Member Info for Porky9

I have no concerns what so ever regarding todays mark down, sure irritating as hell if you need instant cash but if you can ride it out you will be VERY well rewarded and if you are in a position to TOP UP even better.

I know for a fact that the business is doing incredibly well, in fact its struggling to meet demand and therefore the H1 is going to be incredible imo. The USA markets, Japan, Canada are in high demand, fantastic work being carried out in sequencing to to keep us ahead of Variants and the live talk on Friday will provide more detail in this regard.

I would be more concerned it we were a hype stock of no substance but we are not, we have solid foundations following a great 2020. This FY even in a absolute worse case scenario we are on track to exceed EBITDA 173m this year and cash reserves of 278m rising to 442m by 2024.

Market cap currently during this raid 465m, yeah right....... whatever

My only concern if i'm totally honest is we could get hit with a hostile takeover, someone is sure to try. The size of this business now in real terms, its reach and its position on the world stage, its a prize asset for sure.

GLA

Remember why you invest here
Looks like a number of stocks being shaken down
This will bounce back
GLA

Not sure why the board is attracting subtle de-ramps such as " if it falls by a another x, i would buy" the market cap is now at serious discount to its fundamentals. But i know some like to try and short and have ulterior motives in posting here. The stock has suffered a fair amount of posts recently in this direction.

The ii continue to increase their holdings and this has escaped a fair few private investors.

This is not some "hype" stock that is not delivering results, as i write they will have added yet more cash reserves. The sequencing event is on Friday and this will raise our profile further. I wouldn't want to be short here.

We are awaiting updates on a number of aspects which are now due. The moment these updates land we will see a serious change of share price direction which is well overdue.

Testing volumes are currently at their highest and these surge testing areas are just adding to the volumes. Our H1 results will be ahead of expectations for sure.

I remain very confident here, its one of the few businesses actually delivering results, it needs to shout more about it granted but they are still delivering higher levels of EBITDA than ASOS and that has to be reflected in the SP at some point.

Finally, with the market cap this low to fundamentals we are at serious risk of a takeover especially with the ongoing requirement for whole genome sequencing to pick up new variants and surge testing .

GLA

Hi VanV
Would you be so kind as to stop posting great long posts, containing historic messages, to justify "he said , she said" seriously, nobody is interested. its futile and you are better than this. You are a great researcher, Let it go. Thanks.
Lets get the board back on topic.
Take care
Porks

Another location gone into Surge Testing
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/surge-testing-to-be-deployed-in-new-addington-croydon
Additional testing and genomic sequencing is being deployed to targeted areas within the CR0 postcode in New Addington, Croydon.

When it comes down to identifying variants and completely taking control every time they fall back on the gold standard. It is the only way forward.

After three Covid tests in secondary school and one home test, there will be twice-weekly tests carried out by parents and carers at home. The tests are voluntary and will operate "based on trust", officials said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56153751

This has to be the worst possible plan known to man;-
1. Take up Rate of Teenagers doing the test will be low
2. Some either won't bother to swab correctly or just plain stick the swob in the tube without even doing the test
3. When they get a negative result they will feel invincible and likely not to follow safe code
4. Who is going to put the liquid on the strip? the school, in which case cross contamination risks
5. No data on effectiveness in this setting - moonshot proved a waste of time.
6.IMO based on what we know effectiveness if we are lucky will be less than 35%

It kind of feels like we are doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome?

Is this just me? I admit I'm biased against LFTs being used in this way but i genuinely don't get it? How can this possibly work?

@gggg21
Fully on the same page but i just find it frustrating as hell. Its like government want to avoid the scientific evidence at every turn. There has been a lot of fuss and noise made these last few days following the comments made in the press but at the current time no actual awards of any level over any period have actually been made.

Also agree the evidence of Deek's really spells out the dangers.
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1363475373443452930

@mburns70
We don't know the exact splits yet until the full year break down is published in a few weeks time. I suspect that the ROW sales could well be higher than the estimated UK figures because its now apparent that the P1 of DHSC was delayed. At the H1 we were looking at very rough approximate:-
Europe - 79%
Africa - 4%
Asia - Pacific Region - 5%
America - 6%
Middle East - 6%
However, since the H1 the distribution network has increased further. In addition, we have boots on the ground in the USA and our man now in New York has serious connections, so i see this as being a likely major growth area.

Gut feeling, from very rough research is that the split imo will likely be closer to a 60/40 split Europe/ROW

Every loser wins;
Nick Berry

@donnodertrader
I don't mind, if Bing007 wants to call me an idiot that's his prerogative

I feel as a shareholder and i have a fairly substantial holding here, i have a right to ask certain questions on trading in the business. I don't want to wait until the AGM to raise these issues especially if its something i feel the BOD should consider now that will help bolster SH confidence.

So far communication to the wider market has been diabolical, we all know that. However, i have been able to email Graham and Mandy in the past and they have previously replied.

Now it looks like everything is going vi the PR agency. I suspect that in view of recent events volume has probably been high hence the move?

Eitherway, i see it as a positive

In every engagement, FTI Consulting aims to achieve six critical objectives:

Protect the brand, valuation and reputation of the company or organization
Demonstrate command of a situation through active communications
Ensure accurate representation of facts in the media and by other third parties
Engage with stakeholders to maintain credibility and strengthen relationships
Reduce legal and/or political consequences
Ensure business continuity

I do see this as a very positive step.
The firm will have the appropriate contacts with worldwide media organisations. They can help avoid "Car Crash" statements like the forward statement blunder in the last TU and hopefully do more to help get the right messages out into the public domain.

This move could shortly do something positive for the SP, its certainly got to help.

Interesting
Not sure what this means exactly but an email I sent to Graham on an Investor relations issue has just come back with the following message:-
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
Your email has been forwarded to our communications team at Novacyt.group@fticonsulting.com.
Due to the large amount of interest in the company at this time, we cannot respond to all individual shareholder queries. Please see our website on www.novacyt.com for further information about the company. Any price sensitive information will be released via RNS in the usual way.
................................................

Looks like PR is now being dealt with by a PR agency???
See:
https://www.fticonsulting-emea.com/services/strategic-communications/ma-crisis-communications-and-special-situations

I know, its gone beyond a joke.
At the current rate Novacyt will soon be doing BOGOF offers , its pathetic.

Due to no updates and the fickleness in the market this now has HOSTILE BID written all over it. It will have 278m in the bank this year, an established network supplying 130 markets, 550 products and an EBITDA north of 173m and leading the world on sequencing.

Seriously this has to be a target at this ridiculously cheap level.

This is what most here suspected.
Its clear we are still supplying DHSC in some format as we know from various NHS staff that they are using the testing equipment and PROmate despite the news blackout.

Personally, i'm still confident of a P2 as i believe it would be madness not to bolster the NHS with the resources it needs especially in the event of outbreaks of further variants - we need to stay right on top of this.

My gut feeling is that I think we will know more in the coming days. I certainly wouldn't want to be short here that's for sure. The SP could turn in an instant.

@Levincoolpal
Shaun is more than welcome to post here ANYTIME he likes and he knows that. Life is far to short for grudges, heck with Covid at the moment we have far bigger issues. We have all lost family or friends or know someone who has.

Lets keep this board back to the on topic - This is my own last post off topic now.

@Quickdraw
You are a top draw analyst you clearly know what you are talking about. I also respect how painful it is to see Novacyts share price so battered and its market cap so low despite its truly world class credentials. I equally share your passion for this business.

The facts as you know are that:

Novacyt will deliver north of 173m EBITDA this year and a cash pile of 278m for acquisitions and this is on the back of a great profitable 2020 year. Our Market Cap £ 504 m

AVCT has not released an approved product yet. It has not delivered any goods, heck it does not even manufacture any goods. Its revenues will come from royalties on future sales of an unknown amount over an unknown period. It lost £15m last year and has a market cap of £ 515 m. The SP is built 100% on a house of cards, pure HYPE and it is going to need to deliver an EXTREMELY high volume of royalties to make that market cap up that is for sure BUT let investors find that out for themselves.

My advice would be NOT to post on AVCT board let them get on with it. Stop the activity.

Note: In 2001 there was an Insurance company called Independent. I had inside knowledge of this company. I knew it had significant asbestos claims with undervalued reserves. The directors of this business and PI were ramping the stock left right and centre and the SP was rising, they were selling (bit like ODX). I was so passionate in trying to stop people losing money I tried to reach out to shareholders on Motley Fool and ADVFN and I was immediately shot down as a de-ramper, they were having none of it. I did my level best to highlight the issues, but it was futile. No one thanked me for it, I just got abused for it, completely wasted energy. The company later collapsed, and investors lost the lot, nobody apologised either.

@VanV
I know you are passionate about AVCT and heck as I said yesterday being a Novacyt shareholder is not a mutually exclusive arrangement.

You are a terrific guy and have made some great posts here, but this rift must stop.

The last two days of constant posting he said she said has really taken its toll on shareholders here. Its just not worth it Van. Its damaging your credibility and you do not need to do it.

Please rise above it, ignore these posts, and get back to being the great analyst you are. You do not need to stoop this low. Let us get the debate back onto Novacyt we have an especially important discussion on sequencing out on Friday and an absolute ton of stuff about to be updated on, so let us focus on the positives here.

From my perspective I do not want to read the words Avacta or Sovereign on this board again, I am sure many others here feel the same.

Take care now.

Pork’s

How about using this stock BB to discuss Novacyt

Not using it to ramp an already over hyped stock AVCT that now has a bigger market cap than use yet hasn’t even got an approved test for the next few months let alone proved it has secured ANY orders or made even £1 in profit

They need to keep hyping it as it’s currently built on a house of cards - don’t give it anymore air time. And ignore threads titled Avacta - go to that board if you want to discuss that stock

How about we just discuss Novacyt on this board, what Novacyt are doing, the great work they are doing with Cog-uk and why they represent a sound investment.

From this moment the words AVCT and Soverien not mentioned on this board because frankly for a business that has done zero sales, let alone profit, to now have a market cap bigger than us here clearly proves that constantly talking about it is helping Hype the price even higher - maybe that’s been the objective?

Why anyone would want to sell Novacyt that continues to deliver, in favour of AVCT that has delivered nothing but Hype, it doesn’t even have a bloody approved test yet let alone got a signed order OR so much as delivered one product or proved it can make a profit on any order is totally beyond me but that’s the market for you.

I believe a business built on hype will end in misery and fundamentals Will ultimately shine through. In the meantime let’s not give it anymore air time

Good luck holders here

Tensions are always high on this BB when our SP suffers and many aspects still remain unknown.
Lets hope we can return back on topic soon

With Testing figures still higher than ever, not to mention all the door to door Surge PCR testing taking place its looking highly likely that revenues in the current year may well eclipse that of 2020.
It would not surprise me if the revenues for H1 come in higher than the H2 for 2020

Even on a conservative basis as we know this FY will deliver over 173m EBITDA and a war chest of Cash for acquisitions exceeding 278m and yet our market cap is a mere 525m. Removing cash that's a PE less than X2. Ridiculously cheap.
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SP-Angel-Update-04.02.2021.pdf

I wish all holders old and new good fortune. So much more to come here, its only just started and a re-rate has to come soon. Once we get lift off in the share price, the world and its uncle will want to buy shares in NCYT and sentiment on this board will change quicker than the tide.

GLA

Absolutely essential that we keep on top of these Variants
https://twitter.com/PrimerdesignLtd/status/1363052779326091264
Another two found in the Philippines to add to the list.

Novacyt supporting Genomics UK Consortium (cog-uk) is essential work
Sequencing is the way forward and our success with vaccines and vaccine updates totally depends on this work
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1363249324268933122/photo/2

Its fantastic that Novacyt are at the forefront
https://twitter.com/PrimerdesignLtd/status/1362708514171412480
Looking forward to talk on Friday, if you have time available it should be worth looking in:-
https://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/18699/469081
GLA