Member Info for Porky9

PS - I wonder what exactly they were filming three weeks ago???????

@Quickdraw
How are you today?
The board here has gone mental, normally I'm the Pantomime Villain but looks like I'm getting a night off....

The strength of partnership between Novacyt and AZK could really start coming into its own shortly.
* We have the obvious LFT for ANTIBODIES Test due for launch this quarter. This just sits side by side Vaccination demand. Lets face it everyone will want to know their Antibody level.
* The LAMP test which will be an amazing as it will dovetail with the Gensig - Best of both worlds what a master stroke.

And now, possibly left of field the Saliva Test which has been in progress for sometime with AZK behind the scenes. If your rough time line calc is right it could well be something to land anytime soon - now that would take the market by surprise....

Two distributors listed for the Japan region.

Novacyt clearly consolidated their UK position during 2020 but with the network now expanded into 130 countries and the expansion of the distributor network i think ROW sales will really become significant this year. Products are proven and demand remains off the scale.

A lot of us are calling for more contracts from the DHSC which would be a fine thing but if a high percentage of products are withheld to supply that one client, we could miss out on other market sales?.

In this position, it would be logical imo to agree white label deals in certain territories, you may as well license if our own capacity reaches its limits. Its either than or make an acquisition in the target location to have manufacturing localised so we can more effectively feed that territory. The USA is just screaming for support at the moment in one example but there are opportunities everywhere...

I believe its a matter of time before such deals are announced. I remain as ever highly confident in Novacyt's ability to continue to deliver and the SP will follow.
GLA

Testing for COVID-19 could soon face serious difficulties in Japan due to a shortage of materials driven by rising global demand.
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14208729
“Many countries are competing for materials to carry out PCR tests,” said a sales representative with a leading domestic wholesaler. “The difficulty in securing adequate supplies could continue for at least the rest of this year.”
................................................................

NB. We are obsessed with what's going on in our home market but lets not forget we supply 130 countries. If we have excess stock looks like Japan is one market for sure in need of our support.
My gut feeling is that our H1 trading will come in ahead of forecasts with or without any DHSC contract extensions.
GLA

@VanV
Ok, Ok , i submit you are not a massive fan of AVCT..... not
i'm winding you up.

Look, each to their own, you don't need to be exclusive with NCYT you can flirt with other stocks, just don't bring them back to the board here you tart, LOL.

FYI i drew the conclusion because you were bringing them up and you started the LFT thread and kept returning to it that's all. I'm not falling out with you over it, Lets move on and reassess further in a weeks time once all facts are actually known,

Take care
Pork's

I just sent Two Fresh Products a message.

They confirmed on the 5th February they were in final editing stages and couldn't wait to show us what a great company Novacyt are yet three weeks later nothing published. Most odd.

Makes you wonder if this is all leading towards an update on DHSC, perhaps the video contained comments about the work with the DHSC and it cant be released until after formal confirmation. Perhaps wishful thinking....

Just got back in and this BB is has turned just plain silly

Without any contract awards Novacyt are still on track and likely to exceed 173 m EBITDA and cash at bank of 278m in this financial year. lets get some perspective.
Cash at bank at the end of the following FY expected to exceed 386m

If posters want to keep trying to talk the business down even lower than its currently undervalued market cap just go ahead, its totally pointless. If our SP drops much more they may as well give cash back on every share purchase, its gone beyond being ridiculously cheap now.

The only reason AVCT keeps coming up on this BB is because VanV is long on it. Nobody else gives a cr@p, AVCT needs constant hype to justifiy its overly inflated share price. its at approximately the same market cap level as Novacyt yet hasn't even won a bloody order yet let alone been able to prove it can make a profit from an order. That's how ridiculous this whole situation is.

Meanwhile, our stock is traded 70% in france and they probably don't even know that Bojo is even doing an update.

Lets see what orders are actually confirmed and issued (if any yet) and what price values are over what periods. Lets see what they are doing about care homes and the NHS, schools, sequencing for future variants, what's the plan on surge testing, lets see some real facts. Lets see if Novacyt get awarded any contracts or extensions. Everything is just pure speculation at the moment.

@Vegas22
That's because, to be kind to you, he probably thought it the wrong question.

I actually like your question because it perfectly illustrates the perception of the general public, they don't know the differences and it is why the LFT is dangerous. A negative LFT is NOT an endorsement that you are virus free you. Its confirmation that you haven't got a high viral load that day. But put frankly, if you have a high viral load you are likely to be feeling fairly cr@p anyway.

Its actually the broadening asymptomatic testing that we need to carry out.

For me, I don't want to sit on a plane next to anyone with a negative LFT result, as i may as well flip a coin heads they are contagious tails they are not. In fact, i don't want to sit ANYWHERE next to someone with a negative LFT result at all.

Having recently lost my brother in law i have real life experience of someone who had a negative LFT result at work two days earlier before being taken into hospital. This is not a unique situation, its fairly common.

@Kaeren
There is no logic to it that's why, its a plan based on ignoring scientific advice, you couldn't make it up.

The false logic i think is that if we can get the bulk of the UK vaccinated then test everyone with cheap LFTs the percentage chances of picking up Covid will reduce and those that get it will be simply collateral damage. If he can get the collateral damage numbers down to say under 50,000 a year (Flu is normally 25-30,000 a year) he will consider it a result.

What he is ignoring is that it is the asymptomatic testing that we need to broaden if we are to get top of this virus. The vaccine will not stop us getting Covid just reduce our chances of being seriously ill but moreover we need to stay on top of new variants arriving that the vaccine doesn't protect against or completely avoid antibodies hence, why you can catch covid twice.

As you say Kaeren, once everyone starts mixing again that's when the trouble starts.

A much tighter control plan is required and imo that involves nationwide surge testing on a regular basis coupled with the highest possible vaccination level we can achieve until control restored.

The South African B.1.351 variant of which we now have 235 known cases of in the UK, the two brazil variants of which we have 31 known cases of in the UK, the California variant of which we have 7 cases in the UK and the new Finland variant and this new USA/UK merged variants which haven't reached us (yet) ALL escape antibodies from other variants and vaccines.
This is VERY concerning.

Sorry but if i was BOJO rather than playing with cheap LFTs i would strengthen border control and introduce "vaccine and PCR clear Passports" entry and then SURGE test EVERY part of the UK with PCR tests so we have total control. You want to go to the PUB or the cinema, fine but show me your Vaccination and PCR confirmed test on your mobile phone. If you cant do that you stay at home.

@Bloodshot
Do you know where they were identified exactly and how many cases?

The recent two South Africa and this new one in Finland are very nasty. We do not know for sure how much protection the vaccine gives either. The one in Finland is alleged to be VERY difficult to identify which creates specific challenges with low grade tests. This is where Novacyt are really coming into their own.

She is doing simply incredible work with the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium.
It's fantastic that Novact are playing a major part.
Essential work to keep us safe
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1363249324268933122

Meanwhile we need to keep this new SA variant contained.
235 cases in the UK and rising hence the desperate need for specific location targeted surge testing
Very Concerning
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1363253558846627841

@gggg21
"Tricky. Business wise though with all these you need to remember the margins. Avcta for instance do not manufacture. They own the ip so will get the rights a big royalty if they are approved of course. They are being validated still. Odx are just an excess manufacture with government loaned equipment. So again how much margin will they be getting. Novacyt own both ip and manufacturing. Plus the overall “ticket” is far bigger."
.........................................................................................................................................................................................
Best post so far whilst also trying to avoid subtle de-ramps here

Without doubt its looking highly likely BOJO is going to champion LFTs come what may. I still feel its a mitigating disaster using a test better suited for detecting Antibodies than using LFTs for testing for Antigens, due to the high percentage of false negatives, but no point in fighting it have to assume DHSC will get it right.

Your point on margins though is absolutely spot on. LFTs are a high volume low margin product. Our share price here has been absolutely hammered yet the business continues to deliver great results. We have seen how our SP has tanked on delivering millions in bottom line profits!

Meanwhile, AVCT and ODX are yet to prove they can make any profits, yet have a really meaty market cap built on pure fresh air and "potential" I think once the landscape is known for sure and we know exactly what orders are going where and at what values over what time period and how that might equate to bottom line profit we can make better informed choices.

What is interesting however is that we are totally absorbed with the UK market. Stateside the FDA have not approved ANY LFT for Testing, in fact ODX pulled their application when the others were being kicked out. Perhaps that's why NCYT are doing the stateside broadcast on sequencing to try and gain greater acceptance and awareness stateside. Meanwhile, 70% of our stock is traded in France, do they even know BOJO is talking to us on Monday? Do then even care? Its the colour of contracts we all need to see now.

Interesting how the next couple of weeks go for sure
GLA

https://mobile.twitter.com/BlackbirdInvest/status/1363077582342811648/photo/1

This is one the most frustrating aspects of thisBoard is newbies turning up that don’t hold the stock but happy to provide subtle miss information.

Our issue is that jo public hears ‘Test” and doesn’t know the difference between an LFT or a PCR test. Frankly LFTs should NEVER be used as a mass testing Antigen test. Also, PCR testing based on last weeks data is at its highest ever so clearly if you do have a positive LFT most are being checked via PCR for confirmation then it’s a case of identifying the variant in the case of further outbreaks from new variants

Unfortunately for us what we need is some good updates and PR from the company the radio silence is simply not helping.

Agree, you wouldn't add more staff to your business to service an account if the contract had already finished. So it looks on the face of it like they are gearing up to for the P2 but until a contract is announced we are totally in the dark. Its also a bit odd that all the stock is not listed so again it makes you think its being ready for shipment elsewhere.

But even without any substantial contracts the existing conservative broker estimates should be exceeded. So we are still looking at a minimum of 173m EBITDA and a cash pile of 278m in this year. Meanwhile the market cap languishes at 525m which does look bloody ridiculous in relation to the fundamentals not to mention all the work they are doing on sequencing to help keep us all on top of this pandemic without that work we wont know what viruses are hitting us.

As VanV has driven home to us this week, government is pushing ahead with LFTs regardless the policy being clear on Monday. I would think it odd for the government to be that cavalier with the health of the nation if they haven't at least taken any insurance by bolstering gold standard testing at the NHS so we know what we are dealing with in the event of further outbreaks, but its any ones guess.

I'm personally worried sick that a negative LFT will be enough for a visitor to enter a care home. Is the government really going to be that stupid? Is a level of collateral damage acceptable? is this the plan?

One thing for sure, market sucks up hype more than it does substance by the looks of it and no doubt some market turbulence next week. But obviously at some point we will all need to see exactly what is awarded and to whom and how viable that business is.

Finally, there must be some reason for the talk on sequencing next week, lets face it Novacyt are hardly first in the que for PR so must be some reason for that? is it to bolster awareness stateside? Is some other update going to follow it?

GLA

B2HS2L
If you paste into ms word and then copy paste it works
can you precise the key points? Thanks

Nothing to add
Just a rant, that i would love them to dump that crappy French listing and move the lot over to the Nasdaq with quarterly reporting.
With two languages it just makes any coverage even harder to get out and we get next to sod all business out of France anyhow so why bother with it???

@RBMInvest
I will try to forget what you posted then:)

@Kaeren
independent would be on it like a tramp on chips, they love a good negative bash Novacyt story..