Member Info for Porky9

Oh and nb...

The 2021 drilling campaign which resulted in no extractable helium found, they were in the wrong place, wrong sized drill, whatever whatever etc etc started 14th June 2021 and we had the disastrous results out by about 14th August.

The campaign was possibly wrong but they were at least drilling at optimum times. This kind of endorses why i think even if David pulls his finger out now, gets a deal rig deal agreed sharpish we will still be drilling in H2 in that June - September window at best and that's with luck on our side that he can get a rig deal done now.

keep everything crossed....

I cant quite grasp how David has gone from Hero to Zero over the last 12 months, its like the guy has totally lost the plot.

Last year he was interviewed regular and chatting about the rig coming over in parts so shipping wasn’t an issue blah blah, then it was we cant go with that rig but have another deal lined up with another partner that will arrive, just before the bloody rainy season, er herm but we will ignore that point. Now we understand that deal is a dead duck and they need to find another rig and wasting yet more time on this same issue. Its like Deja Vu all over again, yet again looking for another bloody rig....

This is all just burning the clock down, this rig situation should have been sorted whilst they were doing the survey work ready to go? Why was nobody at HE1 on that back in Feb 22????
What was David doing? I find it shocking they are back to square one again. ZERO has been achieved in the last 12 months since the survey work as far as I can see – are they all just sitting around in the sunshine drinking Kilimanjaro Beer all day at shareholders expense? I do wonder.

I genuinely think now with the heavy rainy season between March and end of May they are going to struggle to source a rig and install in H1, I think its more likely IF they do find one and a wiling partner with transportation and allowing for optimum drilling conditions, they want the ground wet but not working in a flood, we are looking at H2 and probably June-Sept onwards at best before the short rains start in October. Unless David updates with anything more positive?

They now have 10m in cash and a 43m mcap at todays 5.20p SP BUT buckets of shares out at 5p. Frankly the only thing he got right was getting the placing done at 5p. Had the further delay update landed before the placing, I think he would have struggled to secure that frankly, i really do.

Hate to say it but I think the SP will just drift now until some actual drilling starts, just disappointed that David wasn’t onto getting a rig set up in location significantly earlier. He really needs to up his game frankly going forwards.

Good Luck

@Adam
Thanks for that clarity, indeed i was thinking GLP accreditation. Obviously i don't know the lab market or the space as well as you do, its your domain but i do know Natalie Kenny who started up Biograd in Liverpool and i know it took some serious time to get the first lab up running and making a return. But as you say, focus on what they can turn around quick would imagine it will be competitive though. Anyhow see how it goes.
100% with Nick, if you joined the BOD that would be something. Have a great Christmas and New year.
@Nick
Thanks, your a top guy. You never know i might just join the party and put my ramping hat back on in 2023 if they can get their act together, might catch the next placing, you never know. Have a great break, i'm out of here now, flight tomorrow need some sunshine
Take care

@all
Its been fun, have a great Christmas all and remember to raise a glass to all and our absent friends. Take care now.

That video is 10mths out of date
Here is the current one:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cPjVKJIt4nM

The trades were yesterday, the TR1 update today after close.
Minor portfolio adjustment and that's fair enough. Good luck to him.

@Iceman888
It's not just about chart activity, if an SP is falling there is a reason for it. The problem with AIM is that often the deck is stacked, you do you research fully BUT you later find that its what the board don't say is more important than what they do say. Certain key facts kept from you.
Take Novacyt, the CEO lied, they confirmed major NHS contract awards what he didn't tell us was that there were pallet loads of product the NHS were trying to return and there were also issues in the machinery roll out. Even when the Independent reported on it, the company did not challenge. On 4D the director did not tell us there were issues with the Oxford finance lending arrangement and they were in fact in breach of covenants. SH were totally in the dark. Thats just two minor point exaamples.

Then you get other shady deals like the one Richard did at Sabien Tech where he comes up with a great idea, namely b.green, spends his time on that not the rest of the business which frankly is going nowhere, raises a load of cash on the back of Sabien ploughs it into b,green and then tells us b.green is in its own SPV which is then only part owned by Sabien and rest owned by Richard and his family and another party. Greedy b;sard but that's another example how the private AIM investor gets shafted.

Bottom line is you win some you lose some on AIM, take profits and don't get greedy. Even with VAL here you can bet your life that Suzy and Kevin know far more about what's going on at THX than we do.

Good luck to you, but @Iceman888 banter is one thing but don't get ****y, I have been in the market a long time and i am not vocal on every stock i back. I am generally vocal on stuff i want to back or needs promoting. At some point i will be back promoting this stock but its currently too expensive based on what i expect to happen next.

Have a good Christmas and New year
Pork's

@Iceman888
Very funny... nothing like the reality but enjoy the banter
Have a great Christmas and New year
Take care
Pork's

Hi Adam,
Thanks for taking the time to reply:-
1. Agree speculation, however when negotiating 201 they didn't go for ANY decent sized player. They went for start up that hasn't delivered. Had the money come in the pot on time, the SP would reflect that and we would be talking about the next deal. They have demonstrated ZERO experience of closing deals with top draw players so far.
2. Oh come on Adam, bloody hell, pick the phone up to ANY regional based VC fund or other and ask for an idea of stats. Seriously, the UK is in a bloody mess, businesses closing left right and centre and most of these funds are like vultures circling the opportunities. They have more deals in front of them than ever and are cherry picking. They don't need to pump cash into a high risk start up.
3. OK - if you have done your research i bow to that. But i still only have limited information and if that's all i can get, what chance has your average private investor that's considering investing in VAL got? that's my point. We remain in the dark.
4. OK
5. OK - you have lab experience, then lets see how they perform. can they make enough, quick enough to cover the costs - jury out.
6. I like your confidence in them - no idea the size of the lab support market but again lets see what they do. We can only hope for now they can make a success of it and we are not faced with another u-turn.
7. Going to disagree on this point. They knew when cash was running out, they should have raised at 20p+ earlier. I think they should raise 1.6m now at 8p. especially as they are sitting on 20m shares pre agreed. Time will tell.
8. Kind of you to give them that credit but not buying it Adam, the BOD have had ample chances to BUY and now is the time to do it and show confidence. It would send a real positive message to the market IMO

Good luck anyhow, I'm off now will return in the new year - Good Luck
Thanks again

@Novice20
Yep, fair point he could be, but still has a reasonable exposure at 500k of his family's cash.
That's his call to make

@PM2022
Think whatever you like. My position is irrelevant.

The fact here is that they sold out the crown jewels, their 201 best legacy asset backed by Cancer Research that was in the pipeline for the best part of five years and some not to a blue chip Biotech, or even a small biotech player but to stateside start up that has no money that has failed to deliver at EVERY milestone.

They missed EVERY deadline, didn't pay the $10k pcm lab support fees agreed and confirmed in the CENKOS broker note either, that was all conveniently forgot about and Worse still, the BOD at VAL rather than hold their feet to the fire, pull the exclusive and look for a new buyer, they continue the facade and removed the deadlines all together - now its on the whenever whenever

I tell you if its was Kevins own cash on the line not Shareholders would he do this????

I wouldn't mind but the deal with THX is so pathetic it would deliver next to FA cash in the first 12mths to VAL anyhow but it would have at least prevented the 10p placing had it been on time. Further, had the BOD been on the ball and been closer to what THX were doing they would have realised there was a high risk the cash would not come through on time and raised at 20p+ and been proactive rather than waiting to practically lights out and do an emergency raise.

Sorry but its p poor control of the situation. Now @PM2022 you can ramp, spin that anyhow you like but SH were materially let down as i see it.

If you are putting money up to support as a charity fair play to you, they are doing some valued research that's worth backing, but as a business investment case its been horrendous and there is no getting away from that. Raise after Raise, dilution, consolidation and more raises.

If Nick has any sense he will de-risk his position further, Sit on the cash and buy back in the next placing at 5p, when the SP climbs to 8p sell 40% and de-risk again. The guy is a prolific Investor, he invests for capital gains, he is not investing here for charity.

2/2 Cont…

6. Totally deluded to think they will overnight go from renting the new shiny lab and having a couple of million revenue coming in from clients to cover overheads. They must win the business from scratch, no previous history, it will take time and it will involve sales and marketing, who is doing that exactly? The business won’t fall out of the sky on them, they have to compete for it. They are not collecting the 10k pcm that THX signed up to, I dread to think how they will manage lab fees from other clients. Frankly, I am really looking forward to CENKOS next projection update so I can see exactly how they intend to get there, I will be impressed how CENKOS can spin this. The recent performance has been underwhelming.

7. They currently have 20m shares ready to go for working capital. If they issued them today, they could probably add £1.6m at 8p but they are deluding themselves. Just like the last time. Come April when the results to this December are published the exact cash burn will be confirmed and they will have 6-9mths max runway left. A raise then for working capital will be more likely back at 5p again as I don’t see a catalyst anytime soon to boost the SP. They are lining themselves up yet again to be in this position. Reactive not proactive.

8. No skin in the game. I am shocked frankly that neither Kevin, Suzy nor even Stella have brought any stock, what does that tell you? It tells me they are not confident in an investment return. They have their no risk options to fall back on. If I were at VAL and I knew the pipeline drugs were going to be worth millions, THX was going to come through shortly, I would be filling my boots with stock in the open periods. Reality is they know it will take time, they know more placings are likely and wont risk their own cash to be diluted.

I have this still on my radar to add but just cannot do it. I was thinking before of a buying target 7-8p but the way it is now, I can genuinely see this being left and left, zero action taken and them drift towards a capital raise at the eleventh hour again after results and it being done at further discount like 5p and them then doing a share consolidation job again. Perhaps they will buy at the next placing?

Anyhow, will leave now to the resident P&D crew here and when I get back in Jan take another look then. Likely review when CENKOS issue broker notes in April.

Good Luck but I see no immediate reasons to Buy as it stands, this is a very slow burn imo.

Pork’s

1/2

Just had the chance to watch the latest Investment brief before I go away sailing.

Frankly, the Naivety of the BOD is just breath taking as I see it.

1. Its clear from the update on the pipeline drugs that there will be zero income from these during 2023. NONE of them will be positioned to deliver revenue in the next 12 months. It will take significantly longer, period. Hence, cash burn will just continue until they need more.

2. Holding out for THX to come through for 201 is just utter nonsense. The start up hasn’t got funded in more than 12 months now. IMO there is next to zero interest in any VC, PE house or institutional investor wanting to back a bio start up when the market is flooded with significantly lower risk M&A and buy out deals that need funding that will deliver quicker returns. VAL are locked in now, if they change at this late stage its another twelve mths and outside the current cash runway.

3. A year on there is still no market provenance regarding the THX outfit, rest of the pipeline, prospectus, website anything nor are there any known examples of a previous bios invested in positioned and listed that THX or Ken has supported that have been demonstrated. This does not match with anything I have seen funded stateside. Wasted opportunity IMO.

4. I hold the opinion that as THX has got want they want without financial exposure they can simply wait until the drug is positioned has a Bio lined up and ONLY then do the deal. This is what I would do, why forward money to VAL at all? Do that when you know a deal is imminent. Best guess absolute minimum of 18mths. (9 mths to position/ 9 mths DD with potential party at best). THX have not delivered what they originally said and due to poor control by VAL they have allowed it to slip.

5. They now want to fund the rent on the lab out of savings? What? Another U-turn. The cost base has gone up significantly with recent appointments and new pipeline drugs. They have confirmed the cash runway is to end of 2023. So, we changed from buying a lab with clients with equity to renting one. What they mean is they are keeping the equity for a working capital raise instead and its us shareholders that will be paying for the lab rent.

Cont…

@Iceman888
Fair point and respected
None of us would post here at all if we didn't care.
The drugs could ultimately make a major difference but it will take time. Many have supported regardless but the fact is the BOD have let shareholders down with some poor decisions but it is what it is and the SP is reflecting that.
Down to them to try and turn it around
Good luck to you.
Pork's

How would you know, i am on the board of four coys...
talk about assumptions...
Anyhow, that's my business we are here to discuss VAL not individuals
leave you to it, check back January unless a further update lands
Good luck

@Iceman888
You keep bringing up 4D but its placement was at £1.10 , a fund collapsed due to exposure to a biotech involved and sold down their position. Its a VERY long chain of events. Meanwhile the MD did not give us clarity on a loan arrangement so SH expected that the cash runway was significantly longer than it was. SH also expected a product on the verge of commercialisation to happen before funding was required. The debt was called and it brought the company down. That's a short version.

I traded that stock and made some money out of it trading however, i had also built up a decent holding which i have had to write off against capital gains. It happens

BUT this stock is not free from risk @Icemand888 i am not adding to my current exposure here at this level because i consider it expensive and position will likely get diluted. I believe i will be able to buy in at 7p.

Further, i am not 100% happy with some decisions made, 201 specifically i hated the deal from day one. I would trust Suzy with my life, granted. Not so sure Kevin plays with a straight bat but there is much behind the scenes we don't know about.

Lets just see how events unfold over the next few weeks but don't be blind to the risks, its going to take time here

Good Luck

PS - I still hold 400,000 free stock here so I'm entitled to post as i see fit. I will see what the position is in another three or four years but it will take time and we will get further diluted from here, of that i'm absolutely certain.

Adam - You can clearly afford a Lamborghini so good luck to you. You have a big exposure here already as it is, if i was in your position I would be de-risking and taking profits frankly, learn from Nick. Don't fall into the trap of being in love with with the business. Think diverse investment strategy.

@Others, You can post what you like about other stocks i have been vocal on, that's what forums are for. I expected the previous placement well before it happened and the ramping crew constantly said "Suzy said NO placement will happen" and then it did.
So for clarity i will leave you with this thought and leave the ramping squad to it:-

It would make TOTAL commercial sense for VAL to issue the 20m shares they have authority for now and bring in an extra 1.5m to 2m now whilst they can do that. IF they don't they risk a) the share price falling after results are published if cash burn proves to be higher than it was previously which is what i expect hence the 20m would bring in significantly less capital and b) having to go to to shareholders to secure support for higher levels of dilution which would be challenging and finally c) worst case scenario; its left too late to recover from, if they run it to the wire it will be a 5p or less placement.

I don't know what discussions they are having with THX but i'm betting THX wont pay out anything until the patents are sorted and they have a bio lined up to take it forward. This will take much longer imo 1yr plus - IF this is the case and VAL suspect so they will appreciate that cash wont be coming in from 201 anytime soon and moreover BEFORE the cash runway runs out. This is why i would advise them to raise now not later.

Anyhow, each to your own. Good Luck

Frankly, I am amazed anyone is buying at 12.5p which still represents a 25% premium to the June 10p placement. Its crazy especially with a further placement likely.

I can see the ramping club are out in full force, but economic market conditions remain absolutely horrendous. The update practically confirms that THX won’t be sending money anytime soon and it will take much longer to conclude 201.

Adam, you say in your post that they have cash runway through to August as if that’s a great thing. It’s not, it means that unless they get revenue in from somewhere they will need another cash call. I have to say that by my own calculation I thought the cash runway was slightly longer to end of 2023 BUT if they do lease a lab shortly that would add to the cash burn so your estimate could well be right. You are closer to them than me.

The mcap today is close to £12m, CAB estimate £1.6m – this stock is NOT trading under its cash value, its pipeline assets are only worth what someone will pay for them. I await CENKOS next broker update.

I am not pushing for a share issue as you suggest, I’m simply saying if I were advising the board I would do it now. Remember, as at today they already have authority to issue 20m shares without shareholder vote. If the share price falls further on the year end results first quarter, that stock will be worth far less to them.

A number of the ramping club argue that 201 is worth X, 301 is worth Y etc etc. This is an illusion. It is only worth what someone will pay. THX for example for 201 are currently paying ZERO. It will take significant time, VAL need to find a new buyer for 201 but that’s something else. It will take years for these drugs to be commercialised.

I am criticised here for buying 4D that went bankrupt, but I would point out that it had 11 pipeline drugs and one that treated IBS ready to be commercialised after all the trial stages awaiting FDA, the FDA process alone was 7mths and counting. Biotech’s take years to have drugs at the commercial stage. Suzy has fully explained it’s a 10-year cycle.

The drugs in VALs development have great potential, I love them, I hope one day they reach market, but they are still years off. Investing here is a long-term thing, they need cash to continue development so posters here telling you that instance riches await is for the birds so be prepared to invest VERY long term

Finally, finding partners to back drug development is also challenging, interest rates are rising and stateside many of the big players are sitting on their hands conserving cash, debt is not attractive either and this situation could well go on into 2024 and beyond, let alone next year. That’s how I see it. Outlook remains poor short term imo.

Good Luck

@Ironmighty
No that's a good point.
Previous Cash burn was about 110k pcm then we had funding of two projects two staff members and an NED on top. It would be hard to know until we see the full year figs but suspect it will return to the higher cash burn levels again and no doubt all had a pay rise after the capital came in. Lets not forget also that they appointed a second broker Turner Pope, no idea what their fees are, lets hope its not another equity deal like the CENKOS one on the horizon and also employed an external PR agency and don't know the fees for that either.

By my best guess and it is only a guess, as they were practically burnt out before the placing, if cash burn returned towards 150k pcm. We talking close to 900k over 6mths. So will have by my estimate £1.6m left at best at this year end, so no, they haven't burnt through it all yet.

Turning to why now, put simply 1) i believe that THX wont secure any capital what so ever until they are the verge of securing a player to take it forward - why should they? they don't need to as VAL have given them an open mandate. This will take longer than a further year imo. 2) If i am right and the cash burn is at this level AND they want to lease a lab that cash burn will rise even higher. IF accounts are published early April and show the level of cash burn i suggest then the market will quickly calculate that cash will be down to 1m in April on those results with a max 7 mth runway left. The SP would be adjusted to reflect and issuing the 20m of shares they have authority for will be worth much much less. 3) putting my NED hat on, if i was advising this board i would be telling them to get the shares issued now, get the bad news out before Christmas and take 1.5m to 2m off the table to bolster their working capital position and NOT leave it until the death when it's too late.
So for what its worth, That's what i think anyhow.
GL