Member Info for Porky9

@VanV
Its one of the reasons i invested time into posting but also re-posting the same key points on the days where the board is spread with miss-information to distract.
SH are often fickle and many do not research, they don't read the broker notes they read something in the paper then rush to buy the shares. This is why we have had SH selling here, a business delivering incredible results for investment in possibly overvalued stocks with "Potential" that are yet to deliver anything.

@Kaeren
Well Biden has put $ 50 bn aside just for testing. Even a small slice of that would give us a major boost :)
Feels like the tide is turning......

@Tomozulu
Brilliant point. I worked on a business in the tech sector in 2016 which had similar 20-25% expectations.
So as you say, Mid cap status highly likely but moreover; played correctly future revenues from acquisitions would add to our long term profit position and subsequently materially improving our outlook and market cap.
Has to bode well for us.

7 Virus Variants Found in U.S. Carrying the Same Mutation
Scientists don’t know yet whether the mutation makes the variants more contagious, but they are concerned that it might
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/14/health/coronavirus-variants-evolution.html
As Americans anxiously watch variants first identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa spread in the United States, scientists are finding a number of new variants that originated here. More concerning, many of these variants seem to be evolving in the same direction — potentially becoming contagious threats of their own.

US Market will be significant for the business this year.
Our consolidated UK position with product validations secured places us beautifully to increase our traction stateside with a proven product range.
Boots on the ground, our man in New York, Black Rock backing, superb distribution network, its all adding up for a significant scale up of revenues from this region.
US distributors already moving our SNPsig kits to pick up multi variants.
https://attogene.com/shop/snpsig-sars-cov-2-voc-identification-kits/

Just getting interesting now for the next phase of growth

VanV - The position now though is significantly stronger as they have a massive distribution network they can immediately plug into. I guess I just don't want us sitting on a cash pile north of 443m by 2024 without it being put to significant expansion, albeit a nice problem to have :)
Take Care

Bioinformatics is certainly the way forward and would add yet more strength to the Novacyt stable for sure. I was looking at possible targets in this field. Most are University spin outs.

Tay was looking along the theme of acquisitions from the perspective of adding spin outs, relatively low cost to bolt on and at the same time create massive added value, definitely merits in this approach for sure. However, I am kind of hoping that the next acquisition will be something with more substance.

I was also thinking from the perspective of what would i advise the board if i was NED? and i just can't get away from the fact that i would probably be suggesting looking for something a) Stateside b) with a NASDAQ listing we could reverse into c) with UK support. But i guess I also have a natural bias towards moving us off the awful French index and crushing having to update in two languages and fit with two lots of regulations which i think is wasted energy??

One such company that would fit that profile perfectly is CHEMBIO DIAGNOSTICS INC (CEMI)
https://chembio.com/
Nice set of products in other other diagnostics areas including Tropical, Respiratory, Veterinary fields which with our distribution network and capabilities to advance could really add value PLUS
Local UK relationship with Luas Diagnostics in Guildford.
https://www.luasdiagnostics.com/products/

Its market value is $150m. They could probably acquire for less than $200m ie £140m so we could buy outright cash/ debt or cash / shares split

As i say probably 2 + 2 = 22 but its this sort of bold acquisition I would like to see them make as a next step. Something to really advance credibility stateside as a fully inclusive worldwide diagnostics group and create some real market noise.

GLA

@troublesome
Very true, but on a very positive note it does at least confirm that in a week where we have reported 15 million vaccinations in the UK (highest position) at the same time the number of tests carried out under track and trace is also at its highest.
Anyone believing the myth that vaccines will eradicate testing has been well and truly busted.
Replicate same for rest of world....

More than 3 million people were tested by NHS Test and Trace this reporting week, the highest number ever in a single week.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/a-record-3-million-people-tested-by-nhs-test-and-trace-this-reporting-week

Also comment in FT suggesting £43 bn being invested in testing, I don’t have link

@Deas999
You are correct that Graham has not yet given us an "Operational Update" yet and I still consider that this is due to any contract decisions being considered regarding phase two. We should see something soon.

Likewise, as you say, the LAMP test product roll out is due to be confirmed this quarter, this will be a superb bolt-on to the Q machine increasing its use for best of both worlds (rapid and detailed testing) I am personally VERY excited about this addition. It will further increase revenues which can only be a good thing.

Then as you say the Anitibody LFT release, I have no idea on this, interested to see what they can come up with? All expected to be confirmed very shortly.

GLA

@VanV
I wasn't aware of other comments nor read posts removed, tensions were high and I'm painted as the Villain. It's how it is. But for me the whole point of a stock BB is to discuss the company and its SP and potential as an investment. People have different investment strategies, i am not naive nor blind to that as some clearly are. I have been around a good while.

I am only interested in where the SP goes from TODAY nothing else. If i can add value here i will try to do so. If people want to block me they can. If new investors come here to find out what's going on they want to see a stock discussion not a shrine of posters paying homage to someone who has stopped posting its ridiculous frankly.

Disclaimer: Desperately trying not to be considered as Ramping nor do I wish to patronise anyone by pointing out business logic you may already know, so please ignore / block as you see fit:

Novacyt in the 2020 year delivered in the region of 6 to 7% sales Stateside, so call it 20 million of export in round figures.
USA market has sales potential of more than 5 times our Home market.

Canada has a population of about 38m which is obviously less than the UK 68m, but I consider its market potential similar to the UK namely because to put it Frank Canada is well and truly struggling currently and it needs support.

I have first hand experience of trying to scale a business and I can tell you that, in the vast majority of cases you need to consolidate your position in the UK and be PROVEN before you can attack the USA and Canada Markets successfully.

Novacyt have Proven technology. Further Promate has been validated and being rolled out in the NHS. Obviously further DHSC contracts would be a boost and likely however that validation is enough for it now to be considered as PROVEN.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957995/TVG_Report-PROmate.pdf

We recently had the exec appointment in New York and Black Rock VC suddenly taking an interest in January. We now have boots on the ground stateside. Plus, an expanding network into the USA to get our products out there. Then the icing on the cake the release of SNGsig which is now available stateside: -
https://attogene.com/shop/snpsig-sars-cov-2-voc-identification-kits/

I genuinely think it is a matter of time before we get a left of field major order stateside, it just would not surprise me in the slightest. Certainly, I believe we can expect significantly increased sales from this region because everything is lining up that way.

Finally, the recent improvements in PR are just fantastic. At last, our GM is actually “Banging the Drum” VanV and taking interviews. So, he should. The world needs to know how great Novacyt are and why it should sit at top table.

I continue to remain bullish as you would expect :)
GLA

Porks's

@VanV
Its all good, we share the same objectives, i value your posts, for me its about seeing the market cap correctly relate to the business. sooner we get a re-rate the better frankly, will put a heck of a lot of shareholders at ease.
Take care

CNBC Report out:-
“The new variant has swept the country and it’s going to sweep the world, in all probability,” said Sharon Pea****, director of the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/uk-coronavirus-variant-on-course-to-sweep-the-world-geneticist-says.html
"LONDON — A variant of the coronavirus that emerged in the U.K. and has now been identified in over 80 countries could become the dominant form of the virus worldwide"

Incidentally, it's Sharon Pea**** that is also speaker at the NovaTalk event on the 26th February

The business plan was clear that a "number" of acquisitions would be made to strengthen future revenues where they could also add value.

I did expect them to close something in the last quarter to be honest, i don't know if they couldn't find anything suitable or if they were not able to complete on something but i would be surprised if we get to the end of March and a deal of some kind hasn't been completed.

However, the one challenge they face is the low market cap, especially if they are having to pay full market rate for something else that may be considered high priced in relation to their own value. Tay did suggest they could go after a new innovation or something they could plug into own network and whilst this could work, what we really want is somethin that is going to add a decent chunk of ongoing long term revenues.

The business is out there and they are currently building one heck of a war chest whilst the continue the search that's for sure.

@Stan6414

Not quite sure why you have joined LSE today with your first post to pay homage to Shaun and criticise me at the same time. Most odd, anyhow; -

1. Shaun confirmed he was selling his shares in Novacyt to enjoy his retirement. His timeline was March. So, he was leaving this board and closing his position in the next few weeks anyhow.

2. You can disagree with my price targets, that is perfectly fine. Shaun’s was under both broker forecasts. That was his call. if
you prefer that view that is fine. He considered my target as unrealistic which again is perfectly fine. Only time will tell IF Novacyt reaches my target or if it struggles to ever break £ 10 again. I think it can but, that's my OWN view.

3. NEVER follow anyone blindly or take messages on chat billboards as facts. You must ALWAYs Do your own research – its essential.

4. You do not actually know these posters; you do not know how anyone is trading behind the scenes. Therefore, you need to make your own decisions. This is essential.

I remain bullish and if I can post information that is helpful I will. My bias is to see the SP climb, I make no apology for that. I am not interested in making friends, I have plenty of those in the real world. I am only interested in the share price reaching my targets. You can filter my posts if you prefer – not a problem.

If Shaun wants to return and post here, he is more than welcome to. It is an open forum but no one poster here is bigger than the company in which we invest. It was his decision and his alone to leave a couple of weeks earlier.

Meanwhile, I have a portfolio of 10 individual shares currently and some additional “punts”, I research all of them in detail. I am in my 50s and have been in the markets for over 20 years. I make entirely my own investment decisions and make my own calls.

I have no idea who you are, nor do i care but i would rather the post be "on topic" regarding the company we are investing in than about trivia, this is just a distraction.

GLA

@OakK
This won't change anything whatsoever but I mentioned a couple of days ago:-
My brother-in-law is currently in hospital critical with Covid in a very serious condition. He is a delivery driver. He felt rough whilst out on deliveries and later went home. He had been tested with an LFT negative two days earlier.

I'm no fan of LFTs used in the way we used them in Moonshot but this kind of just endorses my position. I also feel for Julie who now also has Covid but is isolating at home. I will likely have another cat to look after if she goes in.

During his deliveries he came into contact with numerous people, he is highly contagious

Now admittedly you might argue that on the day of the LFT test his "viral load" was not high and it built over the hours that followed, this is what the government would say but he can still infect people!!

Now imagine if his job was in a food processing plant, they would need to close and deep clean, or worse he worked in a care home.

I believe that the government are prepared to take more risks once they can get vaccination numbers higher. The key to this
is for Novacyt to release a rapid test that can run alongside detailed PCR and my gut feeling is that the LAMP test they are working on could be just that thing??? really hope so.

For me, using an LFT is the same as me flipping a coin but i just don't rate especially in the way the UK is using them them, which is not what they were designed for, so have a natural bias.

Pork's

@Hopeful32

It is coming together beautifully behind the scenes imo.

Fact Is that whichever way you cut it, an LFT has its uses but its not in the same league. It will not tell you what variant you have, it will not detect some at all, heck its accuracy levels are diabolical, and we need to know exactly what we are dealing with here.

What Novacyt are doing is ahead of the curve. They are on the advisory panels and are being viewed as an expert Oracle in this space. PR is now also on the up following our feedback.

But the main thing is that the technology is in use and test numbers increasing following the Promate roll out, its now proven and I remain greatly confident the DHSC P2 will come through, it would be idiotic for it not to. We are talking best in class here, it is essential.

Meanwhile, we are supplying 130 markets. Just take stateside alone; we go on about the UK market, but we did about 7% USA export c21m last FY. We have a 66m population UK, stateside its what 330m more than 5 times our size, Canada is 38m the world stage is just huge. We are sure to make a big impact there especially with the new appointed personnel in New York.

We also have the new products to launch shortly and acquisitions to further add to revenues.

Frankly, I am more positive than ever about this business. Yes, we have had a kicking with the SP recently, yes vaccine news has had a big impact, but the diagnostics industry is being bedded down and it’s here to stay.

Novacyt’s forward position is EXTRAORDINARILY strong and the SP is not fully recognising this, we are still materially undervalued but that will change and its just a matter of time.

Good things come to those that wait……its hard to remain positive with so much negativity about when the SP falls but the more research you do the more you realise what a fantastic business this is. It’s history in the making as I keep saying, its about to get interesting…

Stick with it

@Poidster
I share similar concerns.

What I found significantly shocking was that BoJo on last nights Covid update stood on the podium and to precise effectively said: -

“Bluster, bluster, bumble, bumble, we are getting right on top of this virus with a Combination of vaccination and using lateral flow tests to get businesses back open”.

When questioned that the LFT had accuracy level issues he said: -

“Bluster, Bluster, more bumble, the Lateral Flow picks up if you have covid, it picks up where there is a high viral load, and these are the people that are the most infectious. If it is a negative test, that’s not to be taken that you haven’t got covid but its very good to identify most infectious cases so its part of our plan”.

When variants were mentioned, little comment was mentioned other than the “Variants of concern” comment.
So, in other words ok for a business to use LFT to test the workforce to get them back open.

Well tell that to the first business that relies on an LFT and just one slips through that has Covid and infects others, not to mention results in closure of the entire premises, a deep clean and sterilisation of everything before they can re-open.

I think that Bojo genuinely believes the vaccine is the golden bullet but like you I believe its ineffective against certain variants. If it were why would the main vaccines companies be going away to redesign the vaccine for new variants?

My personal feeling is that at absolute best this will be like the Flu vaccine and need changing every year to keep up.

Meanwhile, we will need to continue proper testing to correctly identify what the variant is that we are dealing with. This is not going away, we must learn to live with it.

Pork’s

“The primary challenge for COVID-19 diagnostics companies is ensuring their products continue to accurately test for the virus, regardless of the variant, and to innovate at the challenging pace required to remain clinically relevant,” Graham Mullis, CEO of Novacyt SA, told BioWorld
https://www.bioworld.com/articles/503479-covid-19-test-makers-are-adapting-for-variants

Interesting article regarding how testing companies are trying to adapt to keep up with pace. Fantastic to start seeing more PR contribution and more confirmation that Novacyt are leading the way..

@Poidster
For a new poster here you are an absolute breath of fresh air.
Agree 100% on your views of this BB and all your reasons for investment, Invest in great businesses that you believe in
Good luck to you and thanks again for sharing your thoughts
Take care now
Porks