Member Info for Porky9

@hoosierdaddy

With respect please don’t come all holier than thou with me regarding ethics. You are pointing you anger in the wrong direction.

For almost two years, there has been ZERO payment from THX and 201 has sat precisely doing nothing to help anyone, anywhere. Does 201 work? We would all love to know but unless its out on trials we will never know will we?. It’s a total travesty frankly, two years wasted. The BOD is responsible for the THX decision, its cost both patients and shareholders yet the situation continues with no end in sight.

The Board could change events by delivering on what they say they will. THX was IMO the wrong call. Suzy got that decision wrong. Now we could get a surprise and they come through and deposit the £1.3m and i will have to eat my words but I just don’t see it. There may be genuine reasons why they still can’t get funded, but Suzy is responsible to Valirx shareholders not Thx and by rights should be explaining the situation. She needs to own it, draw a line under it and outline forward plans. The board are totally culpable for this decision.

I would say that the 201 decision has been the biggest damaging factor to the company’s value. We should hopefully get an update at the AGM shortly.

Pork’s

@PM2022

You don’t have a bloody clue. Read the CENKOS report, cash burn is closer to £2.4m pa providing it hasn’t increased higher than forecast. We won’t know until the results statement lands which is currently delayed until the AGM.

So at VERY best they have circa 7 mths cash runway from H2.

Meanwhile, there is not one event that will bring in that sort of cash in the short term other than a placing. The £1.3m contribution from THX would help but that’s not looking likely now is it, short of a miracle but there is still time and Suzy is unconcerned and confident so perhaps they will pay up.

The last possible day they can publish the financial results and hold the AGM is Friday 30th June 2023.

Would expect confirmation of same shortly.

With a maximum 7 mth cash runway ahead of them assuming cash burn is not higher than expected and is still in line with forecasts, I would imagine the board is fully focusing now on the forward plans to present.

Not long to find out

Delighted the options are sorted, phew, blessed relief that this number one priority has now been put to bed after yet another month, I don’t know about anyone else but SH can sleep easy now, I mean it’s not like there is anything more serious that needs dealing with....

Give me strength

@Nick

You actually make a really good point. She maintains nearly two years later that she’s totally confident and unconcerned. As you say she’s seen the evidence, so all being well we should get that RNS anytime soon to confirm the £1.3m from THX has hit the bank account.Benefit of the doubt and all that.

I might also start flying,....

At least they should update at the AGM with explanation, SH are certain to ask what the 201 position is IF not confirmed beforehand.

Good luck

@PM2022

No, No and No again

Stella is a bloody good NED addition to the board as far as I’m concerned. It’s possibly their best decision to date. Shrewd yes, but she is no mug. She will likely invest and possibly bring her network in when it’s commercially right to do so. At the moment this is NOT the time especially already declaring they Ideally need a 24 mth cash runway.

Highly likely IMO that Stella will support the next placing as that might be the case to get it over the line. Will know in due course but frankly I would be more concerned IF they can get placing support for £2.5m at all, rather than what price it might be at? It’s ugly out there currently in this sector.

@A2B4C4

STOP POSTING IN CAPS LOCK. CONTINUE TO POST IN AN ECHO CHAMBER THEN AND BLOCK MY VIEW POINT.

@PatientInvestor

I really don’t get your logic that it’s a good thing getting warrant cash in, but a placing is frowned upon. They BOTH equate to the same thing. Dilution. As far as I’m concerned, the last placing should NOT have given warrants out, its just a greedy way for the BOD to look at a way to bring extra cash in. It really wasn’t necessary and further it actually puts new investors off. Do I want to buy at 10p knowing at 14p I’m going to get diluted for sure? errm think I will pass.

@Nick

Kings can be worth one billion, it matters not, it won’t pay wages TODAY, its only actually worth what someone will pay you for it, but it won’t bring actual cash in unless a deal is signed involving a down payment. The question you should be asking is does this board have the skills and capability to negotiate such a deal at top table, my view is that they don’t, they have proven that they cant negotiate their way out of a paper bag, put simply the BOD lacks the skill sets in its current format.

@PNP

Lovely little write up but there is nothing wrong with new money coming in, what you ideally want is that coming in from a fund or Investment house so its sticky and takes out a percentage of the free flow stock. The issue here is that its only attracting traders. Suzy is not attracting II because of the decisions made, they don’t have the confidence. I can tell you I desperately tried to get a small boutique Investment business to take a TR position here, I was really close but when they gave 201 away to that start up, it just killed it. That decision alone illustrated a real level of commercial naivety IMO. I am simply awaiting the RNS confirming that THX can’t get funded. Hope I’m proved wrong but just can’t see it.

Adam is not a silver bullet here; he would be inheriting the current cash commitments and will need placing support BUT I totally agree he could change the focus. How utterly ridiculous to be even considering Buy and Build, acquisitions and wasting cash on PR companies, globe trotting around exhibitions with circa 7 mths max of cash runway left in a biotech funding drought when everyone else in the market is battening down the hatches. Just bloody fantasy.

We will see what they present at the AGM shortly.

Pork’s

What is real sad is that just like a lot of these plays, its only when they are right up against it they start taking cash burn more seriously and look at costs. The previous results albeit horrendous cash burn did show improvements.

The previous funding boom for biotech's on balance hasn't helped investors one jot IMO, money has come far too easy to some of these businesses and they just haven't valued it, just spent money without regard because well they can. Then they end up in dire trouble because they are stuck with previous spending commitments and now we are in a prolonged funding drought there are few places to turn.

Interested to see what the results come out like. I suspect there will be improvements but with the commitments and high pay roll how can you address that? the BOD will be feeling the heat now for sure. Hope they can pull something out the hat for sure.

Presentation on Investor meet company on the 25th, good luck.

@Bewlay

Sorry keep forgetting, it’s because I have it in my higher risk penny share portfolio, it is main market as you say..

Yes, but we are not in Germany are we? LOL

Meanwhile, CENKOS the house broker have moved to 8.2p on the bid, do they know already what the plan is for H2 and what the placing price will likely be?

Interesting how events unfold here for sure....

@anelka69

Sales NOT an issue. Demand in Germany alone far far outweighs supply, if anything should ultimately add to price hardening. They need the product. Suspect initial pre sold crops to be at discounted rate to get supply going but after that they can increase prices.

Yes they are in other talks, that's great, best never to rely on one main client or sales region but the one aspect of this i have no concerns on is the buying side so this just doesn't concern me. The market is enormous.

What this will hinge on IMO is the crop quality and how quick they can get up to full capacity.

The site is capable of producing over 54,000 kg of dried medical cannabis flowers per annum in full production but that relies on 4 crops per annum. Its VERY quick growing.

So the first crop report due shortly including what was pre sold is going to tell us if the quality is there and how far away until full production they are.

The very rough calculation i did a few weeks back based on the site being at full production within 24 months, basis of 38,000 kg of quality, allowing 30% slippage for for some poor quality flowers, distribution issues, other business impacts, using current point prices gave us a potential market cap in the region of circa £100m.

Ambitious???? could be, things do go wrong on AIM and could be longer delays getting up to full production however, today we sit at £25m mcap, the site was acquired for £40m was it? So looks like we still have a lot left in this one.

Some here looking to break the penny? not complaining if we do that's for sure.

DYOR and GL

Very Happy, frankly the longer before we get the first crop report the better at this rate :)

M'cap today £25m, Asset Value £ 40m and estimate 2 year value to be £100m IF they get a) the crop quality right b) can process 4 crops p.a and c) get the entire area in production.

What's not to like....

Happy Hunting

Pork's

@paternostpauper

Brilliant Precis of the current situation, the good news is that nothing is insurmountable, but it does need sorting and will take time.

I Would add the following points for discussion: -

1. IMO Suzy has totally proven she lacks the commercial acumen and is commercially too naive to be CEO. Far too many commercial basic errors now. I also think she is actually too nice. A people pleaser and IS being walked all over as a result. A brilliant scientific mind and we DO NOT want to lose her from this business at any cost. Whilst the buck stops with her, who is advising her? Are you telling me that non of the remaining board members have challenged ANY of her poor decisions? IF not why not? They are also culpable and if she’s just in a YES echo chamber that also needs resolving.

ANSWER: Create new position make her Chief Operating Officer (COO) Adam is CEO during transition stage until new CEO found and then he becomes chairman if he cant commit to full time.

2. The first time VAL were within days of lights out Gerry Desler was the CFO. 18mths later, the second time we were within days of lights out before the next emergency raise, he was still the CFO. Now to be fair the second time its possible, we don’t know, that he told Suzy the risks of waiting for THX and them not coming through in time, benefit of the doubt, maybe the guy is distracted with other business interests? Who knows however, in my mind its time to call time on this. It illustrates poor fiscal control and as part of “making VAL great again” to rebuild VALs credibility we need a stronger CFO than that, sorry its time to go.

ANSWER: Find and appoint a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO)

3. I fail to see what value Martin Lampshire (NED) adds to the board likewise Kevin Cox (NEC) they have both resided over this fiasco and endorsed it. Enough is enough.

ANSWER: Remove both and add two NEW biotech industry experienced NEDs to the board to add. Ideally two that would also invest alongside the business and have some skin in the game not just free no risk options. This would also boost credibility.

4. Unfortunately, it is a bit of a poison chalice for Adam to come on board now but my god we need him. This reason being due to the decisions this board has made they need cleaning up. He is also stuck with the existing spending commitments and the till is almost empty again. To give him sufficient financial runway to fix this by my calculation he needs at least £2.5m raise if not a bit more as that will be tight.

ANSWER: He supports the raise, get the bad news out in the open, deliver total honesty regarding all legacy drug positions, dump THX etc and moves 201 to a stable biotech, SH will all get behind him and we support him to “make VAL great again”.

There is no easy out here. Adam can afford to wait until they present at the AGM, see forward plans and if not happy propose resolution to start from 1/9 but either way ultimately, this

The big problem with the trading update is that we can see the growth which is superb but we can’t see the cost of that growth. The issue is the CAC without doubt. Spending far too much money on client acquisition.

It’s really difficult to fully know how much cash they need to reach Break even. As a rough guess It looks like they could do with about £6m, that’s gives them 24 mth runway assuming similar growth and costs to get that growth as existing in order to generate an installed client base that would cover the base line costs and then start delivering a profit. that’s what it looks like but none of us are close enough to the figures.

I think anything less than £6m would give added pressure. They need some sort of improved fiscal control to really get on top of the numbers.

AIM annoys me all the time, we are big boys we can take it, let’s see some honesty around what they really need. A good FD could look at the CAC and accurately pinpoint where they cross into profit. If we had that information, we could support the placing confident it will be enough.

Anyhow, See what comes next, they have authority now so let’s see where the placing falls and then SH can get behind them.

Appreciate volumes are thin but come on, a 25% spread hardly encouraging to buy knowing you immediately lose a quarter of your investment.

Maybe see an RNS at open in view of the press coverage.

Would a £3m raise be enough?

Research and development expenses 597 242

===== ======== ========

Sales and marketing expenses 1,190 569

===== ======== ========

General and administration expenses 3,804 2,000

===== ======== ========

Impairment (reverse impairment) of financial assets carried at amortised cost (59) 598

===== ======== ========

Other expenses - including acquisition and listing costs 1,448 1,172

===== ======== ========

Operating loss (6,781) (4,574)

===== ======== ========

Cash at Dec 22 was £ 3.2m so current cash burn circa £560kpcm

IF cash burn as existing since end of last year, to end of this month they should have £ 400k left. If they can only raise the £3m then its going to be tight but the new CEO sounds VERY experienced so that is a major factor as long as he is not joining on a silly salary and his£500k is to build the business not just pay him!

@Bewley

Yes, you are right. sorry I have this lumped in my higher risk penny share portfolio with AIM plays.

@Oddlyeven

Yes, £100m but obviously need to have the entire set up at capacity and more important deliver the quality. Poor crop quality, production or logistics issues could cause some issues but certainly you would think should be worth more than the £40 mil or what ever it was paid for the initial plant and acreage.

Anyhow, so far so good, all eyes now on the crop report, sounds like a quote from trading places :)

@dai2belts

Sorry for delayed response

Yes to DMA have full trading access to data.

Yes, during open market hours its not zero. They spring to life! i was just replying to your question on active brokers.

Anyhow, this is the calm before the storm, interest will pick up when she finally starts to spud later this year. then it will be down to if she can finally strike Gold...

Good luck

For clarification:

Consensus is that she has taken the job last week in addition to her role at Valirx. She has not left the company.

Also, you will note that i added the debate, outside of stock market hours, i also did post that it could be a secondary position. So this was not intended for "game play" or "shorting" as suggested, i NEVER short, it was to debate the situation.

Anyhow, matters not, but whilst you do get NEDs on multiple boards its less common with management team staff.

Personally, probably comes as no surprise but, i don't like the practice myself at lower staff levels. In a number of SMEs i have supported they have had active policies that you cant work with a second company, they want you 100% focused on the job in hand only, so Valirx have been very flexible and accommodating here.

IF everyone starts doing second jobs, before you know it, nobody is focused on the primary objectives. Lets not forget, whilst Valirx is on the AIM its still a small company with low staffing numbers.

Anyhow, lets see how events unfold, not long to wait....

A tumble weed just went past as we all wait as wait does....

Market still in shock i think since the results statement. We all know the survival placing is coming its just a case of how much and what price then we can all move forwards.

Hopefully next weeks AGM gives us some ideas, kind of looks like its going to be 1.5p or 1.3p or something as MMs are keen to keep in this holding range. As long as they can get a deal done that's the main thing.

Always nervous of these type situations in case they try and crash the price down further to take it private. I can see loads of private equity players watching this one, the mcap is ridiculous but the CAC is still too high IMO.