Member Info for potnak

Unless the board strongly recommended it, I personally wouldn't accept a formal offer of anything less that £10 a share. If an offer is being made both parties know the true value. I might critise the board sometimes but they know what the compounds are worth if they work.

I think the TO window is closing rapidly and once a licence is negotiated, then, it's closed. The reason being, is why woukd a pharma buy a small biotech if there was already a legally binding agreement for their compounds. They'd be buying something they had no control of. I'd be happy to see any evidence of this ever happening same with an equity company buyout. These usually happen when there is a proven revenue stream and usually when the patent expires. Again, if anyone knows where this happened before, I'd liked to read about it. The tyk2 landscape is getting more crowded and some 2nd gen tyk2 will hit the markets way before 1801/2 does. So this narrows down the field too. It also validates the neck gen tyk2 compounds.

Interesting to hear SOG saying that he think we'll get a licence at the end of 1a as this goes against everything in the recent RNS but then, they would say that, wouldn't they. A TO at the end of 1a would make perfect sense because the overall value is less without proven immune response data that 1b will give us. I know most here bang on about the science but I'd bet my mortgage that other than John Reader, the rest of the board are thinking this way. If the compounds are good they will live on but you don't start your own company for altruistic reasons. Do the rest of the board will have thought about what success means and for me, that is shareholder value.

I don't really have a view on where Sareum are listed but we aren't far from the scenario you state. On the face of it SAR seem to he the perfect choice for a takeover. Small headcount, the NEDS would just walk away, as would Parker, i assume. John and Tim would stay on but with no other assets, it would be simple. However, With all compounds at different stages of development, we may not be ready to TO. IMO, Leggster's scenario is the most likely to happen. And although a licence for 1801, would be massive news, I won't give us the big payday that some of us would like. It's a conundrum, that is fast approaching, especially if you are getting on in age. Do you get out on the spikes or do you wait 3,4,5 years for the compounds to hit the market. Billion dollar revenues don't start until the drug is being prescribed.

One scenario, I have thought about and Tim also mentioned it a couple of times. Is when the Tyk2 compounds are licenced, they use the upfront to aquire a pre or early clinical compound, just like Sierra did. This could add some real value in a short space of time whilst the tyk2 compounds are being looked after with someone else.

Should say foolish not to raise.

I do agree, SOG but the board did know what the costs of running p1 trials are. Tim once said, that it would be foolish to raise when the opportunity arises. Lot of us here, including yourself were saying it at the time. The board could have secured funding to end of phase 1, and we'd be less dilluted than we are now.

Some will scream hindsight, but how can it be hindsight if we were saying it at the time.

My annoyance at the board isn't that they took out the RF facility, it's that they weren't bold enough when they could have been and it ended up being our only option.

Rester, I've got over my annoyance at the bod. I did say at the time, I wondered how low the SP has to go before even the most hardened LTH starts to crack. I dont particularly want the board to do anything other than line up partners for 1801 for when 1b data is ready. The last couple of RNS have been pretty clear of the roadmap and you can make a good guess at the timelines.

Because, I'm buying with what ever is left in my current account at the end of each month. Basically, money I haven't spent on beer. If I saved up these amounts and bought at say 37p, my old average, then I run the risk of missing a mini spike, if there is one. I will stop at 37p as I said earlier and by that time, it might be spring and I'll be spending more on beer anyway.

Gunner, If the board singals that were in an open period rather than closed. I think that would be a signal for some here to sell up now and buy back at sub 30p. I honestly think we are heading for the 30's. By not doing anything and keeping quiet, the board can protect the blind faith that some have in them. No news is good news and all that. This is all my opinion, of course but a director buy, literally tells the market that they know of no reason why the shares might rise. No official talk, no due dilligence etc.

If directors bought now, it would signal that there is no news (they know of) due. IMO, it would do more harm than good.

I'll be buying more on payday next and will keep buying until it hit my old pre consolidation price. More of a symbolic target than any real strategy.

I wasn't specifically having a go at you but in the case of Puma, it litterally took minutes to Google and look up what he was saying happened somewhere else where RF were involved. Most here didn't, instead, they shot the messenger. It's that tribal mentality that is blighting social discourse for the first couple of decades in the 21st century. I picked my team so I'm right and if it goes wrong, it's not me, there is a conspiracy working against me. Anyway, it beer o'clock. See you all next week.

It doesn't matter if he was invested or not. What he said about the patents was fact. Same with Puma. Who cares what his personal agenda was. What he said would happen with RF did happen. How are either of them disruptive if what they say will happen did happen. It's that old saying, facts don't care about your feelings. I'd rather have balance with facts and not trust me bro, I'm in the business.

Weird they are bring removed but you have to ask why. Why would, LSE remove the posts, are they in on the scam too? More likely, someone reported the post and it was auto removed. Why would PH be shorting a minnow like SAR? To what end, the SP isn't moving enough to make any profit and let's not wash over the fact that there aren't any significant shorts open on SAR! People are always willing to believe something that fits their own view, an example was how people used to fawn over WorkingInPhama because he said he had inside news. Soon dissappeared when GSK weren't infact keeping 737. On the flip side, actual knowledgeable posters like Fadec were castigated for stating facts. When it came to patentd, Fadec was the best poster on this board, bar none. Only, some here didn't like what he was telling them so they attacked him instead.

I'm not saying AIM isn't corrupt but we are where we are because there is no demand for shares and we have a dilutative finance package where the financer holds all the cards. With no major news anticipated until 1b data is out and we are looking at a tough year for the share price.

The good news is, we are funded, the lights will stay on until 1b data is out so, although it is very high risk. The shares are cheap as chips.

I agree, with you but it only works when there is no demand for shares. If there is a large demand to trade, buy or sell. The SEAQ system gives them their margin on a plate and it all runs smoothly with no manipulation. We've been here before and we'll probably see a much lower SP before it gets better. I'm treating it as a buying opportunity but only with disposable income each month.

But Laz, you are one of the more switched on posters on this board. You know that Mm's can't hold back the tide if it wants to go the other way. Most AIM stock trades on the SEAQ system. This system allows the Mm's to facilitate trade and the take whatever the difference the bid and ask is. It's simple and crude but it works well for illiquid stock. You can always find a buyer for the opposite seller. It means they can take an order and set their own price for it. But, if the market moves and the other mm's change the bid, then there isn't really much they can do. The short answer is, they can only suppress the movement when demand is low.

This in a nutshell is why the RF deal is bad for the SP. Until they are all out, there will always be a seller because they can't lose, we keep giving them shares until they have been paid back. They only way out is news that creates demand for shares. Right now. Anyone buying (that incluses me) can be pretty certain the sp will go down before it goes back up.

Yes, smart but are you saying it's adequate? A bit bit better than no deal? It isn't enough to entice sustained buying and that's what is needed to counter the RF selling. Good that it's moving again but 737 was the one hope that could've returned some short term value. Now that's not an option so we wait for significant news on 1801. I honestly think that means waiting for 1b data. I think SAR will have potential parters in waiting but they will want to see 1b data. It is, what it is.

Yes, krusty I checked too. though, I dont think they are reported if under a certain threshold.

I think a lot here are a bit nieve to how the markets work. Of course PH the organisation could short SAR. They have hundreds if not thousands of clients. Are you all saying that they can't short any company that is a client in some way? They'd never get any clients if that was the case. Neither would any of the other big brokers, if it was a rule.

SAR are being shorted because 737 news has now been announced and it was lacklustre, to say the least.

IMO, there isnt any anticipated news, not even the end of 1a, that will stop the downward trajectory. RF get more shares in a couple of weeks and will need to be issued more at some point because they won't have got thier money back yet. IMO We'll be dilluted by 5 million shares by the time they are out.

I said at the end if last year, that 2024 is going to be tense. Some shareholders will wobble and a lot of name calling with happen here. Having said that, I will keep buying in small amounts down to my old average of 0.74p or 37p in today's money. If we go lower than that, I'm drawing a line under it and will just sit on my holding until near end of phase 2. I am prepared for a tough year though.

If I remember right. The deal was done just before the p2b data was readout. If 1801/2 get that far, and TAK279 is still progressing, then we need to have equal to or better data to warrant a similar valuation. 1801 phase 2 is likely to start mid 2025 with the readout being in 26 or even 27. A 4 billion valuation, would be worth waiting for but it is a long time for the real long termers here. IMO, there is every chance of a buyout before then but at a lower valuation. I think it is unlikely that we will get any offers until 1b data is ready so maybe early 2025. Again, if 1801 1b data is in line or better than TAK279 at the same point, then, with tyk2 compounds, we are looking at valuation in the high 100's of millions before we get to P2 data readout. The waiting is frustrating but if progressing thfn the price goes up the longer we wait.

Great research from HBD but IMO, barking up the wrong tree. Can't see why they would license 737 when the have thier own chk1. Also why woukd CPF let them license it? Surely, there would be some development clauses/milestones in the contract to protect the compound being shelved like Sierra did. For me, I think this deal will be much like the one we had for Aurora. Short term to see what they can do to move it along. If not, it will be handed back.