Member Info for Porky9

Fantastic Jimmy1961

The more coverage the better, brilliant....

@Hartlebury
Indeed, very interesting isn't it because if you asked the average person in the street they would probably incorrectly assume that with all the hype around vaccines that testing would be down. Yet i reality it's higher than ever.
Confident of a VERY strong H1, Any large contracts on top and we could see more than a full SP recovery.
Holding the faith.... Lets hope this blue day is the first of many

Have to say with the amount of recruitment going on now at Novacyt in NHS related roles, I can well understand why retail investors are starting to believe that phase 2 is going to happen.

Frankly, the NHS should role out further Q machines because with all the Variants we are now seeing they will need that equipment on hand.

Happy for any contract to land, Best case scenario is if its a contract over a longer period such as 2 years or more, something to give us that long term revenue position to encourage a decent re-rating.

Could get interesting.....

Positive end to todays trading
Long may it continue tomorrow
GLA
Pork's

Various messages also about Novacyt new staff positions relating to NHS
https://twitter.com/MattDWalker/status/1364928710151929870

Rumour mill in overtime that DHSC contract is on......

Frankly i hope its the case as it will materially change the SP level.

No idea, but a long way to go...
General consensus on Twitter (not a credible source) is that its being traded on technical's
i.e in layman's terms:
It reached an oversold position on various graphs with cups and handles and wedge formations and blue stars in the distance and it was decided that if couldn't get pushed any lower the only way was up.
Frankly, i will take it....

Alternatively, it could be a bounce ahead of tomorrows variant discussion, rumour of some amazing contract or some hostile bid incoming because the SP is so ridiculously low in relation to fundamentals - take your pick

Good luck all

@DogTyred
Short sellers cleaned up frankly, little downside left at these levels, unless brokers start introducing BOGOF deals on NCYT stock purchases LOL
They will probably target something more hype based...
sooner we are back in the 9s the better.

Well we are being traded on technicals, company has so much to give but at least its a possible break out of sorts.
I will take anything that moves us further north at the moment
GLA

To be using NCYT Primers in RNA sequencing to compare transcriptional dysregulation resulting in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is quite something.

From the report it looks like very early testing on CHD8 could this in turn lead to specific early stage drug treatment to support brain development to reduce risks of ASD?? who knows the potential but it does at least show how versatile the technology is at Novacyt:-

Tests "with the Precision nanoScript 2 Reverse Transcription Kit (PrimerDesign Ltd.) "

Amazing find.

@Naewise
I tend to agree with you

You would think by now that any Vaccine news is well and truly factored in. The UK could be swimming in different vaccines frankly but it doesn't change anything.

The harsh fact is that we will have to live with this virus, it is going to mutate and keep changing just like the flu virus each year. Hence vaccines will need to be constantly updated - this is where our whole gene sequencing data comes in.

Meanwhile, its a fact that by end of June, in a best case scenario in the UK with maximum vaccine take up there will still be something like 30-33% continuing exposure risk of the virus and that's just the UK and we are one of the best placed. USA and ROW in a far worse position now.

Hence we will need ongoing testing, NHS fully prepared so they know exactly what they are dealing with, whole gene sequencing to keep on top of new variants and surge lockdowns in places were a new variant breaks out.

Not great

Looking forward to Fridays whole genome sequencing event, that could give us some more information on the outlook.

One of the best write ups I have read for a while regarding Novacyt from Interactive Investor.
Very accurate assessment
Well done II....

Whilst i genuinely believe H1 Results will likely exceed estimates due to current success, I'm not expecting anything further reported on revenues over the next few weeks unless something material changes the current outlook.

As such i'm going 100% off both broker forecasts namely:-

Numis Security
Revenues 317m EBITDA 201m CASH at Bank 279m Fair Value SP £ 13.65

S P Angel
Revenues 271m EBITDA 173m CASH at Bank 278m Fair Value £ 14.33

Numis to the year end were within 5%, they updated the forecast only yesterday hence i expect that forecast to remain VERY accurate. Under normal market conditions you would expect to see our SP significantly higher in relation its fundamental strength but clearly this is being ignored.

So with sentiment low due to vaccine success in the UK and rainbow chasing elsewhere it looks like we need something material to land to change retail sentiment / attract new investor interest to boost the SP namely:-

1. A substantial order (such as DHSC which is looking possible or something Stateside)
2. A partner / Major White label or license deal Agreed
3. An acquisition / Acquisition creating long term revenues
4. Some government deal to come out of whole genome sequencing
5. New product launch that can add revenues directly or under license (saliva tests / antibody tests possible)
6. A move to Nasdaq where the stock is opened up to a significantly bigger trading market audiance

Personally, i believe the next few weeks for Novacyt through to H1 results will paint its direction. If NONE of the above are forthcoming and the SP continues to drift on low sentiment then a takeover looks more likely.

Unless anyone has anything to add to this list this is how i currently see it??

Porks

@B2HS2L
Not sure the point of your diamond rough comment, unless it was your attempt at patronising me but at 54 I'm a bit long in the tooth for that sort of thing but in the balance of fairness, as you do make "some" valid points, i will simply ignore.
As for value add, I do call it as it is but equally i do try and keep a positive spirit on here especially on days where its total doom and gloom and we have seen a number of new posters here with specific agendas for sure.
I also despise posts calling for £ 3 / £ 4 what ever but that's my issue. We should be on the "same side" here
I only have the interests of the SP climbing to where it needs to be - that is all.
Take Care

@gggg21
Would agree to a certain extent however i actually was in communication with GM. I raised a specific two part question and it sat with him for about two weeks and then it was later passed to the PR agency. IT was NOT a PR question so they couldn't answer if they tried. It was not a NDA question either.
So i suspect they received a volume of emails from disgruntled SH in general asking what they were doing and then they got grouped and forward to the PR agency.

Another reason to move to the NASDAQ..

Not having to write everything in French. Pointless waste of energy. The French are probably not even interested . They probably don't even know what the NHS is or it's significance . We do bugger all business in France, why are we bothering....

I would say that
"and its current deployment across the NHS and to international markets"

is a fairly significant line to leave off the RNS !!!! what are they paying that PR agency for exactly??

So someone clearly thought it was either an NDA point or for some other reason confirming that PROmate is being rolled out in the NHS can't be stated for some other reason.

@B2HS2L
Patience i have had in spades, I'm not selling ANY stock and just adding as i can afford and trust me on this, I have been building a fairly substantial holding in the back ground. So i'm either going to end up very well rewarded for backing this business or have the mother of all losses to write off against my tax returns and if i end up taking a hit on this sobeit.

I have no stop loss and i wont be selling anytime soon. Even if the share price tanked to 1p so the MMs can do what the FCK they like to the share price.

What I'm frustrated about here is the SP manipulation going on. The business is delivering great results and making a real difference yet its not reflected in the SP and that is just not right.

I still believe this will ultimately come good, i still maintain my price targets but it shouldn't take a large contract or acquisition or other to move the SP as they are already delivering - this is my point - they will have 278m of cash at the end of this FY - frankly you couldn't make this business more profitable - the BOD are doing a sterling job but for whatever reason sentiment is lost and the rich fundamentals here don't count for sh@t based on todays closing SP

So with todays broker update from Numis and remember they were practically spot on in 2020. (Revenues Forecast 305m and actual came in at 311m) profits remain strong and we have growth on 2020.
Without any major additions:-

Numis Security
Revenues 317m EBITDA 201m CASH at Bank 279m Fair Value SP £ 13.65

S P Angel
Revenues 271m EBITDA 173m CASH at Bank 278m Fair Value £ 14.33

So with todays broker update from Numis and remember they were practically spot on in 2020. (Revenues Forecast 305m and actual came in at 311m) profits remain strong and we have growth on 2020.
Without any major additions:-

Numis Security
Revenues

Not to mention they are expanding stateside and it would probably add to their credibility and further support stateside orders.