RE: JP Morgan's Q3 2023 Licensing and Venture Report22 Nov 2023 09:25
Personally, I think 3 years is more likely, Warthog. I think there area few things to consider and we have to assume there are zero setbacks but we won't dwell on that.
License\deals - IMO, once we get a license for 1801, that will put all dreams of a takeover to rest. It will likely signal that 1802 will be licensed too, possibly to the same pharma. At this point Sareum will be a bona fide clinical-stage pharma and shareholders will have to wait for the trials to progress.
Trials - If everything goes to plan, 1801 P1b will start in 2024 which means we may not get a readout until 2025 which would put the end of P2 into 2026, maybe even 2027 for the data readout. 5 years or a clinical in human trials would be rapid by any pharma standard. But let's just dream it could happen, we would be talking 2028/29 for market approval. Forget all the I've been here 10 years rubbish, the real test started this year, 2023! and if you managed to buy in at this low rate. You saved yourself 10 years of having to come here everyday ha ha.
The good news is, once we get a license and again, assume everything goes to plan. The market cap will rise with every milestone reached. We should be nearing a billion valuation by the time 1801 is in P2, 2 billion if the trial goes well and there is an indication that it will progress into P3.
The last thing to consider is a buyout. I still think we could get a buyout offer but the window of opportunity shrinks as we get nearer a licence deal. I also think there may be an option to sell our share of 737 to make things neater.