Member Info for Porky9

@Metom
LMOL You silly sod:-

The Sunday roast was not reference to going out to dinner, its a broadcast podcast that Zac Mir does every few weeks when he discusses AIM stocks in the market. Suzy was on the program.

The fact its a "Roast" was met with much amusement as i am a "Pig" and a number wanted a hog roast that Sunday instead :)

If i was lucky enough to go on a dinner date with Suzy i'm sure it would be a perfectly nice and fun meal time.

Take care now

Pork's

@HD
Well it is what it is, What they deliver on is what counts

@PM2022
Not relevant - GSK has a market cap of £59 bn. That's how ridiculous your comparison is, you are not comparing apples with apples. VAL has pre-clinical assets to fund, now a lab and more mouths to feed, and yet in 15 years has delivered ZERO revenue. Its still at the start of a long journey.

Anyhow, think dream what you like

@PM2022
No, you don't go off facts, you only highlight the bits you want to talk about.

This morning in relation to non payment of the lab fees by THX you commented "It's not 10k forever is it. The deal was expected to go through at the time but got delayed therefore has no relevance"

When in fact that was not true. VAL put out an RNS on the 5th Jan 2022:-
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VAL/signs-service-agreement-with-theoremrx-qm2adrpvmmhpx3r.html

This RNS clearly stated that it was a separate service agreement with THX to support the prep work Valirx was doing whilst THX was on its way to being funded to meet the license deal. To quote:-
" This signature confirms the commencement date of the Service Agreement to be 1 November 2021"
CENKOS then issued a broker note and confirmed it was worth 10k per month. Then much later we were told THX were not paying anything and "anyhow, THX add far more value to us than paying some lab fees"

Well that's all very fine if its your own cash but VAL are custodians of share holder money. Its our cash they are spending and i make that since 1 Nov 21 to now to be 18 months without anything paid, or 180k to be exact or 1,800,000 less shares in issue / dilution Share holders have put up with due to the companies scant regard for shareholder cash.

But you don't want to talk about that because it doesn't meet your agenda

Lets just see shall we.

Don't attack me, if the board deliver the SP will take care of itself.

Its desperate to see a couple of players trying to prop the price up, probably on T trades ready to sell in a week or ten days in the hope of a spike and sucking in others. You cant kid a kidder.

As for Stella, ask her or ask Suzy to qualify. At the video call meeting she was on she deffo said something to the effect that "realistically a biotech should have a 24 mth cash runway ahead of it to be viable, and that's why it was sensible to have headroom for shares issues as required"

Nothing wrong in that stance, I actually agree with her, i might add. It is the right call, the right BUSINESS decision, you can't risk running a business down to the wire.

If no cash generating event lands, such as 201 money landing, the cash needs to come via a placing. Where else will it come from? a positive result on say Barcelona alone wont pay the bills.

IF Valirx don't raise in H2 they would risk losing good staff worried the company is on the verge of running out of cash. This is realistic, its business. I don't think Suzy will run this to the wire again now Stella is appointed. Stella is smarter than that.

Lets see anyhow, not long to go....

@Nick
The SP will reflect the actions of the directors, they buy in it delivers confidence, they deliver when they say they will, that brings confidence, they get deals done that brings confidence
And the reverse if they don't

This board should be to discuss the pros and cons not act as an echo chamber for those that just want one view point. Nothing said here should make a jot of difference.

And anyhow you will be the first to offload stock the moment you get a spike in the SP. So don't kid us otherwise.

Lets see how events unfold.

And the ramp attempts. such as todays about a US listing, give me strength. IF THX have any sniff of funding Suzy will be first to issue an update i can tell you. Just the desperate and traders trying to sucker in those not researched.

THX wont get funded IMO. It didn't secure funding during the biotech boom, so why would it now during a biotech financial drought. But benefit of the doubt and all that....

@PM2022
The RNS on 5th Jan 2022 clearly stated that whilst we awaited completion of the sub license deal with THX we had won a service agreement with them from 1st November 2021. CENKOS reported the financial consideration as $10k per month. THX have not honoured any financial considerations for this either. Suzy later said in interview “THX work was worth far more than what they would pay them anyway” whilst running out of cash that we shareholders had to then fund. It’s time to call time on THX or at the very least get some fees out of them.

The fees were outside of the sub license arrangement. It was reported as a seperate contractual win. Read the RNS from the thread above.

@PatientInvestor (Iceman)
They haven't invoiced a bean in revenue is 15 years, zilch, they don't know what an invoice is other than ones they pay out on.

They have never needed credit control because they never had anything to collect and now you think they will go from zero to £2m in lab fees in six months - its not realistic, it just isn't. It will take time.

The lab is forecast is to start generating revenue from 2024, granted they could secure a small lab contract before then but the focus this year is on own pipeline first before anything external.

Seriously you are miles off and IF buy and build policy continues that will need cash on top to fund it in addition to the working capital shortage.

Anyhow, good luck to you, lets see the figures when they publish them.

@PM2022
Hey, you go on full ramping mode, convince yourself and believe what you like, think what you like about my posts, seriously it matters not.

It’s the wasted opportunity here that’s the most frustrating.

As it stands, as I see it, current Share holders are incredibly frustrated with the management of this business and their actions and Shareholders have one finger on the sell button, some are just drifting away gradually, some are just trading it and others are waiting for small uplifts to sell into.

I can tell you straight that If I added 2m of shares tomorrow the SP would rise, and every man and his uncle would sell into it and that’s because confidence in the BOD is lost.

The countless mistakes made and constant raise/spend/raise/spend/consolidate actions, warrants limiting the upside, its all come home to roost.

IMO we now need major changes to the BOD. I have reached the conclusion that based on the countless raises, the general attitude of the board, them not buying shares themselves, the almost expectation cash will come easy to support a buy and build policy, spending our money rather than calling THX to account that they don’t give a toss about the shareholders and It’s become a lifestyle business.

This needs a directional change now. I think that will ultimately come BUT will be when Adam decides to join the board and clear out the dead wood. Suzy needs to head sciences that’s her domain, not CEO.

When that event comes, the shift in attitude will be massive. We need family offices, small investment businesses and later II to get behind this. Do you realistically see this with the business as it stands? I don’t. You need new investors buying in for the long term from here, not traders.

Believe this or not, I will help secure some bigger players here but currently the upside is handicapped by the BOD itself. The market totally lacks confidence and is it any wonder the way 201 and the legacy products have been handled.

We will see how the next few weeks unfold but restoring investor confidence is key to this. Forward plans from H2 crucial

See how it goes.

Pork's

@PM2022
Firstly, I actually looked through the clips uploaded but the event I referenced I can’t find. It may have been a zoom call, but you will remember it for sure. Stella was introduced and during the discussion share raises was discussed and Stella said something along the lines of/ to the effect that realistically a biotech needs 24 mth runway to be considered viable. You will remember this event because Stella has only been on Video call once or twice.

Secondly, you are quoting utter tosh to say a deal will bring in £20m. They can’t get £1.3m in on 201 and that’s a flagship product past preclinical further advanced towards commercialisation. Further, I’m not sure the BOD has the skills to negotiate at that level. I really don’t.

Thirdly, unless they hold the results statement back due anytime now, it will show increased cash burn and losses, and this is likely to add downward pressure to the SP.

Also, the CENKOs report is clear: IF the spending is as per the forecast and they could well come in with higher overheads than the forecast, they would have £785k at the year end. The PBT cash burn is £2.118m for the year or circa £176,500 per month. This means that if they can stay under budget the cash runway is 9 months maximum. Now they can run the clock right down again in hope but, the right call would be to raise £2.5m in July or August 23 to give them a good clear 20 mth runway to take the business to being self sufficient. They would also need to ditch the buy and build idea for now.

Finally, none of the events you mention will bring hard cash into the business unless THX comes good and they pay the £1.3m after nearly two years but I don’t see it. As such the placing is guaranteed IMO its just the price its done at that’s the question.

Good Luck

Yeah right, keep taking the ramp-acetomol tablets

On that logic lets register 201 and 301 and Japan at companies house as sub coy's (sorry SPVs) take me about 20 mins to do it and well worth my time if if its going to increase the asset value four fold - don't be so ridiculous.

Do agree about the re-rate though, 7p is my call on release of the financials showing the increased cash burn and short cash runway left and 5p for the placing in July /August to increase working capital to keep going and ensure they remain viable.

I see no event that will bring cash in other than from shareholders. Its now simply a matter of what price will the placing be at.

The only event that can change that before the AGM end of June is, IF THX pay the money over, but after nearly two years i don't see that as reality. They could get a lab contract in but that will be small change compared to the running costs.

If they are still running with Buy and build policy then they will need to raise more for that in addition. After 16 raises and three consolidations what's another one anyhow?

CLX has massive potential, I don't disagree on that. But you are talking about securing a pre-clinical deal, i would say possible but more likely at least another 18mths away in the current climate from where we are today. I also question if the current BOD have the skill sets to handle that based on the diabolical handling of 201, but hey you never know.

Adam to join the BOD to turn this play around asap.

PS - Indeed THX is one mother of a big dark cloud, damaging reputation at every level from shareholders losing confidence, confidence in the BOD, other uni spin outs could be concerned - Cancer Research UK, i wonder what they make of it?, patients losing out, no control of the situation - Time to draw a line under it and look for a partner that has the capital to drive the trials forward. Currently Valirx are just wasting the opportunity and THX are on a free rise - joke.

LMOL - Its like Handbags at Dawn!

Look when there is news to be released they will update but, you have already had the quarter progress update so there is no official news due other than the AGM and board re-appointment and then come July the forward plans.

That's really the key isn't it? Is the buy and build policy on hold or are they ploughing on regardless and need a chunk of change to support it?

Meanwhile, you don't really want the overdue results statement, that will just show increased cash burn and possibly impact the share price negatively. Adam may need to get his cheque book out again to prop the SP up. Maybe Suzy could drop that statement in after market close to lessen the impact.

And at some point she will have to hold her hand up and cut the situation with THX, we all know its a dead duck I have no idea why she is extending the pain on this. Better to just cut it now and move on buy hey some of you are still hopeful that THX will be funded so WTFDIK.

Good Luck

@Andysel
She didn’t say it on the 31st July, i.m saying by the 31st July we are going know what the H2 forward plans look like and that’s when Adam will decide what he wants to do about them imo.

@Jinky58
Yes he does, he can ignore that advice but nobody but nobody wants to be in an echo chamber, alternative views make you question/ review strategy. It’s healthy.

This is the problem the BOD has, Kevin thinks Suzy is a formidable negotiator, they are too busy Patting each other on the back. Martin brings nothing to the table as a NED, Gerry resided over the business when it came within weeks of collapse due to leaving the funding until the wire, no recourse on that, mark hasn’t brought any cash paying business in during the last 15 years, what exactly is he doing all day? And he is business dev, the CENKOS deal and the mother of all fck up deal over 201, nobody accountable yet it’s still business as usual, they all think they are doing well!

This is why the BOD need to be challenged and not just build yes people around them which is the current issue.

Anyhow, let’s see how events unfold

@Adam
Yeah, Yeah - But I still love you
Remember 28 day notice resolution if you don't like July H2 forward plans, late August SH Vote approval, SH will back you 100%, we all will.
You will be on the board clearing out the dead wood, Kevin, Mark, Martin, Gerry get them gone and sorting out the direction, move Suzy to head sciences, appointing a new COO and new BDM and another NED to support you WEF 1/9/23
I will back you the world and uncle will pile in here in support.
BUT you have this ugly period to deal with first. The BOD as it stands wont come through for you Adam, they simply wont IMO. They wont because they don't know how to.
Hope i'm proved wrong but i don't see it, but we will know soon enough.

Think of the good you can do here Adam. We need you.
Take Care

Pork's

@PM2022
On July 31st you can tell me I'm wrong
For now the Jury is out.
IMO THX is completely 100% dead in the water. IF that £1.3m lands before the end of H1 i will show my piggy ar@e in Poundland's window and upload a picture of proof here.
That's how confident i am.

To Quote Stella:-

"For a biotech business to be considered as viable it needs to illustrate that it has a 2 year cash runway"

Come the July forward plans from H2 the cash runway would be at best 6-9mths PROVIDING cash burn is kept in check. As we understand it admin costs alone will be 27% higher.

I think we need to see the actuals when published but IMO running the clock right down to the wire before funding would be catastrophic frankly.

To resolve the Working capital issue either: The £1.3m from THX needs to land or a placing from shareholders to meet the current business buy and build plan OR a revision / scale back of the current plans in some format. The money has to come from somewhere.

What time does a Duck get up?
At the Quack of dawn

Two Ducks flying over Russia
One duck says Quack Quack
The other says i’m Flying as fast as I can

@Iceman
It will NOT be generating PROFITS in 6-9 months. It is forecast to start generating REVENUES in 9ths time from 2024. Now I don’t doubt they May secure a client before the end of the year but the primary objective of the lab initially is to service own drug lines before they take on third party work.

It will take a good few years before the lab is generating a profit but let’s see what clients they can win first and the contract values. Let’s see some revenue generation before we concern with if they can make it viable or not.

I have to say I thought they were going for a full on merger. Still maybe that’s something for the future :)

Meanwhile, Fantasy Island returned to our screens last night on Sky, the leading role looking after the Island is now Elena Roarke this is the daughter. I really thought @Iceman had that Job in the bag, sorry mate, keep working at it :)

“Super Hero’s”
Brilliant. 1) What are you smoking 2) Can you send me some :)

*Suzy gave a detailed update on 31/3 - I recall many here posting “Great Update Suzy” keep up the great work. Personally I thought it a lacklustre update but doesn’t matter what i think its results that count.

YES, we do need a placing early H2 on the current business plan. You can’t wait until the end of the year when you run out of cash totally, to then do a raise. I appreciate they did that the last time but it would be a mitigating disaster doing it twice. Further, Stella has been clear that for a biotech to be perceived as viable it must have a clear two year cash runway. That is a prudent and sensible policy.

Kings COULD be partnered I agree However, I would say in the current climate now is not the time. I consider that a 2025 call at best IF VAL have the negotiating skills to do a deal, not convinced on past performance they have the skills in the BOD but could be proven wrong.

301 I also think is far to early but benefit of doubt however, no partner deal during 2020-2021 when market was hot, now it’s cold less likely imo hence it will take a lot more time.

201 - you are having a laugh. Diabolical deal that won’t deliver any cash anytime soon IMO - time to either cut it altogether and seek new partner with funding in place to develop OR THX to pay a fee to maintain exclusivity pending their placement.

Warrants are NOT good news, they are bad news for us existing shareholders. The moment CENKOS can buy warrants they will dump the lot for the profit. So SH get more dilution and a flood of stock bringing the SP down. Good for VAL as it’s extra free cash so I get that.

IF Suzy gets good news she won’t need cash until 2024 - Hmm, tell me what event other than a placement will deliver hard cash into the business? There isn’t one unless THX pay the £1.3m and I don’t see that happening - sorry.

As for the AGM - all BOD will be re-elected. No reason why they won’t, at the moment. IMO come July if the forward plans are not good enough, the placing comes in at 4 or 5p that COULD be the trigger point where Adam puts a mandate resolution forward / 28 days and gets it passed, SH love him, Adam in the BOD we’d 1/9

So all eyes will be on the forward plans and nothing else imo

Good luck