Member Info for Porky9

@jinky58

@elles
To be fair the ASK here is still 15% higher than the placing from a few weeks back. So all those in at 10p are still in a nice positive position and the market got UGLY in that time so its holding up really well.

Short term stock remains volatile IMO but once lab found and further placing done, new board additions and share options done they can finally start creating revenue streams and that's when it gets interesting. Just takes time.

GLA

On a positive, reads like they have support to complete a further raise for the lab so hopefully they can move this forward.

Also, Kevin recognises they need Bod appointments to strengthen the team and now active. Brilliant.

The whole point of a forum is to discuss the pros and cons and I’m all for that. IF the BOD is reading this forum, then at least they know where shareholder concerns are. BUT I really object when talk here starts to become aggressive, totally not necessary. Pack its in.

I’m one of the first to point out the short comings of this biotech but equally they are doing some things great. I said a couple of weeks ago that its like a pantomime here at times but even I’m getting sick to death of the arse end of Dobbin the Pantomime horse AKA George, often when he’s ****ed (Satu is the head end) keep raising the same point over and over about the LOI and the license period for 201.

Now Adam has also mentioned this but I’m going to say it again for full clarity. This is the FACT as I asked Suzy directly and it was fully covered off three times now: -

Valirx announced last December see the RNS that they had re-negotiated and re-stated the CRT license for VAL201, ostensibly to allow the TheoremRx deal go ahead, by splitting out the oncology and non-oncology licenses, but also updating the terms throughout.

This means that the license that George knew is now well and truly ancient history. This is one of the lists of skeletons in the closet that Suzy and team sweep away when they came in when George was moved on.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are issues in the business that need addressing, non of them insurmountable but the licence of 201 isn’t one of them. Nor is the LOI from THX, whether they can ever raise any money is the bigger issue and you all know my feelings on that, but the bloody contracts themselves are Not in question. Why George keeps posting this is beyond me.

In closing, I would say to George. If you have a point to raise, make it with full clarity, confirming exactly what you are trying to imply, it can then be put to the BOD for detailed reply. Otherwise, its just white noise without any substance.

As a side point @TDK – No I am not shagging Claire, I do wish you would leave it out.

Pork’s

"4D pharma is a world leader in the development of Live Biotherapeutics"

Yes, all those invested never doubted the potential of LBP's and todays RNS is yet further confirmation they WERE onto something. Hundreds of millions of pounds has been invested into business and its sciences to get to this stage and yet now highly likely its going to be picked up for FA and SH well and truly shafted.

@Iceman
Fair point, fair play to you, wish you well with your portfolio.
Its tough at times

@roace
LMOL, indeed pigs can get very slippery, i should know
Take care

Adam you are a terrific guy and God knows this business needs your help.
Can you consider two things please:-

1. Would you push for two new Board additions. One to replace Kevin A and one to bolster the board. IE two experienced people that can add value and direction and help them avoid some of these blunders being made. Things have to change IMO we cant go on doing same thing and expecting a different outcome as i keep saying,

2. Push for them to Issue THX with a formal deadline to raise and pay them funds. No money no exclusive arrangement. VAL need to start negotiating with other potential partners now. WE can wait only so long for them to come through. They are not even paying the $10k USD a month that was confirmed to CENKOS it's just NOT good enough and this needs to change.

I would like to know more about when the lab can get started but that's a different issue. Immediate priority is sorting THX and strengthening the board IMO

Thanks

@Iceman
I said 4D represented about 11% of current my portfolio- i have wrote off cica 150k
But that's my business, cant win them all.
To cook an omelette you have to break some eggs, that's life
GL to you with your portfolio

@Iceman
Think what you like
I hold my hand up and say i got it wrong on both NCYT and 4D
If you have a perfect record buying penny shares on the AIM i doff my hat off to you. The best you can hope for is that your WINNERS deliver greater returns than your LOSERS and learn when to take profits and when to take risks.

With VAL it remains on my investment radar, I have made great returns on this stock, it has potential but its a good while off frankly. If two board appointments are made i will consider until then doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome is not for me.
Also THX need kicking into touch with a firm deadline. If VAL need to change partner they should do it now whilst they have the funds to do so.
And then we have the lab, the one guaranteed way to start getting revenues in to avoid future constant spend/raise but they are doing nothing about it.....
That's how i see it but yes, your right @Icemen i may have called this one wrong but short term my gut feeling is the SP will remain volatile as penny shares on the AIM are
No Guarantees
GL

@Pinfinder
Sorry you are correct it is 25m issued at 10p not 35m
But we still need to clear those out not in sticky hands.
GL

@elles
That's why its vital to have a balanced portfolio and not fall in love with stocks.

4D was a disaster, 11% of my AIM portfolio written off, only benefit is a write off against my capital gains and dented my current year returns and although i had a brilliant previous year i came out well ahead but profits would have been higher had i not kept averaging down on NCYT another disaster stock. Prior to that my biggest loss was about five years ago buying into igas that was another pig although its now stating to recover because people are betting fracking will start to make progress.

Meanwhile, With VAL those that made the real money were the a) those that got in on the 7.5p placing and those that didn't fall in love with the stock and took profits when they were on the table. Long term holders unfortunately don't get rewarded. Sad but true.

@Iceman
Yes your right Sang was irritating but to fair he did call it right regarding Oxford finance and it was Oxford finance that brought the business down

Lets see how events unfold...

The situation is that Shareholders have a number of hurdles to overcome short term which is why I believe we will have further short-term downside:

1. There are 35m of shares recently issued at 10p I am going to estimate at least half of this is in non sticky hands just waiting for an increase in the bid to cash out at profit. Let’s call it 20m. They are in the hope that THX gets funded and a quick spike on the SP for them to cash out. There is 10% gain currently on the table with two MMs left that will deal at 11p. We need to offload this lot ASAP to move on.

By my rough calculation about 8m of this is currently out so still some to offload. When the SP hits 10.5p some might just take it to avoid a loss situation. That’s the problem with placements, many are not in it to support the business longer term they are in it for a quick gain.

2. The 8.5m of director share options are not issued yet but I don’t see theses as an issue when they are as they will go into sticky hands. So just a little dilution.

3. I think they will need to issue the 20m additional shares asap to get the tCRO off the ground. As each day goes on, they are just burning more cash. The lab will change that situation but doing nothing about it currently. But it needs doing IMO.

Based on past decisions and NOT adding to the BOD I expect much of the same. They will leave it until its too late again. THX will need more time and the longer they leave it the lower the placement for the lab will be.

4. Once we get over the above and the SP starts recovering CENKOS warrants will kick in after 22p and they will sell the lot flooding the market taking us down again. Just before this event, anyone left at 10p would sell half and be in for free with the rest to de-risk, that’s what I would do as its commercial sense not emotional sense.

I think many think the THX position is going to change events and they will suddenly get funded. I don’t agree. I think it will take them years if not at all. It’s been nearly a year already. If it does land it only brings in 1.6m over two years from that point but it would help future working capital.

Read the report directly from CENKOS on the research hub:-
https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal/#/portal/cenkos-securities/

GL

PS - the H1 results should be out first week of Sept unless they delay it. It will show no further major progress in respect of 201 and continued cash burn of circa 110k a month. Until the lab gets started they have no immediate way to get cash in and getting the lab off the ground plus the board additions needs to happen ASAP IMO.

Quick answer is yes, dealing charge with who you use stands.
So i would leave them, just in case a miracle happens and Cineworld doesn't go into administration.
I am amazed they didn't suspend the shares last week frankly.

Anyone know if i would be able to take the suspension date of 24th June and shares held at that time suspended if they can be treated as a total write off, loss against CG in the tax year?

Appreciate we might see 6p or zero pence or something other ultimately, that's if administrators don't take the balance in fees but that could take ages to settle.

If i treat as a total 100% loss now and it turns out later i got something back can i declare what i got back in the following tax year? Or am i only allowed to claim once the account settles?

Anyone experience of this?

I have put losses through before but that's when i have had a buy and sell date. In this situation its like being stuck in limbo land. Shares not sold just suspended and not likely to ever trade again.

Sorry to read about this guys....

Looks all too easy these days to file a chapter 11 stateside:-
"Cineworld is expected to file a chapter 11 petition in the US, and is also considering filing for an insolvency proceeding in the UK"

Hopefully they don't and you can get a restructure deal but its probably a slim chance.

Having just wrote off an eye watering sum myself with an Investment in 4D Pharma that filed a chapter 11 I feel your pain. Thing is they know they file a chapter 11 and that's the debt written off, any assets sold, the likes of AMC will just pluck out the offerings and it will go to those with the charges first.

BOD are accountable for this IMO. AMC is starting to recover, there is a lot of scope for Cineworld but handling poor, they could have done better but we are where we are.

Good luck for next week guys, not much more to say is there really...

@Webbo
Jeeze, I'm not upsetting anyone. Adams a top guy and he knows i know that. He is not upset by anything, he is an experienced investor for Gods sake. Adam knows what is required here.

If we cant have a proper discussion here and discuss the pros and the cons what's the point of the BB?

There are posters on here going on about the CENKOS warrants deal like its a positive thing and something to look forward to. Its bloody not. It was practically the worst deal ever done, what were they thinking? They gave away 4m shares for FA. What will happen is should the SP ever climb to the strike price we get instant dilution as when the shares get issued and worse 4m of share sells flooding the market as CENKOS offload them. CENKOS are not an investor of stock their priority is to earn fees they have no interest in being a shareholder. I was rather hoping when the 10p placing was done they might have re-negotiated that deal but it didn't happen.

As it stands SH need an update really on THX progress, it will come but this all takes time

GL

Hi Adam
Apologies - it was your TR 1 that came in after the placement
I'm not your Son BTW, unfortunately for me I'm older than you are
Take Care - GL
Pork's

@Iceman888
No Testing, On level 2 its Only WINS left at 12p its then 11.5p down to CENKOS the house broker at 10p on the Bid- says it all. The SP is practically 22.5 % above the 10p placing with two months more cash burn to consider and no update on the THX position.

I think the SP is doing amazing well to hold this level. This is NOT a cheap stock. But if you, Adam and Nick want to keep buying to prop the SP up well good luck to you, rest of the market want to see some changes.

You can only pump and artificially prop the SP up for so long.

This will take time IMO

GL

@Chesh
You are posting utter BS
I have only sold stock ONCE and that was on the 2nd November - 1m shares at 38p and something like 300,000 in the low 40s. I currently hold 400,000 not sold that frankly i now regret not also selling at that same level.
Prior to that i was VERY happy buying and adding to my position and VERY bullish.

What changed my position was that I was expecting 201 which i consider the crown jewels of the legacy drugs to get taken up by a major, AZN or a big well funded player or similar.

I was shocked to the core to find they were looking to give those assets over to a start up stateside SPV that had no capital and no history of taking a drug to commercialisation.

Since that RNS, we have had nothing but disappointment from this start up with failed delivery timelines, no payment for the support contract and now the timeline for them to completely removed all together. Even if they get the first bit of cash to VAL for the milestones over the next 24 mths we have no guarantees they still wont struggle to get more capital to pay us later. I also don't like the secrecy around this start up. No prospectus, no Information.

Now the ramping club here wont like me for pointing out this obvious point above but its how it is. I wasn't much of a fan of the back slapping on placement day either. Yes, well done they kept the lights on by forcing a 10p placement BUT shareholders took a massive hit, a hit that IMO could have been avoided or materially reduced had they acted sooner. As i said last week, even had they acted at the start of April, some 8 weeks earlier we were still at 30p. We now have massive dilution as a result. You telling me that mid April they still were confident the money was landing before end of June. I would want to know who the lead investors are who is backing it etc etc.

Anyhow my opinion, or what i do makes no difference. It's now down to VAL to deliver. I stand by my call that the BOD needs strengthening with two appointments to avoid repeat of past mistakes and IF its looking like THX cant get the initial payments to us then they act quickly and move to find a partner that can.

It's business, not a social club of who VAL like working with, sorry if that offends..

GLA, back end of the month to see how event's unfold, not commenting further so don't draw me in.

They make the appointments, sort the lab plans, get some control over the future of 201 and they can move forwards. Otherwise IMO its business as usual, no change and what CAB runway they currently have will burn down again until they need another raise and i want to avoid that.

GLA

@rhubarbmk2
Adam, I’m not going to cross promote. Forum members can’t stand any negative points as it is and last thing, they want is me promoting virtues of other plays to buy over #VAL. I wish you well with #VAL it has potential, but BOD needs bolstering for sure. I will pop back end of the month, lets see if THX revert by then.

@Iceman888
Its all relative, if #VAL add more product lines the cash burn will increase. The lab concept could however change that once they outline plans as its a way to bring income in rather than just burn money, especially if its still going to be a few years before any drug can reach commercialisation. I would back a placing for the lab at the right price.

The curve ball came from DHSC on #ODX but Colin’s P poor management was atrocious. Also, director sales Brady sold at 95p Rhodes sold at 79p were also telling. For me now on AIM stocks if Directors sell, I generally cash out. They know more than I do.

Incidentally, I also closed my position for a small profit on #SNT a while back. Again, another example where the business has a brilliant idea, namely b green but rather than build out under the AIM listing, pull a crafty and create a SPV partially owned by the business and bulk separately by the directors. Time and Time again we see directors totally abuse AIM and shareholders.

With #VAL I do think Suzy is an honest broker, that’s a major strength in this stock but she does need help, we both agree on that and that needs to change. Bring on board additions I say.

@dealer55
The job of the MM is to create a market, CFDs all kinds of things going on in the background with different interests manipulating the SP. If THX get funded or something material, we will get an RNS at open Monday otherwise expect swings. During 2021 i recall the SP bounced in the 18-22p range for about a year, we have far more shares in issue now so quite conceivable this could bounce around the 10p placing level for some time unless something material changes.

GLA check back in a few weeks.

Pork's