Member Info for Porky9

@daibelts
Just put snap shot up on my twitter feed for you:-
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1654692605362307072

So they have 9 active which is quite a lot, what i notice over the last year is Peel Hunt (PEEL) drive this quite a bit, maybe its their client base? No idea.

You will likely get 6.9p on small volume but for chunky sells/buys paying closer to the published price. Some here i know just trade this on small margins, personally i cant be ****d with that but each to their own.

This will start moving up a gear IMO once she finally gets the bloody drill rig in the ground and starts her first Spud. Then you can enjoy watching some volume and those 9 MMs battling it out all day.. happy times...

GL

Interesting Calculation: Obvious: 1,000 Grams = 1 KG
Capacity at FULL production: 54,000 KG per year
So that's 54 million Grams
US Wholesale Spot Price today is $ 2.29 a gram
https://www.cannabisbenchmarks.com/reports/u-s-cannabis-spot-index-april-21-2023/
So 54 million times $ 2.29 = $123,660,000
$ to £ = .79
£ 978m Revenue Potential a Year - so what am i missing here?

Now ok, ok they are still a way off full production and initial first crop is going to be small, we don't know the quality and we don't know what it was pre-sold for, will no doubt be at massive discount and we don't know what the true production costs will come in at, nor do we know if the cannabis spot price will go up or down over the next year, its 20% down since April 22. so we have a lot of variables at this early stage.

But, with the share price at .18 after this short bull run we are now up to £22m mcap. Buying of the original location and equipment was twice that and I'm no expert in flower growing but come on lets say they completely fck it up, crop quality poor, slow to roll it out, run into labour issues, production issues, corruption and they only reach say 10% capacity we are still talking a potential £100m revenue company?

Kind of still feels like a no brainer to buy at this level. They claim to have enough working capital and revenues from this first crop will boost that significantly. Of course this is the casino that is AIM so we should always air on the side of caution.

Personally I'm close to doubling my money, so will sell half so that I'm in for free to totally de-risk but on a 12 mth window looks like the odds are slightly stacked in our favour maybe?

I only stumbled on this play from following KNB so its not yet on the radar of a lot of investors, always nice to get in ahead of the curve.

Anyhow, good luck whatever your call but so far so good.

Read about this at lunch time today from @JasonPugh but wanted to get chance to verify:-

Not sure if Valirx lost Cathy all together to Milner Therapeutics or if its a job she can do alongside the Chief Scientific Officer Role at Valirx?

Anyhow she is now Executive Director at Milner all the same.

https://twitter.com/cathy_jts/status/1651204494099611653
https://www.milner.cam.ac.uk/milner-team/

If she has left Valirx all together, that's a real loss of talent. Retaining quality talent is always difficult and this is why its essential to have at least a 24 mth working capital runway to ensure they don't have any job security issues.

Without doubt this is a talent loss and they will struggle to replace. IF she has gone all together I do wonder why she decided to leave? Shame.

Pork's

@Metom
You raising the caps lock at me.. LOL
Have a good weekend, take care.
que sera sera

Metom,
If the BOD buy it shows they have confidence. That installs confidence in shareholders.

You could argue that IF they though they were going to do a mega sized deal which would drive the market cap higher over the next year or so they would want to buy in at these prices, they are closest to the action and can guide the business to success.

The board not buying sends the wrong message IMO.

@Iceman
Don't be so ridiculous,
Look they get 201 over the line and different situation.
You cant have a chat BB like an echo chamber can you? What's the point in that?
We should be discussing how they can turn this around?
See how events unfold

Anyhow us chatting here makes FA difference
They deliver results the SP will take care of itself.
The Board then might actually start buying themselves, you never know Stella might put her hands in her pocket.
Says it all

@Iceman
Not without results, market is sick to death of Jam Tomorrow stories and this one's continued raise/spend/consolidate record and scant regard for shareholders investment.
They need to deliver - end of.

Even after this little pump run.

There is only Peel Hunt (PEEL) left that will take stock off you at 9.5p, the rest are 9p and under, CENKOS (CNKS) the house broker will only give you 8.5p and Joh Berenberg JBER are on 8p.

Lets see

Don't hear Iceman shouting about that....

Also, most is on T trades and its sold again when the invoice needs paying. We see the same cycle every week or so.

Adam
You can turn this around, I know you will give them the opportunity to present a decent forward plan, drop buy and build for now and get a grasp of the legacy pipeline but if that is not resolved at the AGM you have options.

I think you are already stuffed regarding avoiding a discounted raise because of the current agreed spending commitments as they stand tbh BUT during July if you are not liking the forward plans following the AGM nothing to stop you putting a resolution together, 28 days notice to call a meeting with proposal for change. You would get SH backing for sure and you could be voted in from 1/9 - I think you should seriously consider it. Please consider it.

Also, you don’t need to be full time, you could transition to NED a few hours a month just to guide direction once you have cleared out the dead wood and got the right drivers in situ. You have to be disappointed in Kevin, Gerry and Martin their performance has been woeful and I don’t believe Suzy can possibly be enjoying being CEO, she’s a fantastic scientist but just in the wrong role it’s clear as day.

Anyhow, you know what you are doing, events just need to play out for now, see what they outline shortly. Take care now

Nice to see the SP building nicely, more in the tank as the mcap has not yet reached the acquisition value of the land, crop and process plant without considering future production sales values. So looking good.

What surprised me was how quick Canabis grows, if he’s getting four crops out on rotation that’s fairly impressive. Question now will be what the volume of the first crop comes out like and what the pre sale value was for the flowers.

Annual capacity of 54,000 kg of flowers once in full production so once we know what the wholesale price comes out like per kg we can work out what the annual sales potential is here, that’s the unknown bit at the moment, unless anyone here knows what the Germans currently pay for wholesale per kg?

All eyes on the RNS for first cut.

Also, no concerns on them continually selling the flowers, we can forget the UK market whilst we indulge and choke in red tape and lack of vision and snail pace MHRA approval of medical devices for delivery of the medicine but over in Germany his market is massive, I understand he is also looking outside to other markets Israel, Canada etc but I would say the demand for Germany alone is massive v the supply so future sales is practically nailed on, it’s what volume he actually delivers and of course the crop quality.

Lot to like, let’s see what the first crop figures look like that will be the acid test.

Totally agree Nick, I want to see 201 on trials, if it can do some good let’s see it happen. See what the results are.

I would honestly rather see 201 in the hands of a major like AZN, Merck etc that have the funding to progress 201 into trials even if the resulted in zero upfront payment for VAL but a £5m milestone or something like that on results.

Sitting on a shelf gathering dust whilst we wait nearly two years and counting for this two bit US start up to try and get some funding is really not good enough. We were not investing into backing 201 for that outcome

Anyhow, we are where we are as upsetting as that is, Suzy needs to act on this for sure, I think the entire SH community feel the same way

* Suzy and Gerry were 100% involved previously. Gerry was on the BOD and presided over the previous placings and consolidations and when the company went to brink of bankruptcy. And now acting in exactly the same capacity.

* 4D Pharma has FA to do with this AIM play, just another penny share in the same sector that ultimately crashed out the index. You can’t win them all. Penny shares are high risk plays, period. You take your chances, half the time they are not telling you the full facts. What they don’t say is more revelling than what they do say.

* Mark Treharne is on the Management team, I never said BOD but what I did say was he is the first Development manager I know of that hasn’t brought any business in. In this role, you are good as your last sale frankly. VAL have delivered zero revenue in 15 years, come on?

* Let’s see shall we on the placing. My call is nothing revenue producing will land in H1, I am 100% convinced THX won’t come good and in order to meet the current business plan objectives a sixth raise is the only alternative way to get working capital in and they are veterans at raising cash.

* I would argue that cash is not being controlled that well because admin costs are up 27% and this is at a time when biotech’s are battening down the hatches and reducing overheads not increasing them.

* We only have 100m shares in issue? We had under 30m shares in issue only a short while ago, with every raise it gets bigger and the next one I believe will add another 40m to 50m to that figure.

* You keep saying 1-2p downside and 100-200p upside. Keep telling yourself that. The SP has just as much chance of returning back to 3.5p April 21 level as it does increasing. You can still loose 100% of your investment with penny shares no matter what price they are, don’t be so ridiculous.

Let’s see what happens shall we…

@PM2022
You mention how the “old management” tried to bankrupt the company and how Suzy took it from half a million value to present day. Initially, I thought like that but in reality, Suzy, Kevin and Gerry were part of the old team and since her tenure we have had five placings and about to go into our sixth and IMO unfortunately we are being proved that the old ethos is very much still alive as it was back then.

Further, I would argue that the decision not to raise whilst waiting on THX to deliver and end up with that emergency raise at 10p on the AGM was also reckless, funds had practically run out and had they not had the headroom to issue shares it would have been game over. So, you could argue the “new management” tried to bankrupt the company in the same way.

The decision by Suzy to stick by THX resulted in that final hour raise BUT Gerry the CFO also resided over that, why wasn’t he advising Suzy how dangerous that was for the business financially? And if he was, why wasn’t she listening? So, IMO he is just as culpable as Suzy.

I would argue that cash was originally well managed, now I would argue that spending is massively increasing at a time when most of the biotech sector are battening down the hatches and trying to preserve cash. They can’t run cash down to the wire again as they have no headroom shares to issue now and need shareholder approval. So, the raise must come earlier in H2 to ensure they can remain viable as a going concern.

As for the new strategy, I agree with you it’s probably the right call BUT its going to take time and more capital to see it through. I am not sure about the buy and build part of the strategy as raising capital at lower market caps results in more dilution, that part of the strategy should probably be put on hold for now but there are no signs, yet they are ditching that part of the business plan.

@PatientInvestor (Previously Iceman and St Tropez)
Ramp away, the proof will indeed be in the delivery but don’t hold your breath waiting for THX to pay up on 201 our flagship pipeline drug. Not sure how long Suzy will allow that debacle to continue for, but it must be nearing an end soon? Its killing their reputation by the hour. She needs to Act not ignore it.

As for most AIM Coys live on placings with no chance of making money, oh come off it, yes, the poor ones are proving that but, the ultimate goal is to support to see them into giant profitable companies.

@Badsterman
My call for radical change is not “nonsense” I have said countless times I rate Suzy as a scientist that is her domain but under her tenure so far as CEO the results, lack of control of THX, other decisions made, and consequences of those decisions has proven poor. She needs to focus on what she knows inside out and that’s not the commercial side.

Your reference to rather having Suzy as CEO than the “reckless charlatan from 4D” I presume you are referring to Duncan, is hardly a good example, is it? It’s a bit like saying I would rather Ralf Harris baby sit the kids, than Jimmy Saville!

Ultimately, Duncan lied to shareholders telling them they had a 12-month cash runway ahead when in reality the loan capital arrangement was being pulled and wasn’t telling shareholders about it. A diabolical case of poor fiscal control and nondisclosure.

With Suzy we are currently in the dark on THX and if she wont update shareholders on what the proof she has seen that the funding is happening, then perhaps show Adam to comment but at some point, Shareholders deserve further disclosure.

Meanwhile, on the fiscal control side I’m not so convinced, five raises. And costs escalating north again in a biotech financial drought, and previously taking us to the wire with an emergency raise, really, is that good fiscal control?

Let’s see how events unfold!

@Rightback
Very true rightback, they don’t do any research do they: 16 raises, 3 consolidations and still now non delivery against time lines, no revenue in 15 years and more cash required. Yet the pump crew will keep posting how the THX deal will be completed any moment.

@Badsterman
The only clown here is you.
You know FA about my investment record, just assumptions based on nothing.
What is key to this specific BB is WHAT Valirx deliver, not what is discussed here. The business is losing confidence of its shareholders by not delivering and letting the THX situation continue. Suzy is a great scientist but poor CEO we are yet to be proved otherwise

Let’s see what they deliver shall we, but it won’t be an RNS saying THX are transferring £1.3m to them that’s for sure. If that happens you might see me start flying...

@PPC
Agreed, but don't forget he has the option to call a 28 day resolution for vote at ANY time, so he can afford to see what the forward plans look like and then make a move if not happy, in this situation affording Suzy maximum time to get it right.
No pressure on him.
Interesting times indeed......

A “Plan B “could be something like: -

June – AGM SH vote to dump Kevin/Gary and Martin – keeping Suzy as CEO until time to step down into a head of sciences role whilst new CEO found.

Adam joins as NED one day a week to support the transition and helps find/ interview a new CEO a CFO and find two more industry NEDs. For the board.

That could also work but I’m inclined to think Adam will want to give Suzy every last opportunity to come through hence might give her that bit more time.

We will see.

Frankly, I don’t care how we reach change as long as change happens, however we get there. With Adam on board can you just imagine the difference here?

He could position this, sort the lot, sort out how legacy and new projects are managed really drive this. He would get lots of backing, new money, fully restore shareholder confidence, I really think it would be a transformation where all shareholders benefit and moreover, we actually get potential drugs like 201 into stage trials, no more wasted opportunities.

Could be a storm before the calm but ultimately proves to be a blessing, frankly.

Good Luck

IMO Suzy not going anywhere, I genuinely can’t see enough votes for her to be removed as CEO without an alternative proposed. So, IMO the status quo will be maintained, and they will be re-elected, and our pain will last a bit longer unfortunately – but it’s a process.

However, IMO this situation is not insurmountable.

She is a bloody good scientist, and we certainly don’t want to lose her from this business, I think all SH agree on that, she just can’t negotiate to save her life, lacks commercial acumen, and lacks decent guidance. So ideally a move to head Sciences is the call where she excels.

This means a new CEO and obviously we all want Adam, but Adam may not have the time to do it BUT I don’t see why he couldn’t at least take on an NED role and guide this business in the right direction, work on it one day a week, paid in shares options if you like on say a two year deal to get this business positioned correctly.

When the discounted placing lands In July/ August and it will, they can’t leave it until the end of the year and risk not getting it approved before they run out of cash, I think Adam will be forced to make a move then to protect his interests.

We can’t keep doing the same things and expecting a different outcome so my View, for what its worth, Plan A is:

June- Status Quo all re-elected.
July/ August Placing - Adam issues 28-day notice end of July to stand as CEO with Suzy to head sciences and proposes Gerry, Kevin, and Martin to all stand down.
August - SH vote to approve and it gets passed.
1st September - Adam joins and looks to find a full-time industry CEO if he can’t work full time himself with Adam staying as NED for two-year tenure after appointment, a CFO to put in proper fiscal control, two other Industry connected NEDs that also invest alongside.
Adam then removes Mark and appoints an experienced development manager.

Appreciate my view is brutal but we need a clean sweep here, let’s not sugar coat it we need to rid them of this carefree spend what we like raise/spend/consolidate attitude and change the change the company ethos for the better

My call is for radical change.

Pork's