Member Info for Porky9

There is another angle on this some are not considering;

Much focus on what Olivia may or may not be doing but based on recent events he is likely already down to 6.5%. The shorts have about 2.5% to buy back. You are assuming he is closing his position, might not be the case but even if he is, 4D recently carried out a number of II presentations, todays news could result in one taking a position especially at this low mcap level now concept proven.

The other consideration is that as the data for this is so good and don't forget other data in the pipeline on the other trials due between now and end of Q1 is now highly likely to be similar: i.e Proving it BLOODY WORKS this could well result in Merck increasing their position or more likely moving forward plans for an acquisition.

Whatever the case, for me todays news firmly underpins the market cap imo. The MMs and shorters can manipulate all they like but this is going sharply north from here.

Upside from here significant compared to any downside risk imo
GLA

@Russky
Without doubt, Unless any retail are really desperate for Christmas cash, shorts will try it on but ultimately now its game over for shorting this stock. Much better targets out there. They need to buy back but as you say its managing it...

LMAO
Bloody Brilliant, Bring it on...
SP can only get stronger now moving into Q1 as more and more results of other trials are released
ADD to that the FDA updates

Lets put it another way, nobody in their right mind is going to short or sell at 65p.... ZERO downside potential now for shorters hence they can only start losing money...

IMPACT: SP will start moving MATERIALLY higher
GLA

Treatment with Blautix led to structural changes in the gut microbiota of patients with both IBS-C or IBS-D. These changes did not occur in placebo treatment groups.

The results show that administration of a single strain Live Biotherapeutic can have significant positive effects on the composition and structure of the microbiome in these patients
a significant solution to address the high unmet needs of millions of patients globally with IBS

NOTE: We also have the other data sets due to be updated shortly and between now and end of Quarter one. Bottom line; LBPs work

The processing delay times at FDA are to be expected due to Covid, doesn’t concern me, government process, it doesn’t change the fact that the data results are really good.

SP is currently oversold and shorted. That is about to materially change. There will be a number of people short here going into melt down. Bring it on...

GLA

lol @Winsnip88
Worried about your short.... bloody should be

FDA side is a process, its the fact that the trials have produced a proven result that is the main thing, the rest follows.
Amazing

@Phil
Its amazing, confirms proof of concept

Moreover, its proven changes in the microbiome, this has a knock on effect to everything at 4D

This is MAJOR, its not a case of the SP rising, its a case of how big the mark up will be, is this going 400 % ?

Low volume time of the year but bloody hell this news is megga

GLA

FCKING AMAZINGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

@Wolfie
And you previously thought i posted a lot...
Jeeze, this Dribbles idiot really is trying to get his de-ramping posting Christmas bonus in.

Climate looking ugly, testing levels increasing that's the harsh reality, Novacyt will be working at max capacity frankly
GLA

Thanks @Dave
Will be glad to see the back of this year, here's to a better 2022

Meanwhile, once they have the data sets it all needs collating. Also, lets face it, for Shareholders it needs putting into layman's terms. I'm fairly relaxed, they are into so many verticals with this its incredible. Some are potentially explosive.

I think if they can issue an update on the Asthma and the Pancreatic trials that are due in days, this could be the trigger for II buying and bring greater awareness to new retail investors, whilst giving existing investors further positive reassurance of the continuing progress. Would also give the media and all the share publications something positive to report on.

I notice we closed up on the Nasdaq just short of 9% tonight so you never know that could kick start us here? Personally i think some of the issue we have regarding the share price is just simply down to lack of awareness . On this AIM market which is at best a dam Casino at times, investors are chasing all kinds of cr@p without knowing anything about what they are buying, just following trends and graphs. There are companies with next to nothing behind them getting all kinds of investment volume, we just need the break here to get noticed.

At 4D as i see it, this is a phenomenal business, massive amounts of IP, the research and development is simply incredible.

From my own research, I really believe this is the future. If you asked the average man in the street what live biotherapeutic products (LBP) are they wouldn't have a dam clue BUT, in time i think they could end up being as common place as an antibiotic.

Anyhow, will shut up now, lol. See how events unfold. When i tell other investors about LBP and they look at me blank, i just point them to the 2min video on the 4D website, it speaks volumes:-
https://www.4dpharmaplc.com/en

Our day in the sun will come here, I'm sure. Just a waiting game for now, GLA

LOL
Impatient but a lot are, some updates now would be great
That's why the shorter's and MMs do so well at this time of year.
As long as its quality when it arrives that's good enough for me
Take care

This is Big imo
New Trial starting recruiting today to treat Pancreatic Cancer
Why no RNS on this??

Bulk of Director's Buys at £1.10 and £1.14, £1.15 some lower but consensus around the £1.10 placing rate.

No Director will potentially want to risk losing their job within a bigger Biotech environment without some kind of earn out deal plus a decent premium for their share capital. So would £2 be enough? double their money, not sure i would do a deal that low if i was them. I don't know, a lot would depend on the commercial value of the business.

if you take just the Blautix pills for IBS, that's just one product in £2bn annual market place. Our market cap is currently down to £110m which is a farce, a licensing deal just for that one product would likely come in at more than the current mcap level and that's before we even look at their work in the fields of autism, asthma, diabetes, eczema, all the lifestyle diseases of the modern world - This is a billion plus company really.

See how it goes, expecting more shakes and MM nonsense in the meantime but, going on a break soon so will catch up after Christmas.

As i said before Que Sera Sera

GLA

I hear you Dave
Guidelines published confirm some for end of this month and some quarter one
The previous IR emails confirmed they were on track.

There is one scenario that does however concern me.... Its clear to me from competing data and the investment from other Big Pharma that this not only works big style but there is gearing up for LBP Production. And as Merck are not only a shareholder but also involved in certain trials they will have first hand knowledge of the effectiveness of LBP and 4D have practically EVERY patient known to man in this sector... the risk is Merck making a move now and taking them out cheap before shareholders see true value.

Think about it, the placing was at £1.10 if they tried a cheeky 35% premium to the placing £1.50 they could take this out maybe ????

Bidding war you say, yes, but if Merck have the internal data nobody else knows the true value

See what happens. For me i'm just adding now though to end of Q1. This is either going to be absolutely massive or LBP is a perpetual lemon and doesn't work. indications are that that is not the case - time will tell

GL

Part TWO…

I genuinely think if you are investing in the Biotech space you just can’t ignore this opportunity. We are not talking about one product here; it has life changing potential across multiple applications.

If we take just 4D’s Blautix pills for IBS, I really can see this being one of the first off the block and being a commercial reality and that one product alone is in a marketplace expected to grow to $2bn by 2026. The previous data was showing it was 62% effective.

BUT moreover, there are noises out of Spain and Japan regarding how effective LBPs are in other fields of development which has also been very encouraging. As such I believe that the data due out shortly and during Q1 could really put 4D well and truly on the map.

I am however, still firmly of the opinion that shareholders will never see the full potential here. Merck hold nearly 5%, once those data sets are issued and proven, without doubt Merck will acquire 4D as it would be total madness not to, it makes
total commercial sense to me.

It will be interesting how events unfold but I’m not concerned about the recent reduction by Steven or the resulting shorts. Ultimately the shorts will need buying back and funds will buy here once data is rolled out and proven hence Steven wont be an issue either. I would however be concerned if Merck sold out but that relationship is still going strong as far as we know. As it stands as long as they remain backers of 4D so will I.

Exciting times…

GLA

Part ONE….

Just parking to one side the current share price here as it has no relation whatsoever to where it will be once Live Biotherapeutic products (LBP) start to gain approval and move into mainstream manufacture. Make no mistake this field is potentially MASSIVE.

From my research carried out the state of play Is that there are currently No microbiome targeting products yet on the market. 4D clearly have a significant number of patents in this field established which is VERY exciting hence, as soon as just one enters the market without doubt the value of 4D will Just explode.

This field is still so new and advancing that the FDA regulatory framework is also still evolving to accommodate it.

Under the radar, I noticed that in August both Takeda and Johnson and Johnson entered the field alone or in partnership to work on LBPs. Development of microbiome targeting therapies until now has been dominated by small and mid sized biotech’s like 4D, so this illustrates to me that Big Biotech have an eye on this developing area.

Let’s face it, this field could ultimately become the biggest pharmaceutical growth story this century and the big boys will want a slice of that.

Small Bio competitor List Biotherapeutics recently confirmed the building of a $125m LBP manufacturing site in Fishers in Indiana USA. This is a 110,000 sq. foot facility:-
https://www.youarecurrent.com/2021/12/07/list-biotherapeutics-announces-plans-to-build-microbiome-manufacturing-facility-in-fishers/

Appreciate this is not a big sum in pharma terms but it still represents a decent chunk of change for something not fully proven.

Cont….

There has been a heck of a lot of fund presentations

With any luck, the data is great and the funds buy in on the back of it or better still Merck increase their holding. In which case SO selling the entire fcking lot won't matter.

All the shorts would need buying back on top and that's about 2.24pc ??

I'm not totally sure but i think there are some restrictions on the 4D SO acquired of the woodford deal. not sure he can sell all of them so you might find what extra he could sell now wouldn't cover the shares the shorters need to buy back

What we need now is that data news to create the buying interest to really move this up a gear..

I'm still happy adding at this level. GLA

Well no surprise there
And explains why on the two previous attempt's to break out moment we got going he was selling into it.

Meanwhile, the shorter's would just love that because if they could short into it before Steven the price was guaranteed to fall. Question is has he now finished?? or is he wanting to sell more??

IF he has finished then that wont make it so easy for those with short positions to buy back cheaply - we will see. Really we could do with a fund or Merck to take his position.

The sector is also hotting up again:

List Biotherapeutics, Inc., whose parent company is South Korea-based Genome & Company, announced a more than $125 million investment in the city of Fishers to establish a new 110,000 square foot contract manufacturing organization (CMO) facility on 15 acres in the Fishers Life Science & Innovation Park. The company plans to hire 210 employees in Fishers in the areas of biologics manufacturing and quality and regulatory compliance after commissioning the facility by the end of 2023 which includes new lab and office space in Fishers.
hxxps://buildingindiana.com/list-biotherapeutics-plans-new-microbiome-manufacturing-facility/

So if competition are investing these sort of sums into manufacture of LBP and 4D hold so many patents there must be something in this???

You don't chuck 125m into establishing an LBP microbiome manufacturing facility if its a pile of cack and the products have zero benefit? That would be crazy.

The more you look into this the more you understand its potential.

On the downside, i don't think investors will see the full SP potential, The moment data is out and its proven the SP will rally, i then think Merck will swoop and buy it out before it gets expensive. LBP offers such a mega expansion revenue field and Big pharma need that.

Could get interesting yet. GLA

@crl123
looks like ED touched a nerve there...
But seriously, i do totally get why you are ****@ed, fundamentally there is absolutely no reason why the SP is this low and to see shorter's trying to squeeze it that bit more really is borderline mega irritating but that's what they want.
They want retail to lose interest, get bored and capitulate their holdings and this period is primetime for that.

The only thing i would add is that 4D have confirmed four times to my knowledge they are on track to update this quarter so we should get to hear something and that's all this share needs right now. When the update comes in, investors will be paying a premium for them.

Meanwhile, whilst you can never call bottom, i don't think there is anyone else left to sell stock here of any meaningful amounts, unless of course Steven wants to dump some more or shorters want to try and push it a bit more but no point in pushing the short more if retail won't sell into it and as we are bouncing along that 62p line, the downside risk to upside potential now does look like its tipping in our favour but WTFDIK

see how it goes... you never know,

Oh and the other obvious positive which i really, really like:-

When the news finally lands, should it be as positive as we expect and the SP does move up, the price move will become explosive imo. For a start Bronte Capital are short 900,000 shares and Renaissance are still in at .49 i understand so that's what another 850,000 shares. I really hope they have to pay through the nose for them

Nothing i like more than seeing these shorting scumbags getting a kicking, shareholders here have taken a royal beating as a result of these vulture about time the playing field was levelled

GLA