Member Info for Porky9

@PatientInvestor (AKA Iceman888)
You have been telling posters news tomorrow, next week month on a continual basis.

You are the star of Jam Tomorrow tall stories. I promote you to position of Top Miner of this Jam Butty Mine having promoted you above PM2022 who is so full on Jam that he is asleep at work now and has not helped promote the Jam Butty mine tall stories.

Meanwhile, The next news updates will be:-

* Financial Update - delayed most likely as it confirms increased cash burn which will have a negative impact on the SP and you will need to buy then to try and help hold the SP up.

* Date for the AGM and resolutions for exiting board to be re-elected - will get passed

* Resolution for Head Room for more shares to be issued - will get passed this time providing business plan backs it up.

There will be no cash from THX for 201 during H1 hence the need for the capital raise which I’m still expecting in July to support the forward plans for the Buy and Build business plan they are at the start of. Not at ANY point have they said there is a change in this policy nor would I expect one.

This is a LONG term investment. The current business plan needs more cash to support it. I think the BOD have been very clear on this. So why you keep posting these contra messages is beyond me. As for the mcap, £10m value for an early stage biotech based on where they are today with zero revenue in 15 years is obscenely high frankly.

Will we soon know how events unfold but come July if still no cash from THX the money has to come from somewhere and they are on AIM for a reason and that’s to help raise capital as they grow. Good luck

Oh dear, asking for posts to be removed that are contra to anything positive
Well I guess if you just want to be in an echo chamber you reap what you sow
Good Luck

@Datron
I take on board your comments. For clarity I absolutely love this business, it’s a terrific SaaS business materially undervalued BUT like most on AIM the past free flow of cash has come all to easy. We are now in a financial drought and as great as the business is, it simply doesn’t have the cash runway to survive without a cash injection

Excluding the glaring fact that it needs stronger financial governance, needs to reduce its CAC materially bring in some short term overhead reductions, I estimate it probably needs about £7m cash injection to give it a 24 month runway and sufficient wiggle room to meet the objectives. So we are talking material dilution.

I’m kind of hoping that an AIM fund, PE player or some II out there will see the potential of this and give them the lifeline they need. IF the house broker can secure that support I believe the world and their uncle will buy in here. This sector is red hot.

But for now, I can’t imagine anyone buying in here with a major placing due any moment or worse, risk of no placing and it going private and SH losing the lot that’s the problem.

As a side, I understand SAAS very well but even I was shocked at the cash burn relating to CAC, I question if too much Commission is given away to resellers or if a change of direction to a direct sales force would be more appropriate. Addition to the board of some experienced SAAS background NEDs could also help?

See how it goes

Good luck

@JoshCLSE
Yes, but I’m still down for a late August Spud, they actually need the ground wet really for optimum drill conditions.
Keeping everything crossed
Good luck

@deep100
Cheers, Never gone away really just this play you could write a book on, let’s face it.
Silly buying season starts as we move closer to spud date which is more likely Aug
Meanwhile traders in and out but momentum starts building for sure.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if they did hit a Helium stream this time.... we can but dream lol

Lorna seams nice enough, can’t do much worse than David anyhow, I swear to God he must have been just sitting in the sunshine drinking cans of beer all day. Let’s face it FA was done for 18 mths he must have been doing something with the time :)

Take care

@GMY38
True, things can happen but not always as expected:-

Mrs Porky Smiled at me the other day, a big smile with a certain look in her eye..
I thought helloooo my luck is in
I said, what would really turn you on
She thought for a moment and said in a sexy voice
You outside, with the lawn mower, cutting the grass :)

As I say, things happen but not always as expected...
The lawn looks fab.

@Hawaifiveo
Speed is the essence here for sure, you need an update asap.
I keep everything crossed for you that they sort out an alternative funding situation to fully resolve quickly and you get a fast bounce back of the SP.
Problem you have is you are right that shorter's and traders will see this as an easy target in the meantime hence why speed is so essential.

Slightly different situation but, i got stung on one of my AIM plays last year 4D where a banking loan facility was pulled just like this. It also spookily had a "distressed seller". Then shorter's started attacking it and the SP kept falling. This made it increasingly harder to raise against the business with reducing value. Next they suspended the stock and most know the rest, it never relisted.

A big positive here is that its a wholly owned subsidiary, not the main listed business hence, worst come to worst, if they put the subsidiary into administration could they not then carry on trading with the main company and phoenix the subsidiary? Would need to research more but wonder if that's a possible restructure option but don't know what guarantees the main listed business gave the subsidiary.

Shareholders need to keep a VERY close eye on events here, the fact this opened 60% down and not moved much makes me wonder if they are lining up a placing at this level to bridge that subsidiary debt situation? Lets hope so that would be another way to resolve this,

Also, regarding the "distressed seller" yeah right, the chairman, how many times do we see this on AIM? Utter, utter BS and i don't buy into any of it. Distressed my ars@. You don't sell down your good stocks in your portfolio at discount that you know are likely to bounce back to cover losses on the other investments that went south. You can take it as red that they likely know something and its more than you know. So watch that one also.

Finally, obviously as always SH in the dark and don't know what really is going on behind the scenes the full details of why the loan facility was pulled. Bit much to pull a credit facility on one quarters poor trading, so probably more to that also.

Good luck all on this, trust no one and keep a close eye on this AIM play would be my opinion. On paper it looks sound/cheap in relation to assets held and current group trading but we may not be seeing the complete picture. What they don't tell you is often more important than what they do say these days on AIM stocks.

Can’t not reply to @PM2022s nonsense post at 19.07.

Firstly, two events will most likely impact IF Adam joins the board or not.

A. Results Statement due now although could hold back to as long as possible to first week of June but at some point, must be published. This will confirm the increased cash burn and lower the Share Price. IF no cash in from THX during H1 this will add to down pressure on the Share Price, and I suspect highly likely. SP 7p at this point.

B. The event in 1 will trigger either a straight placement in July, I forecast at 4-5p level OR some kind of merger deal (PYC?). But more cash is required for sure based on current buy and build business plan unless they change it.

Any placement proposed at 4p may likely result in Adam wanting to join to protect his investment following resolution raise and passing, welcome to the BOD with effect from 1st September is a possibility in that scenario.

In relation to @PM2022 specific points: -
1. No sugar coating it, sorry but giving 6% of your business away in lieu of what should be about 40k of broker fees is possibly the worst decision ever made. Do you think Suzy would be so quick to give up a percentage of her own personal stake in 401? I don’t think so. Also, CENKOS are NOT investors, the moment they take the warrants, yes, the cash goes to VAL but, the lot is sold on the open market adding more down pressure on the SP to us shareholders. We pay the price.

2. YES, I can guarantee that CENKOS will not bring any II to Valirx. They haven’t to date and moreover there is no financial incentive for them to do so and they haven’t secured support from previous placings it all been private sector. So I would say ZERO chance and time to dump them.

3. You are arguing against your own point, you are now saying its uninvestable by II by saying no II would invest because VAL are too early stage and never been revenue producing. If its not attractive to II, why should it be attractive to anyone else on that basis including us?

I totally disagree that you would rather dilution as a result of CENKOS money going to Valirx than money raised on the market. What you want is Money raised going into stock into sticky hands. An II family office or Investment company with a shares held on a 3-5 year plus min window is better for Shareholders than smash and grab trader shares or CENKOS diluting and then offloading onto the market.

Finally, Sorry but I’m actually going to put THX cash landing now at ZERO. I consider if they can’t raise cash during a Biotech financing boom, they have zero chance of doing it now in a sector financing drought. Why they are still entertaining this outfit is just beyond me.

Not long now until the forward plans are revealed.

Pork's

Why was that the priority call?
If anything is to annoy the hell out of a private investor it’s when Directors scrap share option price targets because they didn’t deliver and want them reissued at lower prices.

So does this mean that they can in effect buy 4.6% of the share capital increasing the shares in issue and sell them back immediately? Or worse, short the **** off the SP should it start recovering knowing they can buy the stock back with the the options?

Will be interesting what he says about options at the meeting but frankly they should be left alone. Add some new ones at 10p if they want an immediate lower target. The whole point of options is to give them something to work towards not just give them out as a freebie employee benefit. What next

@Webbo @Goomer
Fine, ignore my posts, have your echo chamber of a forum.

@PM2022
Here you go again... You are 95% certain that 201 will get done and you think its worth another 35p on the share price or moreover should add £35m to the current mcap. What world are you living in?

A) Something is only worth what someone will pay for it, period.
They cant get this two bit US operation to part with £120k of lab fees let alone the £1.3m first year of consideration money, if THX did pay the £1.3m frankly i would be worried sick if they could ever fund any later stage payments but getting the first part over the line would be nothing short of a miracle frankly.
B) What evidence have you seen to support your confidence the deal is 95% done after nearly two years because I haven't see ANY. Not a prospectus, Information Memorandum or Jack sod all ?

Look, I'm not just being cavalier here and saying, oh ditch THX for the sake of it, it will help the SP fall? I'm saying manage the shareholder expectation:-
Remove the exclusive arrangement from THX so VAL can seek out alternative deals. If THX want it to remain exclusive they at least pay over a non refundable deposit of say £200k or to support VAL. Valirx is a business NOT a charity.

At what point do you say enough is enough? It's been 2 years, is 3 years fair? is 4yrs? what about 10 yrs? - where do you draw the line? Meanwhile its lost progress that SH are funding BUT also as i keep saying damaging Valirx credibility, it needs sorting out.

@Harvey03
Yes down to 200,000 was 400,000 but its not relevant is it? The SH community here are investing because they think it can help make a different. In reality, the BOD are abusing that trust.

Not long now until the forward H2 plans, lets see what they put on the table.

Genuinely, knowing now where we are with 201, I would rather they had given the asset away for free to a major like AZN with a commitment to invest towards taking it to commercial success with a royalty at the end and see this drug ultimately actually changing lives, rather than it sit on a shelf gathering dust for two years whilst we wait to see if a start up can get funded or not.

Also, if THX are really going to get 60 odd million of funding, I don’t know about 201 but they could buy the entire VAL legacy line and business for £11m at the moment, likewise any other biotech. If we are so cheap as claimed why hasn’t that happened already?

As for THX I would love to see the evidence they put to Suzy?

@Goomer @PM2022
That’s right you keep telling yourself that.
It is not me that decides when or when to raise cash or at what share price.
It’s not me that decides what policy to adopt regarding what they spend cash on at any given moment, the direction of the company with this tCRO they have started up that will need further cash in a Biotech funding drought and it’s not me that decides to give 201 away - that is down to the the BOD.
All now all at a time when the Biotech sector is under pressure.

You are just not getting it. Both of you miles off the mark with your ideology and constant suggestion that I want a really cheap entry price here. I genuinely 100% couldn’t care less. To clarify:
I would NOT buy this stock at 5p in its current format if I thought in doing so within another 12 months I would be hit with yet another discounted raise and diluted again and my value reduced yet again. On the reverse side of this I would BUY at 20p if I had confidence in the forward plans, the BOD to execute the plans AND moreover there were going to be no further dilutive placings. What you are not getting is I am looking at ROI Potential, will I make a good return over the next three years from this point or will I lose money being diluted to oblivion. You all know what I think and that’s why Stella isn’t buying just yet either.

@PM2022
As for 201 I put it at Zero that THX will get funded. So stop keep telling us for the last two years that we will have good news next week. I hope I’m proven wrong but this decision has been catastrophic for the businesses value, the boards credibility and the Shareholders. No point in sugar coating this.

@Nick
Is it priced in?
Depends if you think £11m for this business as it stands, knowing a further cash raise is going to land and knowing the current buy and build policy and increased cash burn will result in yet further additional placings down the line on the current tCRO plan and knowing how current legacy assets have been handled is a good price?
I say it’s mega expensive, I would not buy this company today for £11m as it stands.

Let’s see what the forward plans are from July and go from there, the message has been loud and clear they need to get it right, the BOD may surprise us, although I’m not holding my breath BUT we know what the options are if it’s still not on the right path?

My money is on Adam as CEO from 1st Sept with Suzy heading Sciences

Good luck

@Goomer
1. A good CEO will appreciate suggestions and consider alternative ideas. Doesn’t mean they have to implement them. I can tell you now, I would rather hear back from shareholders in companies I’m involved with than not hear anything and risk loss of support if they vote with their feet.

2. Should Adam decide later this year to push a resolution forward for change. He will need SH Support which he is sure to get BUT would also need to build a team around him. A business is bigger than one person.

3. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking comments on a certain BBs reflect a wider investment portfolio. Stocks/funds/trusts/bonds/property/PM/CFDs/non listed/etc can all be part of the mix before any consideration at all into penny shares/ riskier investments.

4. Don’t make it personal, likewise @A2B4C4 and @Metom. You don’t want a forum as an echo chamber, but I note the frustration, I actually want to help and might do that depending on how events unfold over the next few weeks and what the forward plans look like. I will try to back off posting for now but a balanced debate would be nice.

Take care all, Have a good Sunday.

Hi Adam,
So, what do I like? well OK In the spirit of positivity: -

Suzy - I think she is a fabulous scientist; I don’t think there is anyone more passionate about science than Suzy. It totally baffles me how anyone can get so excited over a peptide. Science is her domain for sure. She also cares about the business and wants to make a difference.

However, she lacks any commercial acumen and is totally naïve to the world of business. Its ruthless out there. I believe she is an honest broker and genuinely trusts what she is told whether that be sales spin from CENKOS or total BS from a slippery US sharp suit.

We need good people in positions that play to their strengths. She needs to move to head sciences and we need a commercially strong CEO appointed and a COO to help support that person on future deal negotiations.

Stella – Shrewd, professional, highly experienced in capital raising, governance, financial and M&A broker. A good non-Exec addition to the board. Probably three years to early and not investing (yet) but I still like her. No idiot.

Cathy – Cracking appointment at Labs, can’t fault her, brilliant appointment, lots to offer.

Zai – Strong solid pre-clinical project manager again a good quality appointment in my eyes

201 – I love 201 and it breaks my heart that something that could make a real difference has been handed over to a potless American two bit start up and we are still talking about it two years later without any calls to action.

Kings – Very early in on the journey but consider it could have long term potential.

As I posted previously the current issues with this business are not insurmountable, but they do need sorting out Adam all the same. As it stands, I consider the business practically uninvestable in its current format, it certainly won’t attract II support which It desperately needs as it stands. I consider it is not worth the current £11m value and under the current plan will need a placement in July as i see no event that will bring any money in otherwise. 15 years of trading without bringing in a bean of revenue is not sustainable especially in the current climate and the challenges this sector faces.

Unless you join the board and sweep out the dead wood, I believe it will continue as a raise/spend/raise/spend/consolidate operation until it can no longer raise cash or significant management changes are made to break this cycle.

If you decide to join the board later this year, I am confident you can make the required changes. I would also be happy to send you over a load of other ideas to help drive this forward, but changes are required at the top first as I see it and i believe the entire share holder community would be behind you if you take that leap - Good Luck

@Icemen
NO my 180 is just IRO VAL until these issues are sorted.
Non of it insurmountable but it needs sorting all the same.
A decision on THX needs to be made for a start. nearly 2 years and still not a bean.. come on.
Its a tough market currently but despite that i am actually a VERY positive person.
I have said before, i might support significantly in H2 if the situation improves, more so if Adam joins the board - that's what this play needs.
Have a good weekend
Take Care
Pork's

@Adam
For the love of God, its not me you need to keep calling into question its the BOD, they make all the decisions here, not me, i have been vocal and negative about the 201 deal from the moment the RNS landed telling us so.

We will know soon enough the forward plans from H2.
IF you don't like them, you can issue a 28 day special notice to call a general meeting, put a resolution together for who you want in or out and IF SH back the plan, come 1st September you could be starting your new job on the board.

BUT i suspect that's not what you want to do, which is also fine BUT don't expect current board to deliver a different result from doing all the same things - it wont happen they need proper direction.

Pork's
PS - LOL - Don't tell me about saving up, I'm not some teenager, I don't try and belittle you do i? the same respect returned would be appreciated. This is a discussion forum after all. We might disagree on points but unless they are explored how can anything change.

@Adam
"Investing" = Where sizeable capital is put to work, always best to at least try to do as much DD as possible, you can't cover everything and get it right all the time, but you can at least try BUT even then there are risks as nobody knows what's really going on in the business other than the BOD. That's why Directors buying or choosing not to buy is also a helpful signal.

"Punting/trading" = Doesn't matter about any DD, just go with trends, use spreads/ CFD's or plain buy sell on margins. Each to their own. Many are trading this stock fairly successfully.

BTW, your little dig regarding me looking at the patent records, this is in respect to 401. So what? I wanted to know if Investment made here into 401 would benefit Shareholders, I naively thought the asset was 100% owned by Valirx, yet in fact shareholders actually only own 55% of the asset. These are things i want to know about on trying to calculate future values for ROI.

Nothing is hidden, its all in the public domain but not easy to always spot quickly but no point in discussing much here, as you just want a forum that's an echo chamber hence why i never mentioned it here.

DYOR.

@Defiant-one
If they hold stock from 3p April 20 and sell at 9p April 23 that's a dam good ROI for a 36 mth investment.
Also, they can take the gains against this years allowance as we have just entered the new tax year so another win.
It's all relative to what price you brought in at.
Also, situations change, todays Bid price might look very attractive compared to where it might be in a few weeks time. Who knows.
You need cash to work for you in these markets. If a stock is stuck in a trading range you could also argue the lost opportunity elsewhere is also a factor.
You need to always evaluate with stocks if your reasons for originally buying still hold true and the same if you were to buy today.
Good Luck.

@OB
Have maximum respect for you as you know. You are a top guy. What is it they say, “better to be a lover than a fighter”?

Financial statement should be out this month unless they delay until June. Far too many issues that need fixing and gaps addressing for me and want to see how they deal with that. Ultimately, Adam is going to need to join the BOD IMO for direction.

July is my review point. I am confident of what’s coming hence why I’m holding off for now. Its not personal, its purely business. The H2 forward plan from July will be absolutely crucial this year and cash conservation essential to ride out the current sector downturn.

There is little “Investment” cash going in here currently as I see it, we are just seeing “trading” cash exchanging hands. That can change depending on how events unfold.

You are playing a very long game here OB, market events outside our control have probably extended that game however, markets are cyclical as I see it and it will come around. I know you will be there when that happens :)

Meanwhile, PM index doing great, I know you are also a fan of the shiny stuff.

Catch up soon. Take care now.

Pork’s

@Spero
I was thinking along those lines at first, that SH would just Fund the big dips in cash flow as they initially onboard a client like a traditional SAAS model hence the boom year you describe in your reply from the installed base the moment they slow down on exponential growth.

But, this is increased losses year on even if you were to treat deferred income as fully paid so I’m now thinking this “Partner First” policy could be where the issue is? I have no clarity but wonder if they are constantly paying these partners? Are they paying commission on renewals for example, are partners paid too much upfront? Somewhere in the chain too much money is leaving the business.

In my opinion, they need to be reviewing the cost base, I would probably drop this policy, adopt a direct sales first approach and try and get resellers down to 30 or 40% of sales. Don’t think SH would have an issue funding the SAAS model knowing year two renewals deliver big returns.

That COO appointment can’t come soon enough frankly