Member Info for Porky9

@PM2022
Its totally wrong to suggest that there is “no real downside” risk on a penny share, totally wrong. Shares can go up or down. You can lose all your money at 10p in just the same way you can lose all your money at £1.

You are grasping at muti million valuations for this drug or that drug without any substance to it whatsoever. Final commercialisation of a drug is only worth what someone will pay for it. Likewise money paid for licencing of a drug based on what’s negotiated.

Suzy has been VERY clear that the drugs cycle from Discovery to Commercialisation can take up to 15 years to happen. It requires both significant investment and time, whilst unfortunately the failure rate is incredibly high. This article from North East Biolab which is a CRO similar to VAL explains the cycle perfectly:- https://www.nebiolab.com/drug-discovery-and-development-process/

At Valirx they currently have 5 products in the pipeline at early stages:- https://www.valirx.com/our-pipeline nothing wrong with that but its misleading to suggest that the market cap here is going to treble in the space of 4 months.

VAL have not delivered any revenue in the last ten years. They are not forecast to deliver any revenue this year to end of 23 either. They are totally reliant on Shareholder funds to keep going. See the house broker report if you are still unclear:- https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal/

That is the nature of fledgling biotech’s. Yes of course, the big payday comes when a drug finally gets commercialised, or they get big licensing payments and royalty money in its final stages to that commercialisation but that takes time to happen. Talk of multi million pound deals is wonderful but I put to you where exactly is cash going to land from before the end of June in the meantime?

When the SP went on a Rally here in Nov 21 the market was expecting a license deal paying multi millions of cash upfront plus royalties for 201 with a major Biotech like AZN. Investors thought that VAL might just pull that deal off. Instead that didn’t happen, they gave 201 to a US start up trying to raise money. Worse the LOI signed in Nov 21 confirms on execution of that deal VAL only gets a token £1.3m in the first year but even this deal is still to be executed.

VAL are now looking to build a lab network, the tCRO, this on paper looks like a great idea. IF they can generate enough revenue from lab work this would enable not only own projects to be supported inhouse but also generate enough money to fund the operation and break the raise, spend cycle. This concept however will require more funding to reach its objectives.

The bottom line is that IMO they doing some great things, equally the BOD have also made some real commercial errors however, to post here and say this is some get rich quick plan is plain wrong. Investors need to do own DD and make own calls. You suggest 30p by end of June, I suggest 5p by end of June with a placement scheduled. Let’s see.

Thanks @Fredd1eboy
LMOL, very good, i will remain positive hereon
Have a good weekend, take care
Pork's

@Iceman
It makes no difference what's said on these Boards, its the actions of the business that will change events.
BUT if you think it makes a difference:-

I hope you great fortune with your investment
I hope THX come through with the deal this first half
I hope VAL never return to to shareholders for a further raise
AND the SP gets to OPs £2.61 level in record time.

Have a great weekend

@Ironmighty
True, maybe i learnt something this last six months...
That with AIM penny shares a) its too easy to spend and raise, especially when its someone else's cash b) what BOD don't say is often more telling than what they do say.

These boards should be used by us to collectively explore the ins and outs of investments. Not as a spring board just to pump and dump. Together we have more power.

@Iceman888
Oh please... your as good as any other here at pumping, you are one of the best.
You are a fully fledged member of the ramping club here, you are PM2022s most trusted pump lieutenant, you should change your username to lieutenant Iceman... PM2022 maintains the top position of Captain Pump he will take some beating.
Have a great weekend

@Paperprofits
Look, VAL will update when they have something meaningful to say that's required under RNS release rules. Wild speculation doesn't help anyone, neither does pumping unless you are that desperate for a quick SP bounce?

Meanwhile, if they truly are trying to build long term value they need to crack on during H1 make the changes required and outline the forward plans. Walk the walk.

Also, don't worry about Adam, he has loads of options open to him at the end of H1 if he is not happy with the BODs plans. Loads of options. Lets see what they deliver.

if that message is to me, YES i do know a pump when i see it, you can't kid a kidder.

@DarthInvestor
Look it's just a poor attempt at a late Friday pump to hopefully sucker some punt money in

@PM2022
SO by your logic if i register a company at companies house and call it a special purpose vehicle its worth £20m quid?

They are not going to get £20m quid in, by god they are struggling to get the £1.3m in from THX for VAL201 and that's the crown jewels of the operation. They need to get some clarity on that for a starting point.

@HeresHopin
I doubt they use the serviced offices at Eliot Park that much, more likely all work from home now in line with most businesses.

@Bravosix
100% agree, positioning ready pre-placement. Two previous were a penny down on each other, so expecting similar, so maybe 3p placing or 2.5p placing depending on what support they can secure via the brokers. Does make perfect sense. Much slower burn to change UK habits than how HELD are positioning. We still need full visibility of financials though.

I do actually like the direction of the business plan here, i prefer it to HELDs business model despite HELD having buckets of cash. I think once this one has the financial stability and cash behind it KNB could prove to be the stronger play maybe?. Long way off just yet but could well get sexy in 2024 if they can get a) product validation which is key b) nationwide supply and distribution right and c) GP Network to be fully integrated with the medical product.

Two other thoughts:-
Can they incentivise UK GPs to prescribe their product? Is that unethical? and on prescribing it the supply to the local chemist needs to be in place. So I'm wondering how much stock they would need in production for UK Coverage? and they need the cash to fund that.

Having actually used the GP service its £40 to use the service plus the private prescription cost. Personally I would pay it but a lot wont but its still an additional reach to just the normal free doctors service.

If they have built up a 40,000 patient network so far that will include people that have used the service from anything from a Verruca on their big toe to contraception to flu and virus support to more serious issues - i wonder what percentage of that would need an inhaler for pain management?

Bottom line for me: If they can get enough cash behind them at the next placing it feels like that could be a good entry point providing its enough cash to do all of the above. I'm trying to avoid penny shares stuck in the middle of the raise spend cycle due to the continual dilution we face.

@OB
Didn’t know your balls were crystal, Steel yes, but Crystal, impressive...
Take care

@PM2022
Agreed, makes zero difference what i say, Investors will make their own calls.
BUT, this LSE board is a stock BB to explore the investment proposition here, not a ramping cult. We can all have different opinions. Makes the world go around.

The only thing that can shift this SP up or down as i see it is what the board do. They do the right things and the market likes it, more will back them, funds will move in. Do the wrong thing and investors move on, its that simple.

Hopefully we will know more in due course. Take care

Pork's

@hoosierdaddy
There is a key difference between a total speculative "punt" of a few quid and a meaning full investment that would make a difference. Look at the trades, its all "punt" money and short term traders, excepting those still averaging down.

BIG money is NOT investing here and that's simply because of the uncertainty. IF they can turn around events and prove proof of concept ,maybe a fund or at least other HNW or family office funds would buy in here, that's what is needed.

@sootysnipes
I agree we have to see what they do in H1.
If it turns out that at the AGM they offer a placing but back that with a meaningful forward plan, as i have said i will back it and re-join the ramping team here.

But as it stands I don't think we will see a bean of cash from anywhere in H1 especially from THX and i think there needs to be an honest dialog. IF THX are not going to pay any lab fees or pay us the £1.3m agreed then VAL need to draw a line under it, move on and look for a Biotech backer that has the financial reserves to support it. VAL is not a charity.

Also, Lets not forget that not only are VAL letting Cancer Research UK down, PYC are not getting their 6% cut for supply of the computational tech, money they could invest in cancer research elsewhere, it is taking even longer to potentially get the drugs to market that could prove life changing and all because VAL made what's looking like a poor call doing a deal with a start up - EVERYONE deserves better than that frankly.

Meanwhile, we wait as wait does,,,,,

@A2B4C4
Alternatively you could argue that if the LORD was looking after me, 4D could have relisted and i could have chucked that extra written off cash over here :)
That's penny shares for you. See how it goes...

@RB
Its all relative...
4D placing was at £1.10,more cash raised £24m and £30m credit facility later pulled, higher spend, bigger product pipeline with many at different stages towards commercialisation.
VAL is just on a smaller scale, raising less, less product pipeline BUT still burning cash every day. Investors want results now, that's the issue.

As i have said, lets see how h1 goes and the forward plans at the June AGM. Good luck to you but Biotech's are not get rich quick investments - its going to take time.

@Iceman888
LMOL - Looks like we were both wrong with our late H1 spud call but both knew weather conditions would push it back anyhow, so kind of no surprise there.
Third Quarter Spud...... see how it goes.

Also, market attitudes changing for sure this year, PI really getting p@ssed off now where AIM coy's keep pushing the raise spend envelope without delivering anything in return.

@Dia2belts
I feel a song coming on re your earlier sexist post, LOL:---
"This is a man's world, this is a man's world...
But it wouldn't be nothing, nothing, nothing, without a woman or a girl....."

I think Lorna will be just fine, will giver her benefit of the doubt and all that....
GL

@Obone
I was saying this on the VAL thread last week.
You can do so much DD but only based on what's in the public domain. If the CEO hides stuff from you or they keep you in the dark on key aspects its like investing with one hand tied behind your back.

Sometimes, its what they don't say that's more important than what they do. Penny shares remain high risk because of that.

Regarding 4D i do wonder what changed things last week. I wonder if Armistice thought they could pump 15m in and flip it quick to Biotech partners and cash out only to find the commercialisation of these drugs was still a few years off.

Bottom line is someone will pick these assets up from the liquidators on the cheap for sure whilst SH take a bath.

That's the way the cookie crumbles as they say...

@Badsterman
Not good for the Biotech sector per sae. Run out of cash and its like a heart attack frankly. This is why Stella will want to shore up a placing here come July so they have that 12 month working capital runway from H2 ahead of them.

I say that not just to p@ss shareholders off here, no point in that, but it makes sound business sense and faced with backing a raise or risk running out of funds to meet the business objectives, there is no contest and shareholders will ultimately support.

The thing is the cash they currently have now gets eaten up by the new tCRO concept, setting up the lab etc so cash burn has increased massively. Which is all part of the business plan and fine but its going to take time to deliver results on. I think shareholders need to be mindful of that.

Of course if THX can stump up the £1.3m during H1 to end of June that would materially improve finances.

@PM2022
Yes, yet again SH not in full receipt of all the facts. IF a BOD keeps information back from SH what chance has the average private investor got?
That's why people follow funds but even then there are risks. BUT be honest with yourself, do you think you have full clarity regarding the 201 negotiations? i don't.

Anyhow, frankly @PM2022 you are king of the pumping crew here, nothing wrong in that if that's your play but people in glass houses and all that....

Lets just call a truce for now, see how events unfold. It is the BOD and only the BOD that can change things here, lets see if they do...