Member Info for Porky9

@Sootysnipes
IF directors BUY now it can only be token IMO they would be mad to buy now knowing a placement will need to follow. The Directors can buy later.

@All
They will need a raise in July for sure IMO because of the increased cash burn. I repeat again, the new concept specifically the tCRO will take time and more money to establish and Stella will want to see at least a 12 mth runway from start of H2 IMO. That is sound business logic.
As such, the time for them to BUY would be to support the next placing because then if its at say 4-5p they can say look, appreciate its low BUT Directors are supporting it.

This is not what shareholders want to hear for sure BUT its business logic and it takes time.

Think about it, solid Barcelona results whilst could give a small SP spike to sell into would be welcome it wont get cash in, the tCRO wont generate cash until into 2024, they have nothing that can deliver immediate cash income whilst burn continues, that's Biotechs for you, takes time. Unless THX conjure up the 1.3m for 201 otherwise again no cash in.

This is not a get rich quick investment, wake up, it will take time and more investment

Isn't it funny when the ASK side is thin the stats get quoted, when the bid side is thin all is on the down low and nobody posts a thing. You don't see Iceman shouting the stats today do you?

Well here is the current reality on L2:-

1 X Just Holding in on the 10 BID
1 X 9.7
2 x 9.5
2 x 9
2 x 8.5

Meanwhile 4 Brokers desperately trying to sell stock at 10.5

Going to take a long time for stock overhang to clear imo. Absolutely no hurry to buy yet IMO, the ramping club can ramp to their hearts content, smart money is not moving in at these prices, the short term upside is VERY limited to the downside risk.

IF you were looking at this as a fresh investment as of today, with current dilution and knowing that the tCRO will need more cash to establish would you buy at 10p or wait for the placing? Answers on a postcard.

Honestly, the ramping team do post some cobblers. They will hate this post but its adds balance to the debate:-

1. It is NOT oversold the RSI is sitting at 40. When this stock gets oversold it falls as low as 10 so its a long way from being oversold.

2. There are heaps of shareholders, you have the broker fees in stock, you have warrant holders all wanting out ideally on SP uplifts ideally at a bid 10p+ but the moment that bid uplifts its sold into. Just watch.

3. Nick has been removed from the website as his holding is now a just under the 3% TR1 declaration level, so he can now drip feed the rest without notification. He can always buy back at the next placing.

4. SH think they won by blocking res 4 to allow provision for a 30% share issue. But better diluted that prevent the business from trading. I genuinely believe this will take more time and cash especially with the new tCRO concept. As such i expect a placing in July at 4-5p level to support it BUT the BOD will need to detail the case in order to get it over the line.

Lets see what H 1 delivers. Good luck.

@Iceman888
Look good luck to you but your post is purely conjecture and just like PM2022 full of positive rampy spin based on what you want the SP to do NOT what could be the position in the current market conditions.

The fact you are down averaging and materially underwater here is not the problem of the board. I put it to you that had you brought shares at 3.5p in April 2020 you would be on close to a 300% return now. Timing is everything as they say. I stress the fact you brought in on spikes is not the boards problem.

AND as for resolution 4, you don't know what the voting numbers were like, the BOD simply withdrew resolution 4 as it was unpopular BUT i say again, this business will take time and further capital to get to the destination. Shareholders may still need to accept a further placing to allow the headroom for them to deliver.

Lets see how H1 goes and the board further outlines plans
Pork's

Not going to be drawn in
Lets just say, come July i might get serious then depending on their exact trading position and how they have performed in H1 at that point. I am of the firm opinion they will need further financial help going into H2 but they have to start thinking differently for sure- there is an end to how much shareholders will tolerate IMO but lets see how it rolls.
Good Luck

LOL
How little you know.....
Take care
Pork's

@Iceman888
Assumption is the mother of all **** ups

Stop trying to second guess me and make wild assumptions. Seriously you don't have a clue, i could take a TR1 position tomorrow if i wanted to but this is NOT the time.

You carry on playing chasing the Ace for now - good luck to you

Pork's

@PM2022
I fail to understand why you THINK the ONLY stocks i am involved in are on the boards where i have made comment? Does it not occur to you that my reasons for posting on those boards are because they are the ones in trouble and need attention?

You continue to reference the disaster that is 4D Pharma but can i point out that YES the cash burn was materially higher at 4D than VAL and its share price placing crashed from £1.10 to 16p where it was suspended but it had 4 times the portfolio of VAL and had one drug with the FDA that was close to commercialisation and two others in final phase stages. What it does prove is that if they run out of cash its like a heart attack. VAL is not immune to the same risks.

I would argue that the Suzy doing the recent placements at 10p was a shrewd move albeit painful to Shareholders because once the results are out in April they will demonstrate increased cash burn for sure and the discount would be even higher. This way they got some cash now and the next placing will be for less money.

Its better to do a discounted placing than end up like 4D and investors potentially lose the lot.

Lets see how events unfold here. My money is on a 5p or even 3.5p raise here in June. I don't see any catalysts that can bring in a chunk of revenue before then and they need more time and cash to prove concept.

There isn't anymore the guy can do or say. He did a brilliant Q&A. The BOD know his thoughts. They are now fully exposed and need to prove their worth.

I have MAXIMUM respect for Adam, absolutely terrific guy and has firmly put his money where his mouth is. Its down to the BOD to set out their stall now and deliver. Its not for Adam to keep reassuring Shareholders and hand holding them all the time. Its up to the BOD to build that shareholder confidence.

By end of June (H1) we should have the clarity here we need and when they come with that placing call in June they will need to demonstrate a dam good plan to secure Shareholder backing.

Meanwhile, the share price support lines are 7.5p then 5p then back to 3.5p where we started in April 2020 so the clock is ticking IMO.

GL

The stock has outperformed if you brought stock at 3.5p in April 2020, not done quite so well if you were in either of the two 125 to 1 share price consolidation before that or your brought in on some of the bull runs in recent times.

The opinion of the FT doesn't matter that much and the opinion of some charting blog certainly doesn't BUT what really matters is the actions of the BOD going forwards.

GL

@Uncanny
I have been in contact with Suzy in the past, she knows who i am.

BUT, your missing the whole point of a stock BB here, the idea is that we explore the pros and cons of the investment and ways to take it forward, the risks etc that's the whole point.

At the GM the SH got their way and Res 4 was pulled. What we didn't hear from VAL BOD was why they actually wanted that headroom, there has to be a reason and my best guess, could be wrong, was that they wanted to explore an acquisition policy and be in a position to make a move fast on the right deal knowing they already had SH support for the deal that was the implication as far as i could see.

We now need to know what is next BUT my call remains that they will want a further placing in June because i believe that Stella will insist on at least 12 mths cash runway from June and with the increased cash burn they will need to do that, especially if THX don't transfer any funds to them by the end of H1.

Anyhow, bottom line: im not here to upset the ramping club just to bring balance to the debate. We have discussed and explored this to death now. Its down to Suzy and the BOD to show us what they can do, so i think we agree to disagree and all explore review again end of June, end of H1.

By them we will all have the clarity required, they will either deliver or they wont or at least detail forward plans and have some kind of conclusion on the 201 situation good or bad.

Wishing you all well with your respective portfolios, Take care all.

Pork's

@ABfse
No - Initially they were going to BUY a lab as a going concern with its own book of clients.
They then did a U-Turn on that plan and decided to RENT a lab space in Nottingham BUT spend money on the Fitting Out /contents/ set up (£450k) and find a lab manager and lab assistant (provision £200k) to man it.
There is NO provision for Sales and Marketing to prospect for new lab client accounts in this Financial year.
Further, the lab is for OWN projects whilst they establish this year and no revenue in this year is forecast - FACT
Sorry but it clearly states this in black and white in the CENKOS report see here:-
https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal/
Also in the Q&A Suzy confirmed the Lab will be for own projects this year. They want an acquisition plan to add to the lab to create something unique in the market, they couldnt be any clearer,

Many here are choosing to ignore because it doesn't fit with your pro ramping stance. This is going to take time and further capital to get to where they need to be. Not a get rich quick.

@Iceman888
No - you are being a fool, you are not seeing what's in front of you and chasing the ace. The investment has lost 69% of its value, wake up man.

Its not a Victory that the 30% share issue headroom was blocked, that's not something to be celebrated, its only a victory if the BOD make the changes to prove the concept. They have a window IMO through to end of H1 June 23 to prove the concept and when they find an acquisition target should revert to secure support to get it over the line.

IMO Stella will need to push for a June Placing to secure 12 mths runway from there unless the £1.3m lands from THX in the first half. Time will tell

GL to you i will leave you to ramp away to your hearts content.

Pork's

@Metom
100% agree, I have followed this investment closely:-
In my considered opinion Suzy is a superb Scientist and incredibly passionate about science and what they are working on. Lets face it who here gets excited by reagents?
BUT she lacks commercial acumen and is led by Kevin. This situation is potentially toxic from a SH perspective and they continue doing the same things and expecting a different outcome. They have a history of raise and spend and ZERO experience of creating revenue. That's how i see it and it needs to change.

Looking specifically at 201, i don't doubt from a working day perspective Suzy enjoys working with THX BUT from a commercial perspective they are a bloody nightmare, they haven't delivered on any financial promise not even a contribution to the service costs that was originally indicated. VAL need to call time on this arrangement. VAL are not a charity and our SH should not be indirectly funding them.

My call on THX is that they are waiting to line up a deal stateside with a Bio partner which could take a few more years and will only complete with VAL acting effectively as a bridge with a slice off the top when that time comes. That's what i think. That is good business, not for us but it is for them and what i would do in their position.

Think about it, THX do NOT need to send £1.3m cash to VAL because they have what they want, its exclusive and no time limit on it. That business. Its our BOD that are to soft to see it.

@PM2022
I only comment on stocks that need attention. I have a diverse portfolio. Think what you like. On AIM its high risk, you take your chances.

@Iceman
Personally i would like to see Adam now installed as CEO, move Suzy to head Sciences this is where she needs to be. I would need to understand more what Kevin and Martin do on the board but see no value in Martin what so ever and Jury out on Kevin. If he stays i would certainly want two more NEDs to bring a balanced view.

Frankly, I am expecting a placing in June, i would possibly back it with a TR1 position IF Adam was installed. Lets see how events unfold.

@ABfste
I totally get we all want to see a SP improvement but your post is clearly misleading, for the detailed picture i would advise any investor to read the CENKOS report issued its free to register and download:-
https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal/

*The lab signed immediately increases cash burn and requires £450k for equipment and costs to set up and two appointments a lab manager and assistant at a further £200k on top.
* The lab is only to doing own project work and not expected to deliver ANY revenue in the year to end of 2023 - read the report.
* There will be some saving against outsourced own project work but it pales into insignificance compared to the lab running costs.
*IMO the lab is a good thing for the business but will take time and more investment to establish.
* Talk of £20m revenue in 5 years is total pie in the sky. The only way that is possible would be via loads of acquisitions hence more dilution or building own sales and marketing team in 2024 which again will take more capital investment. Acquisitions are the plan.
* 201 update needs to land by end of H1 June and ideally they need to pay the £1.3m otherwise i'm confident Stella will want a placing then as she will want at least 12 months cash runway from June. Its the logical move unless they can get revenue in. Hence why they asked for 30% headroom at the GM that SH declined.
* Japan and Barcelona results and update would be great BUT neither will result in a cash injection this financial year IMO and cash burn continues that is the nature of drug R&D.
* Pre clinical for CLX is a positive but again wont bring in immediate cash flow, its a few years off.
* Far too many now with finger on the sell button in the short term looking for any uplift from 10p Bid. The BOD now need to show proof of delivery.

Sorry, but with all the shares in issue and warrants we have more chance of expecting a further placing in June at 6p. That is the reality imo. I don't see any catalyst to change this unless Suzy can get THX to pay the £1.3m before end of H1. Clock is ticking IMO. This is what SH need to see, either that or a line drawn under THX and new partner found with capital to meet the forward financial obligations.

See how it unfolds but the risk profile has changed following the change in business plan direction. Will full review again end of June.

I'm sure the ramping club will jump on this post but its how it is. BOD need to take responsibility and make the required changes. They have a window to do it.
GL

@Fredd1eboy
What are you talking about. They have a 14mth cash runway and massively increased overheads with the lab coming online. No revenues from the lab until into 2024, its for own projects this year.

The TRX money is £1.3m plus lab support costs not paid. IF that THX money doesn't land by end of H1 Stella will need a raise in June to secure a further 12 mth window. That is why they asked for the 30% headroom.

IMO Stella may well buy but more likely in June to support a further discounted issue. That is what i would do in her position, unless they can get 201 over the line beforehand.

There are currently a lot of SH with figures hovering over the sell button just waiting for that small uplift to get out as i see it.

The window now is open for the VAL board to prove the concept - lets see what they do, clock is ticking.

@elles
Don't always agree with you but your point is completely valid:-

"The newly issued warrants will limit upside. The shareholders approved the issue of new equity hence the share count increases thus restricts SP movement further. 11p, 14p & 22p will take some doing"

This is now the issue. The risk profile has shifted significantly. If you punt money on the AIM in penny shares you want stocks with multi bag return potential. Should the £1.3m not come in from THX they will need to return to the market in June as they will need a 12 mth forward cash runway. Hence probably why if the board are honest with themselves is why they wanted the 30% headroom.

IMO they wont secure an II to back this without proof of concept. BUT what the current situation does do is completely focus the BOD that the SH base are not mugs, they want to see some control and focus on revenue production to avoid being asked for more cash.

They have a window now to change things, I stand by end of June, end of H1 to deliver the detail on direction, conclude 201 one way or another and give SH confidence to back the next placement IF the plans and direction are clear should revenue cash not come in by then

GLA

OK so on a positive Resolution 4 was binned
- New shares can list on 6th Feb - 3% dilution
- 3m Warrants to come so only 2.5% future dilution
- 700k of Advisor warrants at 11p not sure if they are on top of the 300k shares for fees or not but they will need to clear in the market for sure.
- On listing 102m shares in issue.
Best outcome in the circumstances and at least we have clarity and no immediate threat of a further 30% dilution over our heads.

So SH Victory today, however not out of the woods just yet, BOD need to get their focus heads on now and deliver on forward plans. Hopefully starting with some kind of outcome on 201 with THX before end of June.

I think the BOD have a 6 mth window to now prove they can make this work.

GLA

@Suthy
Ok good luck to you but you see if you get inspired by the recent Q&A and the CENKOS broker update. let’s see what she has to say at the GM.
Take care, DYOR

@Sootysnipes
That is the situation that many find ourselves in
I made some superb decisions on this stock early on and secured a good return. And some sh@t ones later. My 400,000 whilst free I could of sold for 38p ie near £160,000 instead I watched it completely fall always in the hope a deal will land and it will come good but faced more dilution. The mms are currently quoting 8.5p on that volume so it’s a case of drip feeding it out if I close my position. Hence I have just left it again in blind faith but my book value is £40k - so that’s £120k of lost opportunity could be invested elsewhere.
So yes, I make some sh@t decisions.
If you were evaluating this today based on what’s in front it’s not a great buy at 10p that’s the reality. It’s not cheap at 10p because it’s burning cash and no sign of revenue until into 24.

Meanwhile, as you say other stocks doing well. Recently made a good premium trading KNB from 2p to 4p missed out on VAST despite it being on my watch list.

@rightback yes, laughter at my 4D call, you are right sh@t call backing it. £1.10 placement and we will be lucky to see 5p on relist. Total write off
But don’t think VAL is somehow protected from these risks. It has delivered zero revenue in the last 10 years to my knowledge and is not expecting any in 2023 unless THX gets funded and the 1.3m comes in. More likely come June they will need a new raise to ensure the business plans can be met to profit in 24. That’s possibly the time to buy then IF the forward plans look good and the board prove concept - until then jury is out.
GLA

@Iceman888
Stop chasing the Ace and averaging down. You can see L2 stop being so stupid. Wait
Even if resolution not passed the intent is there to dilute all even further as they need more cash. You have 3% dilution landing on 6th when broker shares are released, the placing broker shares are 100% likely to be sold. If 201 not finalised where is income coming from in the short term? It can only be you. Overheads just went up with the lab so cash burn higher and no revenue from that expected until into 2024. Also you don’t know if Nick is still going to hold this up, the risk profile on this AIM play has changed materially.
Seriously, see what they say at the GM, you need to know that and wait until after results out in April for the true picture. If the 201 deal is not completed by then we will be testing 5p if not before . We could end up back at 3.5p where we started in April 20 at this rate if the BOD don’t get their act together. Never chase AIM stocks @Ice and especially if Major holders are selling, there is always a reason
GL