RE: Worth remembering27 Nov 2021 09:19
Just want to add a little perspective here:
Let’s not lose sight of the reasons why we invested here, we are talking world class potential and a HOT area within the Biotech space that will make a material difference to many lives.
Merck are on board and imo will ultimately be the acquirer, it’s a matter of time. The mcap is very low and will ultimately deliver a sterling return imo but AIM shares are volatile in nature and we have to accept turbulence as matters progress in the meantime.
Now, as we know with Biotech’s these things can take longer than expected. Meanwhile, unfortunately retail investors are impatient and understandably so. They want result's now but investing is a long game, Biotech's take time to build and you need to take a long term view.
4D have advised they will be updating this quarter, IM personally expecting something on the Asthma trials before the year end. I’m further expecting MAJOR updates in the First quarter, they have confirmed these timelines.
I think it was really unfortunate that Steven dumped a load more stock when he did, timing for us was dire. We don’t know why, it could be portfolio balancing, he might need the money, we just don’t know. This is the big problem I guess with having a big private whale on board, but I would be more concerned if it was Merck selling. In fact, materially more concerned but they are not.
This week we have seen Auto selling into the buys which has been frustrating I know. I calculate about £250k a day this week. So, investors naturally assume its either Steven dumping yet more stock or a short position trying to shake retail out.
Eitherway, it adds to the pressure at the backdrop of a poor market. If it is Steven, then we will likely see a TR1 on Monday or Tuesday.
If it’s a Short from either worldquant .41 or Renaissance Technologies .49 then you could view it as a positive, as ultimately all those shares will need to be brought back and when they are we will see a major rally. Its just a waiting game.
So, it really comes down to your investment timeline. If you need the cash now it’s a tough call, if you can sit it out then it should right itself more than so before the end of Q1.
Finally, let’s not forget the business is well funded and the interest rates already agreed so as such it can perfectly weather the current storm, business is sound, its just the SP for now that’s the issue but as I say will right itself in time
GLA
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