Member Info for Porky9

IF THX secure 225m of funding, can they chuck 20m at 4D to save it
That would be nice

LOL
Major P&D being attempted LOL - you cant kid a kidder
Hopefully, a spike on my shares would be well nice, i will take that.

IF THX secure funding Suzy will be the first to tweet it and release an official RNS not some tweet expert. Not to mention the funding is being done stateside NOT in France

GLA

The website page is now updated following the 25m new shares at 10p
https://www.valirx.com/aim-rule-26

HL hasn't updated yet although the increased market cap reflects the 90m shares in issue.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/valirx-plc-ord-gbp0.001/company-information

I understand Adam added in this placing but its not updated yet but that might be because they can only do that once a revised TR1 is issued.

We are also awaiting the update on the 6.5m of share options to be issued.

GLA

@Ironmighty
Normally a prospectus of some description would be issued confirming the size of the placing and what the deal is. You don't negotiate on a placing. In a period of over 9mths, I would expect at least a lead investor and some kind of clarification regarding how much the initial raise is for. Is it an IPO listing or Private Equity backed deal or even Angel funded or Crowd funded. We have zero clarity.

Nick, You can do as you please and so can I .
You are bang out of order in your comments to me here. On the 17th you posted on this very forum to quote:-

No wonder Kevin A left ,he must’ve had enough
SuZy is a nice lady but she is no Ceo ..I would like to see Kevin C leave the BOD and SuZy become chair and get a new CEO who won’t take crap from Theoremx or Cenkos
Time for change after todays news ..8 months is shambolic

You also in a DM to me commented "Suzy is also Clueless"

I have been a massive advocate and supporter of you Nick and yet you insult me on this forum. Just because you added some at 10p suddenly everything is fine. Well its bloody well not. We still have two directors at the helm unable to control the situation on 201 and 301 and you can quote all you like about the EV, i totally agree BTW however, a business is only worth what someone will pay for it and look at the market, its a mess. Valirx will continue to burn cash and it needs to licence a legacy product. FACT.

My view is that Kevin and Suzy need support on the BOD to do that. Nothing will change otherwise. They sort the BOD out and i will add further to my position. As long as it remains just the Kevin and Suzy show I don't have full confidence and neither did you or Adam only a week or so ago, so what's changed apart from you both adding a few to maintain your current position? Do tell

Hmmm
Not de-ramping to buy in. I could buy in now if i want. I can also buy in once the dust has settled if i so choose. I have block of stock, i am also looking at other plays, there are lots of opportunities on the market.

Don't call me a fool Nick, Actually what you are expecting is that you will get a bounce from 10p and then top slice to reduce exposure. Nothing wrong with that, it was the case last time. I was building my position buying the price was climbing and then you sold a chunk. So you are not quite the Angel but that's business. Ultimately you want an ROI. I totally get that. When i sold a chunk on the THX news I was heavily criticised. Fair enough.

Fool, not so sure yet. Where i was a fool was not selling all my holding at 35p to buy back at 10p

Heck of a lot of shares now in issue, just shy of 100m and no sign that THX will actually get funded may still have to revert to a plan B in a few months time.

Capital for a lab will also be required and no idea how that will be secured but they still have permission to issue up to another 20m of shares. No clarity yet on the 6.5m of options and the terms but assume that's listing shortly.

I don't get how only a week ago you were both also critical of the current situation with the BOD and now you have topped up at 10p which to be fair is the right thing to do to protect your own position, you are now bullish on the situation. Nothing has changed.

I would consider adding here ONLY following board additions otherwise we are in for much of the same and in 18 to 24mths another share issue and raise required. This has to change. The ONLY way for VAL to get revenue in going forwards is by licensing deals of the legacy drugs or support work when they have acquired a lab and that requires good solid negotiation skills.

See how it goes, GL

I am not in the telegram group despite a loss here of about 160k which fortunately i can at least offset half of it that wasn't in ISA accounts against capital gains

However, the whole situation stinks. Talk of legal action is frankly all pie in the sky. I am not going on a witch hunt and interested in chucking more money at this or funding legal action against Duncan or anyone else bloody pointless. Bit different like the HUR situation where they had a fund fronting it.

What we need is either the business funded and relisted back on the AIM. It cant go back on the NASDAQ now anyhow i understand which is a blessing frankly, awful mistake. OR the business sold to a Bio at a level where we see at least some recovery of our investment

Currently i have a number of biotech investments and this sort of situation just puts me off the sector frankly. Which is a shame as without investment we will never cure anything BUT we constantly get shafted if not by the very same directors that ask for our support in the first place as the cash comes far too easily to them or by scum bag shorters out to destroy the business and take us down with them. Sick of it.

Also, Duncan knew about this situation and awarded them a bloody massive pay rise, you couldn't make it up. Hindsight is a wonderful thing BUT note to self whenever anyone with a large share holding starts selling get the hell out regardless of possible reasons.

GLA here, i really hope a commercial buyer found and this doesn't go pre-pack PE funded MBO.

@Siennaj
The directors did buy shares in the placing. It confirms same in the RNS confirmation:-
"The Directors of the Company have confirmed their intention to subscribe through the Fundraise an amount of £32,500"

So there will be 325,000 Shares out of this share issue paid for at 10p going specifically to Directors plus 6.5m in Directors share options but we don't know at what prices or terms yet.

I consider this as a positive as they should have shares in the business

GLA

Yes BUT are you confident that Kevin and Suzy have the skills to make the negotiations to get these over the line when the time is due, its evident you know the science and frankly god knows we could really do with you on the Board OR at least someone with your skill sets.

If you are looking at 2.5yrs that's the cash done again and another placing if not managed correctly, the current runway is out before then and we have the lab acquisition to consider at what cost. Will that be a another crap negotiation that dilutes us again?

I totally share your confidence in the potential of these products but i don't have the confidence based on the dire handling of both 201 and 301, no set timelines, no set milestones stated or reported on, that Kevin and Suzy can do this alone. For me i really want to see two top draw appointments, one to replace KA and one to add further value PLUS an experienced contracts manager of sorts if either of the two new appointments are also not as strong in that area. The business desperately needs this in my opinion. We cant do the same things and expect a different outcome as i see it.

Would you support in trying to lobby both Kevin and Suzy to consider this? Suzy is NOT a formidable negotiator which is what Kevin thinks and that really concerns me, surely you must be thinking the same? You cant possibly be happy with the handling of 201 can you? Your thoughts on the above points would really be of value. Thanks

Porks'

@Mer400
The example you give of DNL proves how difficult this market is even when you get a drug to commercialisation. As you say its trading well under its cash value but that’s because as per most biotech’s they eat money whilst trying to develop drugs.

With VAL its cash burn is £1.25m a year. The placing extends its cash runway, so it has call it up to two years wriggle room at the current burn rate. Its newer university pipeline drugs will still be years off commercialisation so income can only come from successful licencing of the legacy assets.

201 is now effectively locked in on an exclusive to THX without any timelines. It could sit with THX paying nothing and raising nothing for years and Share holders will soon tire of that situation. 301 out in Japan with no update for years and 401 without update. There is great potential here, but it needs strong negotiating hands, and we don’t have that currently IMO unless board additions are made. They can’t negotiate for toffee.

The lab plan can add revenues, but the question will be how they fund the first one. Will it be via equity or some other merger deal, how good a deal, just don’t know the detail yet.

In terms of the increased shares in issue in principle you would expect some kind of bounce from 10p once everything resolves but markets remain ugly and IMO still a risk short term of a quick pump and those 10p buyers taking a quick 10-20% short term. Time will tell. Currently see how events unfold cash burn continues if they don’t get a grip of licencing deals.

Finally, I will give this a further go once dust settles if the BOD is strengthened, I regret not selling all my stock now at 35p but hindsight is a wonderful thing but, I want to see those appointments made, the Suzy and Kevin show is not enough for me now, but this can be sorted. Let’s hope so anyhow.

GLA

IMO there is only one advantage to an action group and that is as long as they are represented at the administrators they could help stay off any sneaky PE funded MBOs on the cheap where the debt gets covered off and the IP gets effectively given away and SH gets 100% shafted with Duncan keeping control.

In this situation the action group could vote to reject that and moreover force the administrators to a) get another valuation for the business and b) extended the period of advertising for a buyer to seek out any fresh bids.

IMO there must be a buyer somewhere that would pay to acquire all of the assets at a respectable value, strip out the major costs, the vaccines milestones would practically cover the OF debt over period anyhow and in this situation, which is our best hope, at least return something to SH.

Currently i fear the former. Lets see how events unfold.

I wasn't there but i did catch it live and frankly i wanted to hide under the desk, she was really giving it some. Bloody embarrassing.

All a bit sad really, two years on and evidently still cant let go, just like the fat frog here, he continues to follow and call for the companies demise and revelling in any mistakes made. It really is time for him to let go, its just not healthy.

@PM2022
We cant change the past only the future.
The THX deal is a mess but its already been agreed and it may come off with any luck?

Yes I'm saying strengthen the board so that they discuss all future deals and decide best terms and Suzy just fronts it and puts the deal forward. Either that or they appoint some kind of contracts manager to handle that side of deals. 70% of what Suzy is doing is effective IMO its her lack of commercial acumen on contracts that lets her down. This knowledge gap could be covered by the board. Clearly she is NOT getting the support currently as i see it. What was Kevin doing when they were discussing this and proposing terms with THx???

No bloody way would i want to see Satu back, no way. A massive cost and yes probably would be more ballsy on the contracts side than Suzy, you could tell that from her at the AGM but a nightmare on the rest. As CEO there are a number of areas you need to be strong in.

It is pure speculation and total guesswork

Lets face it there is a heck of a lot of IP at 4D including over 2,000 patents, 14 drugs at various stages, the labs and manufacturing facilities etc etc and goodwill has to have some value. However its totally anyones guess IF we as SH will see anything back from that value

We read that the future vaccines milestone payments from Merck were worth something, cant remember what that was now was it 15m or something? The cash burn was 2m a month. The debt that was being called in was 13.86 USD which is, call it £11.5m it had some cash at bank as it wasn't due to run out of working capital until Q4 call it 5m.

So VERY rough back of cig packet calculation, for it to relist and have enough capital to trade forwards for the next year as a going concern until it can position Blautix or do a further share issue, get milestone payments in etc etc and pay off the debt OF called in its probably going to need £35m of capital or something like that is my guess?

The administrators will just want to cover debt and earn their fees. Not sure how difficult it would be just to take the IP over at a fire sale price without 4D staff to work it. An offer to take it over for the IP would need at least some staff to run it and transfer in under tupe. I cant see Duncan working for some other Biotech just for wages and write off his own investment and he did have loads of shares in this business and options and own cash invested.

So i think only three ways this can go:-

1. Some miracle finance deal arranged for the business to relist so that it can later raise capital on the NASDAQ in which case it comes back online and everyone happy. To do that i'm guessing it would need the £35m as outlined to give it a years working capital. Cash is normally worth 1.5 to 2.00 X. The mcap at 16p when we crashed was 29m hence it would relist and imo the SP would rise. Plus not to mention all those short would want to close out. As i don't short myself, not sure what happens when you sell stock you don't own when shares are suspended? But i would say in this situation it would give us the positive outcome we want.

2. They actually find a buyer like one of the big pharma players who make a low ball offer but one that delivers some value like 50m and its sold as a going concern in which case its potentially a good result for SH And good for Duncan as he instantly gets all his own shares paid and options cashed and comes out with an OK return - This is what i would do if i was Duncan.

3. Unfortunately, High chance that SH will be completely shafted and they may try some sort of Private equity backed MBO to buy all the assets at fire sale prices where the administrators get the fees and money to pay off OF and the PE house gives Duncan a load of shares as part of the deal and the working capital to trade. The downside to this is that he might need more cash later in which case the PE take more and more ownership until he is fo

@OB Agree with you fully and @Drshan agree likewise

The fat frog was a bloody nightmare and sorry but the Mrs gobbing off at the AGM was an utter disgrace. I wanted to get under my own table at home, gawd knows what Suzy was thinking!!!

I'm fine if Adam stays as SH liaison, he is a busy guy so its a two way street BUT Kevin and Suzy need to recognise the board needs to be strengthened, they have weaknesses and they shouldn't make decisions just between them. Going forwards all deals should be considered by a panel, I genuinely think this is the only way to resolve this.

GL

When Suzy joined in 2020, she and Kevin only got about £23k a year each. I don’t know what the current salary this year for these two because the accounts not published yet, but George sucked £148k out in the 2019 year and Satu sucked £193k out. I don’t think Kevin and Suzy earn anything like that amount but that’s a good comparison
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03916791/filing-history

In 2020 Kevin Alexander and Gary Desler were both on a salary of 65k. So now KA has retired they should be able to add someone decent to the board to at least replace him.

So what I’m saying is, even with this raise they still have to make a pound go a long way and they don’t pay the high salary levels to get top draw positions filled BUT they could afford to replace KA and buy in two other Non execs on top with specific Biotech skills at a similar salary level to KA to build a solid executive committee. These roles would pay for themselves because they could prevent future mistakes.

Last thing we want is an ill-thought-out lab acquisition on stupid terms or something similar to hit us down the road as the SP starts to recover. So, my call is they both should remain on the board if they recognise, they need help and will embrace it and work with new directors and tread carefully with well thought out planning and not rush into deals.

I look forward to seeing how events unfold. As stated, they referred to reviewing the skills gaps in the business lets hope something comes of that.

GLA

Porks’

So onwards and upwards from here as its the only way. I certainly don’t want the fat frog back that’s for sure, so yes, it could be a lot worse. Nothing insurmountable for sure BUT they must recognise the short comings and make those board additions.

@SouthernInvestor I fully accept that you don’t trust my position but park that to one side. I am one individual. I stand by my earlier comments.

I like Suzy, on the upside I think she has some great communication skills, and she understands the science and I do see her as the Voice at Valirx for Women’s Oncology. On the downside she is a dire negotiator and has made mistakes in the role and moreover needs support, she simply does not have strong negotiation skills IMO.

The first two blunders regarding the CENKOS deal and handling of extensions without service contract payments were bad enough, we now have the placing at 10p which was lower than everyone expected and she snook in the broker placing using last years resolution giving maximum authorised space to issue more shares if they need to. Now that’s fair enough BUT we must have that board bolstered so that we don’t see further errors or decisions made that impact the share price that are not in line with SH Interests.

I agree with your points @PM2022 and @TDK in an ideal world we would buy in a top draw Biotech CEO and chair, but the truth is we don’t have the money for that BUT what we can do is bolster the board with additions to cover off the skills gaps. That would work.

The average salary of a UK pharmaceutical company CEO is £695,000, whilst the Chairman’s average salary is £131,000.

The median basic salary of an executive director on the board of a UK pharmaceutical company is £178,000
https://www.nextpharmajob.com/common/content/docs/pharma_exec_pay_summary.pdf

Cont....

Kevin said at the meeting to quote "Suzy is a formidable negotiator" and he was fairly clear he didn't think Adam joining the board would be a good idea.

I actually voted for Suzy to stay in the poll but without doubt the board needs bolstering with experienced support IMO. I don't see any issue with her being the face of women's Oncology at Valirx BUT having just Kevin to refer to is not healthy. This is where the issue is IMO.

As i keep saying, you don't know what you don't know and Kevin has backed these decisions, lets not lose sight of that, what would be better would be to add three directors and create a solid executive committee where they collectively explore the options before implementing the decisions. In that situation this business could be awesome, just use Suzy to front it and communicate which are her strengths.

Failing that i would agree with TDK Keep Suzy and request Kevin step down. What ever the case the board has to be strengthened.

They did say they will be reviewing the skills in the business, maybe we will hear more on this?

GLA

@Sang
speculation - you don't know - you are just guessing.

Lets see what the administrators come back with. Hopefully the business gets financed and saved or sold and shareholders recover something rather than nothing.

Outlook bleak but still hope it can be saved until we hear otherwise. Everything else is wild speculation, he said she said i think - Fact is we don't know yet

Good luck all genuine holders

@roace
The CAB was 594k to end of Dec 21, the cash burn is circa 105k pcm. So the cash runway only gave them until end of June if no money came in from the proposed THx deal. It was the right move to do the placing quickly and was expected.