Member Info for Porky9

@Adam
You are starting to hack me off with your comments about misrepresentation, you should be more professional than that. This is a stock BB to discuss the pros and cons of this investment, disagree with me fine, but don’t question my integrity by suggesting I’m out to misrepresent facts from fiction because I’m not.

I do my own DD and post on what I find. If VAL don’t update CENKOS for example they currently states an acquisition in H1 which you tell me is not likely not at this SP level anyhow, I’m still going to go off the official news and broker information until they officially confirm otherwise. Many other investors would do same.

If I was just here to reply to fantasy posts I would be replying to every other post/ piece of fiction from Iceman888 (now patient Investor) and king of the ramps PM2022 every time I read, 201 not priced in, 301 worth 10p, kings worth 20p should be 50p and other such nonsense posts - I’m not doing that.

It looks to me that outright outrageous ramping is ok here but anything worth actually discussing is not. Joke. Meanwhile the business continues to do what they do because you would rather blame shareholders daring to question anything than be held to account for p poor management decisions

Good luck to you all

@Adam
OK, I’m fully accepting this is an ever changing situation as they evolve, this is where I got the information in the CENKOS report.

Page 8
Personnel
“We expect that, as a minimum, ValiRx will require two scientists to run the laboratory: a lab manager and a lab technician. ValiRx intends to hire a lab manager with experience running a certified laboratory (ISO 9001), such that ValiRx’ laboratory is set up and run in a manner consistent with these regulations. The lab technician will report into the lab manager.”

Page 11
Administration Expenses
“We have increased our forecast administrative expenses by 23% to £1.52m. This reflects
increased costs associated with running the laboratory to the end of FY23E, which we have
estimated to be £200k, alongside the additional depreciation charge on equipment acquired by ValiRx for the laboratory”
“We estimate capital expenditure on the laboratory equipment of £0.35m and expect this to
depreciate in line with company policy of 33% straight line.”

The report also says on page 8:-
“ValiRx expects to have completed at least one acquisition by the end of H1/23”
“ValiRx’ acquisition targets generally fall into two categories, laboratory-based or technology based. In most cases, the laboratory-based acquisition targets specialise in a particular area of preclinical research which will be complementary to ValiRx’ activities”

As I say, I fully appreciate that events can and do change as the plans evolve, I had taken it that the £200k increased admin cost was down to the two lab staff but either way, the current plan will take time and cash to reach its objectives and represents a totally different investment risk profile to what it was three years ago. That’s how I see it.

Anyhow, Lets see what they do next….

It probably would be worth VAL just sticking with one broker but constantly updating them of progress rather than two brokers and risk constant miss-information - just a thought. I appreciate many here on LSE forums are not interested in the broker reports but many do read them and VAL needs all the support they can get.

Pork's

not picked up on anything @Adam

Look, either CENKOS are not reporting information correctly in the IM or VAL are giving them information which later changes. Eitherway, SOME Investors are making informed choices based on the information presented by them.

Time they ditch CENKOS by the sounds of it. They don't need to pay for two brokers, just adds to cost.

@Adam
With respect you are practically calling me a liar, I don't like that. Its totally uncalled for. It is crystal clear in the Cenkos report that the budget for the manager and assistant is £200k now if that's wrong CENKOS need sorting

Adam
Lab Manager and assistant Lab manager £200k, additional personal £100k
Says in the CENKOS report
Ask Suzy to clarify to you but the lab manager and the assistant manager are clearly defined at £200k for the two.

@ABftse
Oh give me strength....
Come off it, they have confirmed no revenue this year, revenue hopeful in 2024, lets see £300k of contracts first that cover the three staff wages first before pipedreams of £20m quid, have you tried to WIN any business, you have to compete for it, you need sales and marketing for a start, there is ZERO budget allocation yet for Sales and Marketing.
The ramping nonsense here is ridiculous....

@Adam
Which is it?
Posting outside of trading hours guarantees that I can’t be accused of posting to influence the days trading - is that clarity enough?

OK I’m going to reply and wade in now market closed for the weekend.

A few pump trader buys late Friday afternoon expecting a quick profit flip on Monday because of a tweet by Suzy to register for RNS service wont change a thing. Likewise existing SH down averaging again to try and hold the SP up.

It’s 100% down to VAL to deliver regular updates – this is what they need to deliver.

Also, a bit disappointed in Adam in your previous reply despite the fan club loving it, I expected better than for you to imply that the SP is down because of negative posters, SAR is better because it doesn't have "planks" commenting. That’s the sort of nonsense that Suzy would say. The SP is totally driven by the actions of the Board apart from a bit of trader activity and nothing else.

SAR does well because they constantly update on drug progress and have a sold investor base. The board are not distracted with vanity projects. They are not wasting money on PR firms, two brokers, staff members that don’t deliver, they don’t give shares away to brokers, they don’t sit and watch the cash run out then call a last moment placing to save it, they don’t partner with firms with no cash, they don’t lose vital SH support by not delivering on what they say or at the very least updating, I could go on.

The BOD are totally culpable regarding the actions taken and the poor decisions made to date and this is reflected in the share price. As an investment over the last five plus years Investors have taken an absolute bath. Countless raise and spend issues and two consolidations. No revenue has been delivered in over 10 years. To suggest any other factor is at play here is utter nonsense. Investors have been well and truly shafted.

We then talk about SPVs, well great, so VAL registered another wholly owned subsidiary at companies house and put the lab in it. Board decision to use investor cash in this SPV.

I speak for many investors here when I say that what investors cared about was investing into potentially life changing drugs, they didn’t come here to invest in a lab start up business that was never the original plan. The legacy drugs are what they care about.

I hope Monday SH get the update due they deserve, its well overdue however meanwhile:-

201 – Totally unforgivable to give this quality drug peptide to a potless start up stateside. The poor management of it, no time lines and to let it drift for 2 years without a bean paid is an utter disgrace and bad management, No sugar coating. Time to cut them. Product left on the shelf for two years how does that help anyone?

Cont….

@HD
Yep, Good luck, lets see how events unfold. I'm not going to counter comment
Take Care
Pork's

"It’s a tough time to be an investor – and an even tougher one for firms seeking investment. From close to zero, central bank interest rates have risen to 3% in the Eurozone, 4% in the UK and nearly 5% in the USA. Further rate hikes could be on the way this year. For investors, dependable assets like government bonds have become a lot more tempting compared to volatile start-up shares. Venture capitalists are becoming increasingly discriminating. That means pharmaceutical entrepreneurs – inundated with investment opportunities mere months ago – are now competing for a shrinking pool of cash"
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/sponsored/the-new-frontiers-of-pharmaceutical-innovation-according-to-investors/

"Firms seeking to raise capital, expand their scope and maintain profitability need to scrutinise their operational efficiency."

In my considered opinion, take with pinch of salt if you wish, the decision to gift our prize legacy asset to a potless US Start up was the wrong call. It was further badly handled, zero control of the situation and lack of commercial acumen has resulted in a situation with THX on the never never unlimited time line WITHOUT any financial contribution at any level to VAL - Shareholders are still paying for this arrangement.

Sorry but 201 sitting on a shelf for over 2yrs whilst we wait on IF a start up can get funded is NOT helping anyone is it?

Lets see what happens next, as i see it VAL have stated the initial business plan, the tCRO plans remain as stated. They will need more working capital to support that and this is a question of at what SP the raise will come at.

That is not a bad thing BTW, its business plain and simple and what the AIM Market is for, to raise capital, but i see no short term event that will result in cash landing to support working capital other than via a placing. Its that simple.

I could well be wrong, THX may be on the phone next week confirming when the £1.3m will be transferred, you never know.

Look back in during July. Please don't draw me in here, it just causes upset for Retail that need that comfort blanket. Any investor here simply just needs to take a long term view. DYOR

Good Luck

Sorry, The investor base of Sareum is NOTHING like the Investor base here. Ridiculous comparison.

For II to get in here Boots and all a) they need a bloody good business plan to illustrate exponential growth and b) they will want to get in on a placing at heavily discounted prices to start with.

@NH
That's really funny, you have a wicked sense of humour

For those old enough to remember, I was thinking he could be apply as a replacement for Tattoo who worked for Mr Roarke :-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-6ljYpJ2yg

They need the CE mark
There needs to be further change to regulation in the U.K. but moving in right direction
They need to get the capital raise sorted

I did wonder how they could get GPs to actually prescribe Kanabo products. The creation of the new service specifically for cannabis products makes sense but still wonder how they get over conflict of interest issues if a GP agrees to go online to support the cannabis service and the potential patient is not suited to the product and the doctor should prescribe something else?

Currently the GP service I think is brilliant having used it myself but it’s £45 for an online appointment plus the prescribed item cost as its a private prescription. Clearly, based on revenues we know it struggles to gain traction due to the fact that too many won’t pay as they can get free from local doctors. I would pay but I think I’m a minority.

If they can somehow subsidise the call service so that those wanting the cannabis inhaler can have a GP consultation for free and the doctor just signs it off, the patient pays for the first inhaler then their local GP offers follow on under repeat and the NHS pays, I could see that being a real winner.

Much to sort out and lots of hurdles to jump

@Kidlington
Just wanted to thank you for taking the time out to provide your detailed reply - appreciated

I can certainly see why JM would want to have projects spread out thru the year, that would make a lot of sense. It must play havoc with the cash flow. Also, getting more onto annual recurring contracts like that Merck Master Agreement does on the surface look like the way to go to take pressure off having to constantly win new awards.

With any tech play there is always pressure to keep innovating to stay ahead of the competition but i really like the tech offering here, its clearly brilliant and making a difference. A client like Bicycle wouldn't go back to them to support a new drug candidate if they didn't have confidence in the offering.

What i need to weight up now is the longevity of the client life cycle and the client acquisition cost to get enough clients on to not just get to break even but create exponential growth to really see this being a high value asset. Its a tough one when you don't have clarity on the churn rates and they deliver a lacklustre H1. As ever with a lot of these AIM plays us mere PI never get to see the full picture but clearly they are doing a lot of things right. Much to think about.
As i say, thanks for input.. Take care

Pork's

I don't know about Manic Friday More like you should be singing, you lied to me (return of the Mack), sing along now to my alternative version:-

Oh, oo-o-oh, come on, ooh, yeah
Well Suzy tried to tell you so (yes, she did)
But I guess she didn't know, as I said the story goes
TheoremRx, Just cannot get the Dough

Suzy guessed it from the start
That TheoremRx would go and brake her heart
201 just wont get through, now share holders need to foot the bill

All those times Suzy said TheoremRx will come through
(She lied to you ) yes, she tried, yes, she tried
(She lied to you) even though she thought it would come true
(She lied to you) yes, Shareholders cried, yes they cried …

(Return for a Placement) they will
(Return for a Placement) it’s on
(Return for a Placement) oh my God
(You know that she will be back) here I am
(Return for a Placement) yet again
(Return for a Placement) Rampers pump it up amen
(Return for a Placement) watch my flow
(You know that I'll be back) when the share price gets more low…

Enjoy, Have a great weekend
Pork’s

I see the house broker CENKOS is taking a spanking today, SP down 20% so far. Almost half the revenue in the last FY.

Maybe they will start working that bit harder now for clients to find II support when they need it!!!!

@PM2022
It just doesn’t work like that. Fair value to you would be seeing a higher market value for this business but in its current position the market doesn’t value it that way.

I would say she is managing shareholder expectations well just trapped in a stupid situation with THX of her own making. She needs to kill this albatross once and for all, it’s holding the business back and damaging reputation. My thought was ask them for £250k, Nick has been far more flexible here and suggested £100k, it’s a negotiation but either way THX need to pay something - ie “Look THX, we have given you two years to secure funding without outcome, the deal is damaging our shareholder support base, we need to now remove the exclusivity so we can seek out an alternative buyer or if you want to remain exclusive pay us £120k down and we will extend by 12 months. The Moment your funding lands we can deduct it” - this sort of outcome whilst not great would at least prove Suzy can make tough decisions. If they say no, SH would respect her decision to move on. Better that then this never Never arrangement.

As for your comment about support well you can call me what you like but if I was Suzy I would pass standard resolution for AGM with results to get re-elected end of June, then hit SH with the raise by special GM in July explaining why.

As for backing a placing, Investors are fickle frankly, they will invest in anything if they think they can get a return. IMO - if the forward plans are good and the deal right it will get support IMO that’s business

If Adam doesn’t like the direction of the business from July he can always step up to join the BOD to make the changes.

Q for those that have done more DD on buying this stock:

Are all the contract awards one off fees per drug candidate of the Biotech concerned OR are are they annually recurring per client?

IF they are not renewable in any way does this mean PYC have to constantly keep finding new clients with new drug candidates they are working on?

I ask this because I was trying to work out why revenue was down yet it was clear they must have won new contracts. I couldn’t understand the churn rates. So in the case of this new bicycle contract this is a second contract award on a drug line but not only don’t we know value we don’t know the duration of the contract either.

Anyone know the revenue model here?

@PM2022
Hey look, agree Suzy has this window and will then showcase for the H2 so let’s see how events unfold - hope it goes well for you.

I can’t however share the same opinion regarding the market cap being low, the market has valued this at this level, the SP was down as low as 3.5p in April 20 and the business has not delivered a bean in revenue in 15 years hence totally SH funded.

Equally, they are yet to prove the business model. None of the legacy pipeline products have secured deals. Also, when they do a poor deal like the THX one, it damages reputation, what message does that send out to prospective university scientists? VAL really need to sort 201 one way or another.as I see it.

Finally, Suzy was very clear last night: acquisition in H1 to add to the USP of the tCRO it sounded like they already had a target in mind. We are in March now so they must be talking to someone to make that pledge?

Anyhow, as you say, they have a window let’s see how it goes.

Pork’s

@Lockdowns
You are at cross purposes - other stocks don't matter, this BB is to consider this investment - if you just want to read pro-ramp posts when you are long how is that fair. Then you are bear the moment you sell anyhow.