Member Info for Porky9

I actually think the only ones desperate are those few posting here with a few select short positions or those out and desperate to get back in but hoping for a better buy in price, but it matters not.

All shorts need to be brought back - I can wait - I continue to BUY

Compliments of Lee Ramseu on Twitter this is a great quick precis of current activity due to update on:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/LRamseu/status/1478845831973384196/photo/1

We know BLPs work, we have just had two great updates on the effectiveness of the LBPs with both IBS in the Blautix trial data and also in the Asthma Trials. We see anything like that in the Cancer trials and the share price uplift will be explosive imo.

There is no placement risk, a solid year of results yet to go, well funded and the shorter's know that.

IF 4D have not updated between now and end of the the end of this quarter on the key trial data then different story. For now i remain confident they will.

Genuine investor's in 4D don't jump out because a few in a telegram group got ****ed at a few options and are trying their luck at shorting. Hope you get badly burnt guys... I wont be helping your cause that's for sure, the more expensive i can make it for you to buy your positions back the better,

Good Luck

@OB - That's exactly how it is
@TDK - Taken your point, fair enough
@Iceman888 - Noted Thanks
@Rahel - Never short, don't believe in it, only invest in business.

Will keep following this chat board, if Adam has time to comment great. Market conditions mixed anyhow see how events here unfold. GLA

@TDK
I mean you no disrespect, I'm genuinely exploring this outside trading hours. If you point out where my figures are out it would be a big help. I genuinely don't think they are.

I also respect and rate Adam, he knows this sector inside out so maybe he can add value here?

But it doesn't matter what i think anyhow, they are currently going down this SPV route and we have to hope it comes together and in the timelines.

You might think i have some sneaky alternative plan here but i don't, just plain discussing this. I hold 400k shares, my thought's are we should take it in-house. My understanding is that we would be helping the stateside SPV find the bio partner for 201 anyhow, so why don't we just have stateside as a wholly owned subsidiary and do the lot ourselves?

Anyhow, i wont post if I'm offending, that's NOT my intention. I like this business, i think Suzy is great, the potential is massive, i just don't like this specific arrangement, i feel like we are giving our crown jewels away to some two bit start up with zero cash for them to then make the real money from 201.

I NEVER liked the concept from day one hence, why i reduced my holding and i'm still finding it hard to get behind it albeit i still hold stock here in the hope it will come good and TRUSTING their better judgement. That's where i stand.

Happy to engage further if it can add value

OK, Market closed now so hopefully we can have an adult discussion

Happy for ANYONE to correct me if I’m wrong here but, IF you read the CENKOS house broker report, they are estimating that VAL would have cash at bank to the December year end of £600k. The audited figure could be less. The full year results also indicated it would be less.

They were expecting in £420k upfront payment once TheoremRx gets funded. This hasn’t landed yet.

They are expecting $20k USD a month in ongoing consultancy fees from TheoremRx which just started £175k pa but this can be cancelled at any time with minimal notice.

We KNOW from last years results cash burn was £350k a quarter. The house broker thinks they can trim this to £100k a month however, I would argue the business is already bootstrap and the recent Hokkaido University evaluation deal will add £100k to the cost base this year.

But irrespective of what I think, even if they can get this SPV done and dusted over the line the cash position would still be bloody tight. IF this deal is not concluded by the end of March, its light’s out without a placing here????

We need VAL to be taking on 4 or 5 new projects this year imo to grow, they need wiggle room not further restriction.

Talk of further income from TheoremRX from near term milestones for 201 in 2022 which would total £710k including the £420k upfront is Pie in the Sky IMO because they are a skint member, it’s a start up. Unless its raising £100m stateside or a really good raise it would be totally reliant on finding a biotech partner to fund it. So why even give a cut to a middleman?
As such, imo Val UK should go it alone, they know 201 better than anyone and IMO should continue doing the work until they find that right partner.

Why we are in Jan now and still have no clarity or prospectus on TheoremRX is beyond me, why the secret? How much is it even trying to raise? Does anyone here know? I cant help the raise even if I wanted to?

As for talk of Suzy buying shares, give her a break, Jeeze, she is just not paid enough. As great as she is she is materially under paid, and Kevin knows this. I personally raised it at the investor talk. Frankly, they should just give her free options, but this is something else. She is however the primary reason I still hold here.

I know, some hate me for saying this but seriously guys. It might take us a bit longer to get to where we need to be, but my call is ditching this stateside crap, take direct control, issue a UK placement, strengthen the BOD to add a good negotiator and look for a more solid partner for 201 directly?

If they desperately need a stateside entity then fund it as part of the UK placement and just have it 100% Wholly owned by Valirx UK, call it SuzyormRX if they like….

GLA

@Davemcmanus
You can be a real prize, not desperate in the slightest. Hey, if you and any others think now is a good time to sell, go for it. Sell, Sell, Sell now and move on for a better opportunity. Good Luck to you, BYE

Meanwhile, I will continue to ADD, I like the business, the last two data sets were great IMO, I don't give a chuff about the BOD options, in fact I'm totally pro them. I want the new CFO to be fully loaded so that should they need to talk acquisitions its worth his while to agree terms.

I don't care about Oliveria, as soon as he out the better and not much to go now. With him out and shorts in play that will need buying back this will rebound VERY quick imo.

I am certainly not selling any of my holding with the view to trying to buy back cheaper either as an update could land at any moment and a number are due imminently. Having come this far i'm sticking with it and adding.

Be greedy when others are fearful as they say...

Yes but still transfers more ownership to the management team. Ultimately they will control more of the share capital
This is being positioned imo and the new CFO is experienced in this direction
I actually see this as a screaming buy, cant understand why some here cant see the bigger picture, but each to own
GLA

Also;

It's interesting that the additional options issued at 53.6p account for 8% which means when the BOD make the move to buy the shares they can effectively take out SO position.

Out goes the SO fun and in goes increased management ownership.... shrewd move.

Some are just not seeing the bigger picture here....

VERY happy ADDING Currently, each to own, GL

By my own calculations i actually had SO down to about 6.5% by 31/12 so not that far out.

Shorts are about 3% which will need buying back when the tide turns.

Using the opportunity to ADD as funds permit. Can change here at any given moment.

Sooner the first update lands of the quarter the better

GLA

LMOL

Oh really, makes perfect sense to sell at this point with so many major updates about to land anytime soon

Good luck

@Davemcmanus
I do hear you and yes i fully accept SH have had a tough ride of late but, i really feel that patience will be rewarded. There is just so much going on here and so much to update on.

The current minor focus on the options and Steven Oliveria will become a mere distraction shortly once the updates start rolling in:-

Compliments of Lee Ramseu on Twitter this is a great quick precis of current activity due to update on:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/LRamseu/status/1478845831973384196/photo/1

I mean look at it, we have just had two great updates on the effectiveness of the LBPs with both IBS in the Blautix trial data and also in the Asthma Trials. We see anything like that in the Cancer trials and the share price uplift will be explosive imo.

Sure there are a few that want to short this stock down further, i get that. Oliveria has not filed his TR1 yet which must be due any moment and has been a constant drain and has helped create further uncertainty however, i feel we are on the other side of that now. I'm not surprised the BOD have used the opportunity to set the options at practically an all time low point but, i really feel that the downside risk for shareholders from here is now fairly small in relation to upside potential.

The updates due will see a stratospheric change in the share price PDQ imo. It's all to play for here, it really is:-

The mcap is currently down to a mere £92m, that's dam low for what's on offer here:-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/4/4d-pharma-plc-ordinary-0.25p

The RSI is low at 37 and primed for a big move, I think Strength will climb rapidly and buying volume will start as new funds move in and updates land:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1478914207626272769

In all, this represents a unique opportunity to buy in or ADD at August 20 prices, yet the business and trials have advanced further forward and we are about to enjoy the fruits of that labour. That's why i remain adding at these levels, It's a cracking opportunity as far as i'm concerned from here.

Anyhow, lets see how events unfold but imo its all to play for and i'm certainly not selling at these levels that's for sure. This is time to join the BOD and be greedy. It will pay off.

GLA

Come on Duncan now, roll those updates.....

I don't think its reflective of 201, these are real trying times currently, covid has held trials back, these things take time, investors will understand that.

The cash burn is 350k a quarter but really they probably want at least another 5 or 6 projects in the pipeline at least going forwards and perhaps another board members and some non execs to support with strategy and bolster the team.

Nothing wrong with bootstrap but they can take this business up a gear with more capital. i would rather they do a decent raise and remove the time clock, ANY bio currently knows they could get 201 or 301 for a song as it stands because VAL have practically no cash left - it makes then very vulnerable

If 201 or the unknown Japan partner is not moving forward then look at deals elsewhere, cut a smaller deal with a bio with cash. The historic needs closing out, they can then focus on new new projects with more potential.

Anyhow, lets see how events unfold but its always prudent to have a plan B IMO.

@Badsterman
We never agreed in the past however, your posts 14.46 and onwards i totally agree with. You are right imo.

Commercially its the right decision. Not sure if Kevin perhaps thought they could get some free shares in the Stateside SPV deal or it was the only trick in town at the time BUT i'm with you on this. Ditch the stateside SPV and take it 100% in-house VAL UK will still be doing bulk of the work anyhow.

@rhubarbmk2
Your posts on here I respect and appreciate more than any other.

The bottom line is that we have a great business with great potential. Suzy is fantastic and without doubt a major asset to this business but irrespective of how great she is and how honest she is, lets face it we all totally trust her, she can only update us based on what SHE IS TOLD.

The issue here is that most sophisticated investors are NOT stupid. When they announced that they were effectively creating an SPV, a VAL2 stateside Imo, alarm bells were ringing, this is NOT where any of us wanted to be but perhaps it was the ONLY option? however, we were not given the full picture. Even now, we are still in the dark regarding the SPV, no prospectus? how much is it raising? Can it actually afford to pay Valirx in the future? Can VAL Investors support its listing? We know nothing. All we know is that it was going to be financially tight even with the deal completing on time.

To make it worse, we know that Valirx cash runway is only to the end of March so to put out an RNS saying that “Completion is subject to a successful fund-raise, with completion anticipated by end-Q1 2022”and “There is no guarantee that this sub-license will be executed or that it will generate material revenues within the expected timeframe or at all”

Frankly, I find disappointing, and it increases the investment risk ratio some what. “Anticipated by” what sort of assurance is that? Investors need more certainty. Hence, todays mark down. Frankly I’m surprised the SP has held up this well at 31p, I really am.

Some here might not like this suggestion, feel free to counter me, but imo Valirx should be: -

1. Securing SOLID TIMELINES from the stateside brokers and I might be so bold as to include financial time penalties if they don’t complete on time.

2. Informing Cenko’s right now, if we do not have confirmation stateside by say 31/1 of an exact completion date, they will need to proceed with a placement in Feb. I would suggest raising £4m at say 15p to cover the next 2 years costs AND give room to materially increase project numbers and strengthen the BOD.

Further, I would renegotiate fees with Cenkos, they should not future benefit from the 22p warrants after August as they have done nothing to secure II support to date and fees for this placement should be competitive, tender if necessary.

Finally, I really like Kevin BUT he CANNOT put VAL UK at risk on a promise from stateside broker. He needs a contingency plan now imo and we build from that. If the stateside SPV is set up and cash comes through fine, it’s a bonus but imo VAL UK shareholders should own half of it anyhow.

GLA

Great article that one on Genengnews, just shows how LBPs are starting to make an impact. Market will start to recognise big style shortly.

Meanwhile, i am the only one relaxed here Jeeze, give Duncan a bloody break. So a few staff options? so what. Lets see the SP back above the placing rate and the position starts to look better.

Tons due to update on and change things around, for a start off:-

MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Part B initial data
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study

Plus we also need more on Blautix®: Strategy is Due. Then we have the FDA feedback, this quarter is going to be amazing here imo.

GLA

Hmmm, i can understand why the market is nervous.

If VAL were doing a placing with CENKOS we would know exactly how much, the time line to complete and would know exactly what the cash runway looks like based on VALs current 350k a quarter cash burn. Total certainty.

Unfortunately for us, we are not in that position. We don't even know how much the SPV is trying to raise stateside, we don't know how successful that raise might be or IF it will complete before 31/3 which is circa when VALS current working capital runs out. Heck, i have not even seen a prospectus for this stateside placement, if i did i might be able to support.

On a positive, all the documentation and framework is in place and they must be confident the SPV will complete and advance funds to VAL before the quarter end. Maybe Adam or Nick will take another chunk more of stock to try and bolster the share price during this rocky period?

The SP looks worse than it really is, we went up 4p over the last couple of trading days on no news so todays small retrace is to be expected as the clarity and certainty is still unknown, see how it goes.

GLA

The up and coming investor conference will be good for those that don't follow LBPs or understand what this business is about, so i see that as a positive, although its obviously the major data updates due shortly that longer term holders now need to see. These are the catalysts to materially move the SP in my opinion.

As stated, so far we have had two smaller updates in relation to Both the Asthma Trials and the IBS Blautix trials and in both cases the data was superb. They were solid updates.

They prove the effectiveness of LBPs which is fantastic. The SP did not fully reflect either of these previous updates due to the counter of SO fund sells at the same time.

However, although we have the two Updates Issued 3 are Still yet to land:-

MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Part B initial data
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study

Plus we also need more on Blautix®: Strategy is Due. Plus some answers outstanding from the FDA which is outside of 4Ds control but also due at any moment.

As these updates flow, interest will build and the SP recover. SH wont care about the new options for the new CFO and the BOD once the SP is in a better place that's for sure.

Anyhow, the SP represents an amazing opportunity to Buy in at a discounted level as i see it. We are half the placement rate with these major updates due.

This first quarter this year could well prove to be transformative for 4D IMO.

I really remain VERY positive here, its been a rough ride but the data should do the talking shortly.

GLA

Some complaining about presentations but I couldn't care less if Duncan provided updates in his underpants and grew his beard longer than the Grizzly Adams - it doesn't matter

What matters is if if LBPs work or not.

We have had two smaller updates in relation to Both the Asthma Trials and the IBS Blautix trials and in both cases the data was superb. They were solid updates. LBPs bloody work. The SP did not fully reflect either of these updates due to the counter of SO fund sells at the same time. Sh@t timing for us retail investors frankly. However, we have the two Updates Issued BUT 3 are Still yet to land:-

MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Part B initial data
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study

Also more on Blautix®: Strategy is Due.

Yes, we do all want the updates due out any moment BUT these things take time to do and collate and this is at the backdrop of the Covid situation holding things up, not to mention we still await a few answers from the FDA. But this will happen and I'm sure Duncan is on this, he is doing a fantastic job as far as I'm concerned.

Personally, I'm not sure why some here are so negative, the business is progressing superbly, yes the share price is sh@t for sure but the business isn't. This really is the basis of all moans isn't it, we all want Investments to go up over time, sure we want the SP to be doing better here, those in at the placing need over 100% increase just to get money back, i accept they are going to be miffed about that. But it will get better from here, have some faith.

The share price can VERY quickly turn at any moment and it will, So lets get behind Duncan and support this great company. John has joined now to support as CFO, options are rightly issued to support that, frankly i am totally behind this also.

Matter of time now for us... lots due out soon, Duncan will not disappoint....

Go 4D, GLA

Not sure what time lines the new CFO is working to.
Personally, I'm happy he has these options immediately, VERY happy but WTFDIK.

I genuinely believe that after the data results are out if they prove to strengthen Merck keytruda then M&A will be a no brainer. The mcap is less than 92m here .....

Good luck whatever your call

@Coldbrew
I take your point
But I am equally delighted that John having just joined has an incentive. As you say, his appointment could well now help US II Support but moreover from my own perspective; it does provide a very nice benefit indeed should M&A become a reality. Half of me still thinks this is real possibility especially with Merck already involved as both a shareholder and in one of the main cancer trials which as we know data results are due out on very shortly.
Time will tell i guess.

New Grants and options including John at 53.6p also a good move, makes sense.

Personally i like the fact very much that the BOD have both skin in the game and a vested interest in the SP climbing materially higher than where it is today with options at this level....

Not to mention should aherm.... Merck or others come knocking or we see acquisition interest further down the road this makes decisions that bit easier to reach :)

Good Luck all, remaining more positive than ever here....