Member Info for Porky9

@Quickdraw18
Your post perfectly illustrates that visitors don't read what is in front of them.... amazing.
It's why at times on here i feel like i'm platting fog....

Incidentally, it was a great article on Insider. I appreciate the work that goes into that website. It's an absolute lifeline for information especially with the Radio silence from the company. The earlier articles where the SP is compared to that of peers is very encouraging not to mention market cap comparisons.

I remain bullish but, as you know, the SP here has been absolutely hammered. As a result it creates a vicious circle of negativity that the vultures feed off. We need some positivity now.

I'm just hoping the phase two or some large stateside deal lands because frankly we need it. Anything further that is issued on Insider also helps the awareness, appreciate all your efforts
Take care
Porks

We can assume that that the broker forecasts will be fairly accurate as they were close to the actual for the full year. The new forecast from S P Angel is 270m which they should exceed.

In addition, we know that the estimates do not include DHSC as its still in negotiation and that is why the forward statement was conservative (being polite)

Further, based on the TU we also know that the extension to P1 was still in negotiation (£100m)

We have seen the confirmation that PROmate which started rolling out in Jan has now been fully validated and we know from feedback that its working brilliantly. We also know that Variants are causing significant concern. As such I think we are all coming to the fast conclusion that P2 is now highly likely, the NHS need to know exactly what they are dealing with and they need the infrastructure in the event of further outbreaks. No Brainer.

So, if extended:-

On the assumption that 300 machines are £ 150m + £ 100m support/ products we can assume that 700 machines would be in the region of circa £ 585m and probably more with further services and that is on a VERY conservative basis, probably more like £ 2bn.

So, a very quick calculation on the assumption we secure the business, using the conservative figures would boost our 2021 revenues. £ 270m + £ 100m + £585m = £ 955m - Just shy of £ 1 bn annual revenues.

Match that revenue using our closing share price tonight and the same pathetically low valuation matrix we are looking at an SP of £ 26.45 and that is without a proper re-rating of the valuation and using my VERY conservative figures, could be much higher. We will certainly reach mid cap status.

Last year Numis said Blue Sky valuation was £ 34 and P2 would be the gamechanger. Let us hope when the road map is out this becomes the reality. Some nice sized stateside contracts on top and my £ 54 short term target could still be a reality yet…. I remain very positive.

On thing is certain, at this ludicrously oversold SP level, we are still materially undervalued and it is a screaming Red Hot buy now that is for sure.

GLA

Wren Healthcare do a detailed Antibody test but its not a rapid test.
Abingdon Health have one Rapid Antibody test which government contract was pulled on.
I have seen them for sale as a private test for about £ 30
https://www.testingforall.org/individuals/
Roche has a home test kit

I guess it comes down to exactly what Novacyt can deliver and its accuracy level but It could be an additional revenue line especially for those that have had the vaccine and a few months later want to check their antibody protection levels?. I can see that being popular, But its a different market and it brings us back to product viability, its more of a high volume/ low margin product but a bolt on all the same.

Meanwhile, i think Novacyt could do more damage with a quality rapid LAMP test, really interesting to see what this new innovation will be like and it marries perfectly with the Gensig, best of both worlds, fantastic

Still all in play here frankly...

GLA

Very Interesting - https://geneme.uk/
And the YOTI tech backing
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08998951
21m loss but ready to go could be easy offset against Novacyts profits.
A Network into 130 markets ... Novacyt could add significant value
I'm fast coming round to ggg21s thought process
GLA

@Surfie1961
You haven't give it enough time yet. Another week and the situation could be totally different. SH are really fickle.

IF P2 lands or a large stateside contract or some decent acquisition that will add to longer term revenues the SP would absolutely fly and my £ 54 target for H1 results not looking so daft then.....

The current SP is an absolute farce; think about it.
This years forecast EBITDA 173m. IF no large contracts and IF testing falls totally on its ars@ they will still break 65m EBITDA and have a cash war chest of 443m by 24 FY.
The market cap today is 527m
If this isn't a ridiculously undervalued asset i don't know what is?

Yes, the market buys on sentiment, i totally get it but at some point the fundamentals have to shine through. This business has mid cap written all over it. It is likely to be the TOP stock on the AIM market this year. It delivered more Profit than ASOS.

I know we are all hurting at the moment and PR needs improving but its solid foundations they are building, one heck of a worldwide network and the SP will get there.

I remain confident in this business despite the SP crash

Interesting article on Acquisition Premium
https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/premiums-in-ma/

Many recent deals i have seen on "Hot Property" are at 35-45% closing premium. So based on todays diabolical SP close of £7.48 so call it £ 11 max take out.

Of course that assumes only one party interested and no other , it assumes the board would accept it and and Graham holds shares himself over £ 9 so would expect he would want a good premium on his own stock. I would expect £ 15 minimum in an exclusive.

One thing is certain, with the SP this low, it would be an absolute no brainer to launch a smash and grab heck, even Private equity are probably considering a raid? The business will have 442m cash pile by FY 2024 ridiculous...

@bradus1
Kaeren is an experienced investor and share analyst so have a bit of bloody respect.
We are all in pain here with the SP down this low, i totally get it.
However, we do need patience more than ever, if its too hot in the kitchen, get out and sell your holding its that simple.

Oh and it was me, 100% me, nobody else, totally on my own that is holding a £ 54 short term target and £ 100 long term. This is history in the making but just remember this, its a business being built here and whilst investors want returns yesterday and this is just the start, it will take time.
I hope like everyone else we have an operational update soon, i have asked GM to consider this, i agree we need something, shareholders are having a rough time as its stands but i still believe it will get better very soon.
GLA

@gggg21
Thanks, maybe my link to an interesting article will help join any dots...

Incidently, a great article reconfirming what we already know:-
"Of those recently infected people who are asymptomatic, up to half of them will wrongly test negative with an antigen test, which could lead them unknowingly infect loved ones or other members of the public"
https://geneme.uk/antigen-tests-dont-perform-well-as-a-mass-testing-solution/

We have our own LAMP about to be launched but I'm in total agreement that an acquisition of one already approved might be the quickest route to market especially via Novacyts established network. Optigene is the other one.

@VanV
Trust me on this, I would be happy to see ANY acquisition at the moment. At the end of this current FY they will have a cash pile war chest north of 278m
It is not healthy to have that level of cash just sitting there and not being deployed - I want to see acquisitions. If not it will be Novacyt that will become the prey.
The SP is a joke in relation to its fundamentals

@SteveV
Totally agree with you
As we have stated, GM is business a solid business based on delivering results not hype and market sentiment will ultimately catch up with the fundamentals.

It comes to something when the market cap of Novacyt is a mere £ 547m , its on track for an EBITDA of 172m, and will have cash at bank of 278m at the end of this FY. Its a proven business.

Meanwhile, AVCT has a market cap of £ 445 m, yet it hasn't delivered a bean, its all hype. In its last FY they delivered 5 m of revenue and a 15m loss. they need to show the colour of some contracts now.

But as we know this is a sentiment driven market clearly proven, bash the proven and reward the hype.

@VanV
I appreciate that you have come over all excited tonight that LFTs are going to be the next greatest thing to sliced bread but whilst i agree that investors buy on sentiment, i would kindly point out that neither ODX, GDR or your favoured AVCT that you champion have actually any proven history in sales, scale or have delivered anything what so ever and none have delivered a profit. The SP is completely 100% propped up on HYPE of its potential.

All the directors and board of ODX recently sold shares and AVCT is like a never ending revolving door of director resignations with a massive history of opened and closed companies registered at companies house. If they do land a contract, they need to a) deliver the goods and b) at a margin that can make some profit - both of these factors are still unknown. For all you know the government could award another 20 bn contract to the chinese!!! and buy more crap from Innova.??

But for every positive test on an LFT it will likely need confirming on a PCR so its a win win as far as i'm concerned. We are not competing with LFTs its a different test.

Lets see what happens, I hope you get the bounce you want on AVCT. I won't be buying the stock myself without proof of orders, IF an RNS lands and it says AVCT have secured a contract of X price over Y period and I can work out what the margin might look like to calculate the SP my view could change but until then its total speculation.

My earlier post about LFTs i think did need clarifying and that's because people not following this stock so closely may wonder why Novacyt are releasing an LFT this quarter and not appreciate its a totally different kind of test.

Novacyt are developing an LFT to detect viral antibodies. ie what antibodies you have in your body to protect you. This is the correct test and use of an LFT.

The LFTs discussed here tonight are VIRAL ANTIGEN tests designed to identify contagious candidates with HIGH viral loads.
Not everyone gets that difference.

I remain confident in Novacyt - They deliver what they say and it would be absolute poetic justice if Phase 2 did land and catch a load of investors out that haven't had the patience to give them the time to complete.

GLA

Thank the lord for that...
https://twitter.com/sharebuyers/status/1361754650693824519

Our interview with Graham Mullis CEO of #NCYT will go live tomorrow. Merci beaucoup for your patience.

We are investors in a sentiment driven market but ultimately sentiment WILL catch up with fundamentals and I absolutely stand by that. Novacyt are leading the market and it is a short matter of time before that is reflected in the SP.

Meanwhile, wild speculation and miss-information surrounding LFTs from the PM and pump and dump merchants on the three stocks in question has not helped one bit and has turned the market into a casino of investors buying on Hype rather than substance.

Forgive this post for those already in the know. For others, I want to explain some key facts: -

The government want a mass rapid test. The LFT is NOT the tool for this purpose. They intend to use the LFT to detect viral antigen. The key words here are a VIRAL ANTIGEN Test. This is the wrong test due to its lack of specificity and sensitivity. The test is not designed for this purpose.

The false logic to back up this disastrous position is that “The test doesn’t confirm that you are truly negative, but it will confirm if you have a “high viral load” in which case you are more infectious, and it will quickly identify that”.

Rather than say this test is only 50% accurate, we are now seeing BS statements from AVCT this morning specifically saying based on 30 samples its was accurate in relation to discovering if you had a viral load of a certain level and ODX this afternoon with a similar fudged statement about accuracy.

But the public does not know any different, does not read what is in front of them and buys the hype.

The fact is these tests can not be relied upon used for this purpose, but the government are prepared to run with them anyway and factor in the “casualty rate” from break out if it gets the economy back working. In fact the PM made some even more absurd comment that the LFT could open up closed venues such as night night clubs, go figure... can you just imagine it... how moronic.

The good news however is that the moment a more accurate rapid antigen test is released, the LFT can be sent to landfill where it rightfully belongs. I believe that Novacyts LAMP test due for release shortly could be that very tool to replace them.

At the backdrop to this, our gold standard tests remain essential as we need to know with accuracy exactly what we are dealing with so this is at least a positive fact amongst the mayhem.

Meanwhile, the LFT that Novacyt are working on is not the same thing. Novacyt are developing an LFT to detect viral antibodies. The key words here are a VIRAL ANTIBODY Test. This is the right test and will support vaccine roll out and identifying what levels of protection you do or do not have. Hopefully an LFT being finally used for its intended purpose.

I want investors to be fully aware of these differences as part of your research as it is Key imo.

Novacyt remain completely one step ahead of the curve. It is a matter of time before the SP reflects that.

Porks

@VanV
Love your comparison to ARB but must politely disagree.

You cannot compare ARB. I carried out significant research into ARB and was in deep at 9p, I focus on undervalued assets, that is my investment style but, I did not get my exit price right and got off the rocket early flight.

My point being my research was because its market cap was undervalued significantly less than its mining revenues. Also, the price of the mined bitcoin was going through the roof which meant that its revenues were even higher, and this was not reflected in its expected results or SP. The AIM market was not valuing it correctly either imo, a bit like us here.

Whilst its SP increased partly due to its massively improved trading results, the catalyst was its move from AIM to NASDAQ. Opening that company to the US market completely changed its fortune, it rocketed because of that move alone.

Would I buy ARB today, never in a million years, but if I were a big fan of bitcoin and thought bitcoin prices will continue to climb, I might think differently. As it stands I don’t have faith in the price of bitcoin. The stock is way, way to speculative for me now to even take a new position as a “punt” at the current level.

Bitcoin at 11,000 USD, it could be back to $3,000 within a week, then again $20,000 next week. It is a casino with a heck of a lot of hype added. In fact I would rather take my chances playing roulette, I fair better than most playing the odds…..

But each to own investment style.

Thanks for posters kind thoughts – none of us are just statistics, most of us know someone now that has that has died from covid, its what we do next that counts from here to change the future. Thanks again. Stay safe.

@donnodertrader
Thx will be sure to tune in

@Hillseeker
Credit where its due, Your post 20.43 was well thought out and brilliant imo. It totally highlights the truly incredible work that Novacyt are doing in relation to whole-genome sequencing.

I think sometimes we miss the bigger picture here; Novacyt are not just helping keeping everyone safe with the best testing technology in the world that can clearly identify exactly what we are dealing with, but also future vaccines development totally depends on it.

Novacyt are clearly in a class of their own. If private investors can't see a winner here well one more fool them..

GLA

Not only are ODX awaiting validation BUT the big elephant in the room as i see it is making manufacture viable. You need a heck of a high volume of LFTs imo to make any decent margin.

I'm really interested to see what Novacyt have planned in this direction, it needs to be a radically different test imo worth paying a premium for but I'm more interested in what they deliver as a LAMP test, this is the game changer i believe, as it dovetails with the Gensiq so once they install they can run both rapid LAMP tests and detailed PCR - pure brilliance.

On the LFT side I just see pricing for them as a race to the bottom, who can make them cheaper and the Chinese are still in the race and can beat us hands down. If the UK wants to buy cheap crap, china is the place to go for it. Let's face it we are practically the only customer anyway, the Americans aren't buying them !!!
Sorry, but we will really struggle to compete in the UK as i see it against the Chinese.

I may also be going mad but It looks like to me, unless this is a rehash? that in addition to that Sure screen 503m order, Innova had a 728m order:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W07/745013583
And that's on top of a 722m order, and two orders for 226m and 153m in Jan - so much for buying British, looks to me that we are still indirectly buying LFTs from china?

There is only one horse to back in this race and its Novacyt. Buy shares in a business that is delivering results with Proven technology and leading the world frankly.

My Brother in Law unfortunately passed away yesterday in his fight with Covid. He was only admitted less than a week ago and will be sadly missed. It just highlights how horrendous this virus is. Odd isn't it how some people get fairly mild effects, others recover but suffer serious long covid issues and others never recover. There is still so much we don't know about this Virus, It's so important we keep on top of it.

I totally agree with all the earlier posts about the importance of sequencing. A worldwide effort where the UK looks to be, and will remain, one of the leaders. The work of Professor Sharon and dedication to detecting and tracking emerging mutations of importance and putting Cog-Uk together is truly incredible, she deserves a Nobel Prize frankly!!!

Anyhow, I have registered for the Event. As it states the event is available for viewing after 5.00am Friday 26th February and that is Stateside LA time zone, as they are -8hrs behind us, does that mean we can stream this event from 9pm on Thursday night i wonder?

Looks like with the exceptional work Novacyt are doing with cog-uk on sequencing, this event will seriously bolster our awareness stateside. As we discussed this weekend, the USA and Canada are huge markets for us outside the UK, I'm still hopeful for something major left of field to land from this region.

GLA

To be confident in your investment you need to Do Your Own Research, but many do not.

We only get frustrated because we have researched and know the differences in the tests out there BUT much of the public do not.

The PM last Thursday went on about how LFTs will be used as part of the plan. I genuinely don’t think he knows the difference. He is talking about something that is proven not be used for mass testing. The rest of the world are not following and the FDA in the USA has outright withdrawn its approval for them.

Then we had the FT saying that three firms were being selected. The SP on those three firms rallied, some investors here switched. None of these businesses had completed any volume of sales; none have made any real profits, and none have scaled a business before even the directors in some of those companies were selling shares on the price rise. The RNS that dropped only confirmed the one company so far ODX was selected if its test past validation. No concrete order for X supply at Y price has been secured as far as I know.

Meanwhile, should a LAMP test or similar rapid test be validated that can be used instead that is more accurate the government will likely switch in a matter of seconds. Therefore, there is some excitement about what Novacyt are about to release. I am personally VERY excited about the Novacyt LAMP test especially because its dovetails with the Gensig delivering best of both worlds.

However, despite the LFT fiasco, the UK needs lab quality tests and so do the rest of the world. Every country wants to know exactly what variant is hitting them and the best way to control it. Novacyt is delivering results with proven products and is helping worldwide.

In the last few days we have panic from government about the Variants and they have carried out door to door tests. Not with LFTs but with Gold standard so they can identify Variants. This is our specialist area.

My_Way made some real good points earlier; points we already know because the information is already here right in front of us BUT people do not read it. This is history in the making. This is possibly the best stock to buy and own right now for a solid Return on Investment.

Further company updates and PR will start flowing and this in turn will improve the confidence. We then might see less Rainbow chasing and more investment in businesses that deliver.

GLA