Member Info for Porky9

UKHSA The Numbers will be staggering over the coming days compared to what we have seen in the past
We are facing the Highest Growth rate since the start of the Pandemic

I don't think more needs to be said, sorry but Testing is going to be off the scale by the New Year

@P100
I have explored this stock from EVERY possible angle and yes, directors should have some free grants most likely, however,,, lets not forget this stock rallied to 12 odd quid in the past and the position regarding directors and shares was the same back then.
You could just as easy get an RNS saying, new PCR Rapid test validated, extended order with NHS due to volume shortage, Dispute resolution and matter closed...
You can't predict this but you can see that infections globally are going through the roof and as such testing numbers will reflect the same...
GLA

Omicron takes over in London with variant accounting for more than 50% of Covid cases
The number of coronavirus patients in London’s hospitals is at its highest level since March
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/omicron-dominant-variant-london-cases-covid-b971803.html

@BYP
Think of this board as more akin to writing in felt tip "I was here" on the back of a bog door. or writing on the back of white van in need of a wash in the dirt "I wish my wife was this dirty" and someone else then writing underneath it "She is"

Its just a BB, an anonymous board to post messages and here ideally to be about the stock the board picks up, it really doesn't matter that much....

As one pig to another...
Have to say You are becoming one obsessive Piggy... slow down...
You are not serious, this has to be distraction technique you are using surely.....

Don't worry i only post infrequently as i cant stand the bloody trolling

But seriously BYP, its not healthy, you could end up as Bacon at this rate....
Take Care
Pork's

Despite some of the unkind comments towards Duncan this is one heck of a business and I believe that LBPs could well become bigger than antibiotics, that’s the scale of this.

Ultimately this business will end up in the hands of big biotech as it’s a massive growth area which 4D dominate, they have patents in practically every vertical and Biotech’s will want control of that, I have no doubts on this whatsoever.

I don’t need a snake oil salesman to sell me LBPs, they are bloody brilliant. The last two updates regarding the effectiveness of LBPs were fantastic and further endorse why you should be invested here. 4D and the potential of LBPs is not in question.

The next few updates will be even bigger Imo as I see no reason why their effectiveness won’t continue to be mirrored in the next data sets. Duncan just needs to carry on doing what he is doing.

The issue we are facing, is nothing to do whatsoever with 4D, its totally out of their control Imo. I bet if Duncan could decide which funds buy his company stock, he wouldn’t want Steven Oliveira anywhere near his business, but we are where we are.

If backers in a small fund want out due to performance, his healthcare hand cream investment went south I understand, Oliveira has no choice but to sell.

I have been closely monitoring the Automated Sell activity and by my rough calculation he was down to about 6.5% last Friday and has been actively selling this week. Possibly sub 5% now. Meanwhile as I previously posted shorts are at about 3% or more as the vultures moved in on the back of this.

At some point we are due a major rebound when we pass the tipping point of where Oliveria has closed out, that’s of course if he needs to sell 100% and shorts need to buy back. I believe we are VERY close to that point, and we have two major updates this month still to land that could be that catalyst.

As I see it, Shareholders are currently in the eye of the storm, but we are coming out the other side but its still rocky. Ultimately, the rewards will be there. It's a great opportunity to ADD.

GLA

I just think sometimes our government hasn't got a fcking clue....
To Quote:-

The Dominic Raab accused ITV of "ranting" as he was challenged over the confusion he sowed on the number of Omicron hospital admissions.
He told the presenter of ITV's Good Morning Britain, Adil Ray: "First of all, I misheard one of the questions around whether it was hospitalisations of Omicron-related patients or more generally, but the figures are: one death from Omicron, 10 in hospital, and I can tell you the latest daily hospitalisations run at 900."
Speaking to Sky News earlier, Mr Raab said that if the rate of transmission continues, "we will see those numbers increase very dramatically".
"A proportion of those hospitalised will possibly die or have a very serious suffering" due to Omicron, he warned.
But he said there was currently "no plan" for more restrictions beyond Plan B.

Meanwhile:
Health Secretary Sajid Javid told MPs that the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) estimates that the current number of daily infections are around 200,000.
The UKHSA confirmed that data was referring to the number of people estimated to be newly infected with Omicron today.
It will raise new questions about whether Boris Johnson will have to announce further restrictions, after he refused three times to rule out doing so before Christmas.

So there you have it.....

Frankly as i see it, if 200,000 are getting Omicron a day, that's 200,000 PCR Test confirmations of same, as we are one of only seven authorised to provide the tests the volumes at Novacyt must be absolutely flying...

Why the share price here isn't absolutely booming is beyond me, oh that's right i forget, it gets shorted and manipulated to death, but even allowing for the manipulation we should be climbing materially higher.

The outlook for covid is currently dire imo, i would not be surprised in the slightest if we are back in another lock down in the new year.

Stay safe everyone...

Correction:
I wouldn't trade DDDD selling and expecting to buy back cheaper

To Clarify:
I believe the SP direction can change fairly quickly hence its a very risky strategy, I have been locked out by NT in the past and i have also been prevented from buying larger blocks.
The MMs are also prone to widening the spread so if you sell you might not get back in for a better price than what you exit at.
The moment we get any buying pressure, shorts will close causing this to re-rate north sharply
As i posted i genuinely think we are close to the tipping point where SO has finished or sold out completely and shorts will need to start closing.
The further updates may also have greater impact on the SP
Wouldn't be surprised if Bid news lands frankly for new year - we are both oversold and vulnerable imo

GLA

i have had numerous situations where its NT
Certainly at higher volumes and even as low as £5k so its not something i wouldn't attempt to trade, or risk, you did well to achieve what you claim as it could very much have turned against you.

It's all fairly academic anyhow, We do have further updates due any moment but it comes down to Olivia doesn't it really?

My calculation was he was down to 6.5% last week. Today he clearly sold a massive chunk into the rise. Shorts are in at about 3% hence we are close to tipping point where Olivia has finished selling and shorts need to buy back to cover positions. We don't know if he has stopped at 5% now or if he has closed out completely? Totally in the dark and a lag on when TR1s are issued doesn't help, we are due one any moment. When he has finished and shorts start to close the share price correction will be sharp and we will gap higher.

In the meantime, Its so so annoying that Shareholders are put in this position. This is such a great company and the recent updates have been superb. We could not ask for more. The share price wouldn't be more damaged if they had released two updates saying LBPs didn't work, that's how ridiculous this situation is.

The remaining updates before the year end also due in respect of:-
MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Part B initial data
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study
Are likely to be more game changing as they concern cancer trials. See how events unfold.

It's a fantastic business, we sit in oversold territory now but we really are vulnerable to a lower level takeover. 4D have patents over practically every LBP field, its a matter of when not if, imo.

GLA

@Coldbrew
Good point, I guess all you can go off is that the Blautix Product is in a 4bn annual market place and the Asthma product is in an 18bn market place and that's just two lines hence licensing deals should be fairly significant. So, Bids should reflect what the business is worth.
The only other thing to go off is that the placing was at £1.10 and directors were in at that level plus also director buys at £1.14 and £1.15 so i cant see Duncan myself accepting any offer less than what he brought shares at. But moreover, if you agree for your business to become part of a bigger entity realistically it has to be worth your while. So you would want a decent package and earn out guaranteed going forward and a decent premium offer for your shares.

We have to see how events unfold but frankly if i was Merck, AZN or Pfizer i would make a move now early and take it out whilst its cheap and VERY vulnerable. Alternatively if i was Duncan, i might even try and MBO it, the current situation is a bloody farce.

Well lets face it, Shorter's have done well on the back of Oliveria but that Honeymoon is shortly coming to an end. I would say he is down to 6.5 as at Friday, I'm expecting a TR1 shortly to that effect. The shorts are at least 2.5 could be significantly more so it very tight now.

And lets face it, nobody is selling at the current level for profit, its either capitulation or plain boredom and with the last two updates its proving the concept. So if you have come this far, only a fool would part with their shares this low down and the shorts will need to buy back from somewhere.

Still further positive news out shortly and the last two updates have been impressive. I am incredibly bullish for this company. The share price is sh@t but I think the business is just terrific. As i posted before, i genuinely see LBP as common place as antibiotics, that's how big this is imo.

Just a matter of time before the SP reflects how amazing this business is, see how the next few weeks go. If shorts want to try and squeeze more i will continue to buy into it.

GLA

well there will be a few on the sidelines and shorters hoping ad praying to buy back cheaper
But SP is already half the placement rate and fantastic data continues to flow confirming the effectiveness of LBPs
So you make your call
IM certainly a buyer at these levels
GLA

I have an email confirmation from 4D IR that confirms they are still on track to update us in line with the business plan. I have no reason whatsoever to doubt that they wont update us before 31/12 as outlined in respect of:-

4D confirmed due before 31/12 Q4
MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Part B initial data
MRx-4DP0004: Phase I/ll asthma, preliminary data
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study
Blautix®: Strategy

GLA

For those into charting;

Bottom of Range bounce due to 90p level
Lots of Catalysts due shortly to support that
RSI indicating a sharp Move North shortly from current oversold position
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1470275997144604673

A number of shorter's looking to push us down but we still have a number of catalysts due to support a materially higher share price namely:-

4D confirmed due before 31/12 Q4
MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Part B initial data
MRx-4DP0004: Phase I/ll asthma, preliminary data
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study
Blautix®: Strategy

See how it goes, GLA

Hi Lewis
May I ask what it is that puts you off having the vaccine?
I'm assuming that you are fairly young and fit? perhaps under 30 and feel like titanium?
But the vaccine is here to give you those anti bodies you need that will help you fight off the virus should you contract it.
I'm intrigued? What is it you don't like?
This is not a criticism btw, we live in a world of free choice. I'm just trying to get my head around the logic of living in a western world where the vaccine is freely available yet deciding to ignore it.
Thanks

@Kaeren
As you quite rightly say, when you add in the actual vaccine that was received the percentage protection levels fall. In my own case i had no option, my first two were AZ vaccine and my recent booster was Pfizer

BUT
The big Elephant in the room is also Vaccine protection over time. Our current Best protective vaccine from Pfizer still only provides for 88% at month one to 74% at months five and six.
The AZ is 77% at month one to 67% at months four and five
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2113

This is probably why I'm reading that as many as nearly half of those taken to hospital are vaccinated. Yes, some will shout but nobody dies now from Covid, however it doesn't stop people becoming really critically ill or released from hospital but now living with long covid issues.

Bloody mess frankly

I’m 100% Pro vaccines and have had my third booster however….

The reality is that we live in a world where a percentage do not trust the vaccine at any cost, have no access to the vaccine or simple won’t keep renewing it.

You may disagree with me but, vaccine take up will actually start to fall off. When I was in the que for my third booster the guy next to me said, sod this I’m not coming back here every six months.

This is the thing, isn’t it? Going for an annual jab is one thing, going every six months for a new updated version is something else.

Boris is currently running round bloody clueless, not invested in any infrastructure just gone all in on vaccines and initially got lucky. He is still pushing the same agenda but about to fall on his face.

Here is the TRUE picture: -
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

56% of the world has still only had one dose.

In the UK 68.4% are Fully Vaccinated and a further 6.6% partial vaccinated totalling 75%

So, lets flip that around we are now going into the fifth wave of Covid, and a quarter of the UK are NOT vaccinated, and we are a sophisticated country. That’s one in four.

Look at the rest of the world towards your underdeveloped countries Philippines, South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and we are falling to 3.5%. In other words, they remain hotbeds for virus mutations

The reality is that the vaccines will need to be continually updated, we will need to keep testing and mapping to identify new variants so that the vaccines can be updated, and we will always have a percentage of apathetic, stupid, naysayers or otherwise that won’t get vaccinated.

Mirror that throughout the rest of the world.

Testing is here to stay, frankly.

@Sang
For someone claiming to be ahead in terms of medical knowledge research in this space, you cant possibly compare Lenvima with 4Ds LBP product - both have entirely different advantages.

Don't get me wrong, from a Bullish perspective i hope you are right and it increases the relevance of 0518. I am specifically looking forward to the part B initial data report this month, hopefully it will prove explosive.

GL

@fairdealer
The link is to a report on another trial that Merck were running in respective of Lung Cancer involving another totally different trial element in conjunction with Keyrunda. Merck have numerous trials running all the time involving all kinds of new drugs and treatments.

The issue i had was that i had to read the entire f'cking article to establish what the report was and IF it had any bearing whatsoever on what 4D are involved with or LBPs per sae. Which it doesn't.

Many following here do NOT research or go into any specific detail and won't invest the time. They may Read the headline and may assume it's negative when it's not. Had the OP posted the link with a brief synopsis of what the article was about time wasted could have been avoided. That's of course if the OP did in fact read the article?

So its not so much a case of "Fake News" the article is fair enough, it's just fck all to do with LBPs and IF they work or not.

Data out so far data from 4D coupled with reports from others in the same sector in Spain and Japan, are confirming fairly conclusive evidence regarding how effective LBPs are. I have no issue with info, good bad or indifferent as long as its clarified.

For total clarity:-
This is what 4D confirmed as still due before 31/12:-

MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Phase I/II, Part B initial data, Q4 2021 / Q1 2022
MRx-4DP0004: Phase I/ll asthma, preliminary data, Q4 2021
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data, Q4 2021
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study, Q4 2021
Blautix®: Strategy

So every chance of not just further specific updates as above before 31/12 but some game changing updates.

Shorter's will shortly start to panic, they are on borrowed time now. Ultimately they need to buy back. I'm expecting some further efforts next week but its a short matter of time now imo before a major SP rebound. That's why I'm adding.

GLA