1000's travelling round the country to watch them play every year. Football is a good analogy for AIM but not in the way you stated. 😂

Even if not Numedi. This is the type of company I think 737 has gone to. Quick turnaround. Quick Google, Pulmonary Fibrosis market size expected to be 11 billion by 2031.

Or he got tired of getting it wrong, litterally all of the time. I liked his posts until he was trying to discredit posters that were giving opinions that turned out to be true. He could have sold up for all we know. I always thought his expectations on timelines were way off actual reality. I hope he comes back, even if it to reignite the board a bit.

Yes, the board has been very quiet without him. Hope all is good in the Ahfam world but, the name calling was always started by him.

It not what I hoped for but it's obvious to me at least that the big players want to see some proper combo data. I firmly believe that this deal has that aim and only that aim. It'll go to one of the big players once there if proof of good combo response. We might never be given the name of this private company. Bus as was stated earlier this week, we should see the trials spin up and start recruiting.

Last Post should say, not discounting.

I'm discounting that. It will be a massive step and without it we can't even start 1b but as for a rerate, I think we'll be lucky to get back into the pounds. RF will sell into any rise. It is what it is and for me, it's a buying opportunity until something tangible comes along. A question for you. Do you think 1a data readout is bigger than news of a licence on 737? I mean it's only 3 days since we got that news and look at the SP. The RF facility will stop new investor's buying in until we are rid of them.

Not a subtle deramp. You just don't like my opinion. But to answer your question with an opinion.

If the sp falls into the 20's or lower, we'll be in big trouble. Only the shareholders that bought in at 0.4p and lower will be in profit. I'm gambling now but there will be a point where you are throwing good money after bad.

1b data at least a year from now. If good and finance sorted, phase 2 will start mid 25 and end in 26. Data readout could even be 27. I'm hoping we can partner with someone before then.

To answer the likes of surfie. The deal is the deal. The SP = deal size / number of shares in issue. It's as simple as that. Based on other deals done, with 3 compounds all progressing through trials. We could be looking at a £2 billion valuation at the end of a successful 1801 phase 2 trial. So £14 would be on the low side. The risk is still huge, of course, as we may not get there. Good 1b data is critical, no more than 18 months to wait for that. If the data is good. I reckon there will be a big sell off on release of that news.

I'm building a second pot for trading, have 5000 ish already and I'll keep buying while ever the sp is under a pound. I will buy all the way down to the 20's or until news drops. Personally, I think it's going to be a tense year and I think more LTH will start to wobble as none of us are getting any younger and IMO we are looking at 2025 or 26 for any life changing rerates.

HBD. Yout comment on costs is another reason I think this will be a short term deal. It's like flipping a house, you buy and have to prove you can pay but you only pay the mortgage for the time you own it. Buy it, refurb, then sell it on. I think that's what is happening hear. Other than some relatively small trial start up costs and salaries, there is very little risk when compared to the potential upside. I still think a successful p2 737 combo trail would see the 737 value around £800 million. As other's have said here, it wouldn't surprise me if a spinoff company has been setup, just for this purpose. Hire the SO team who worked on 737 and off you go. The shares highlighted in the RNS, would only come into play if the company suddenly jumps in value (ahem, takeover). Tax deductible if it fails.

I'd put money on the new licence being purely for validation reasons. It's almost identical to the SO license but now has the shares. I'm calling it now the private pharma will validate 737 in combo, with a small p2 trial or maybe even a 1b trial. Then once they have data that validates further trials, it will be put up for sale. The shares are an insurance policy for this scenario. 12 to 18 months. The only downside to this is timescales. IMO, there won't be anything tangible that will rerate SAR in 2024. We will get good news in 2024, hopefully but the RF facility will eat up any gains until 1801 1b data is ready. I'll keep buying this year and will probably trade the spikes but it'll be 2025 before we see us back near the highs we once saw.

It's obvious that the big players need proof of 737 with combo efficacy. This deal gives them a fast track way to data and IMO, it will be sold on good data. That's where these shares will come into play and the wording on the RNS suggests that it could be within 12 months. Possibly in time to pay for 1801 P2.

You missed something. The original deal for the preclinical chk1 back in 2016 was worth more than the phase 2 ready 737 deal announced yesterday. You have to laugh about it. AIM never made sense to me. You'd do just as well finding 20 100 to 1 shot horses and sticking £1k on each. Potential returns are huge and it'll be over very quickly if you lose.

Not a negative post. Your post made me 😂.

Yes, Aber. It's a curious choice of words. We know we have funding until the end of p1b. This is likley to be 2025 for the data readout. That will be way before 737 pays us anything significant. I think Tim is referring to the shares we "could" be issued within 12 months. That timeline would work in this scenario. My only negative thought on this is, it's the usual, more questions than answers we've come to expect from SAR. Good that it's progressing but SAR carry all the risk.

I thought the same, Gunner. I even wondered if GSK is spinning up Sierra Oncology again as an arms-length company. They have experience with 737 so could hit the ground running.

Yes, on first read the deal looks undervalued but if those shares give CPF\SAR 10% of a 2 billion dollar company for example plus milestones and royalties then who knows.

Yes, went back and read it properly. We've no idea how much those shares are worth until we know the company and how many shares they have in issue but like I said, it could be lucrative if the company sells up. I

Also, unless someone can find a corresponding news item in the US, I think this company is private as you can't just give away shares without notifying the market. Some of the shares could be issued within 12 months so, I think that is our timeline for the next bit of 737 news, also the reason why the trading is quiet. Good news but more waiting.