Member Info for Porky9

@rossannan
Not sure why you have gone out of your way to post this link here and on both ADVFN boards but you have your reasons. How two drugs/treatments work together in a specific trial against lung cancer has zero bearing on whether an LBP can AID, support or cure other forms of cancer or other serious ailments or lifestyle illnesses. You are comparing Apples with Oranges.

It's clear from that specific trial pairing of Lenvima with Keytrada although it helped reduce lung cancer it didn't cure it/ extend life. Side effects were also significant. The thing is, I guess this really is the holly grail of trying to cure cancer per se that Merck are trying out. We are talking practically one of the worst forms of cancer you can have here with Lung Cancer where life span is very limited to start with. Its bloody awful frankly.

In relation to our specific trial combing our LBP product MRx0518 with Keytruda® it will be interesting to see if it supports here or indeed against other cancer forms or not.

“Immune checkpoint inhibitor therapies have provided a significant step forward in the toolbox in the fight against cancer. Unfortunately, the outlook for lung cancer patients still remains grim however progress is being made. Meanwhile:-

European Commission Approves LENVIMA® (lenvatinib) Plus KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) as First-Line Treatment for Adult Patients With Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma;-

This approval last week was Based on Results From CLEAR/KEYNOTE-581 Trial Demonstrating LENVIMA Plus KEYTRUDA Significantly Reduced the Risk of Disease Progression or Death by 61%, With a Median Progression-Free Survival of Nearly Two Years Versus Nine Months for the alternative treatments on the market.

So its clear to me that, although one line of treatment may not be as effective for one form of cancer it can be highly effective in other forms.

However, turning to 4D we are concerned here ONLY with LBPs and how effective they are. This is what 4d specialise in, this is the focus. One massive positive with LBPs is there are NO side effects from them hence its likely that using MRx0518 in a trial with Keytruda can only add advantage to the process but we will see soon how effective that specific line is.

Where LBP comes into it's own is that its looking like they can clearly AID and improve most situations and in some potentially help totally cure them all together.

As i see it the shorters are now on borrowed time. They have done well with the support of Steven selling to suppress the share price on the brilliant Blautix data update. They won't fair so well on the next updates. We have updates in four other fields about to drop. Whilst some investors don't do any research and shorter's rely on that, a good number do.

@crl123
Not that it matters any, my small top up after 4.00 was 10k
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1469510456746418181/photo/

I am in total shock regarding how ODX has been treated, you couldn't make it up.

The level of incompetence at the DHSC is just truly staggering, i think this now is the tipping point, it has to be. Tweet from @AIMMissionary today:-
https://twitter.com/AIMissionary/status/1469438897667117056
Neale Hanvey MP, yet again taking the case up

In the last instalment; Neale accused the government of neglect to UK companies whilst pushing a policy of buying chinese tests despite telling the public that government was creating a Buy British policy. I actually watched the debate and the reply directly from Bojo where he effectively told Neale he was quite incorrect and that businesses were being supported and he had numerous deals going ahead making that happen. A plain outright lie.

Indirectly, this ludicrous situation at ODX is going to help our cause. It so so utterly ridiculous that it cant possibly stand up in a court of law. Its going to take a bit of time but our case, ODX, Abingdon need to go to court and be heard. Ultimately common sense has to prevail here.

I actually thought that once Jim Bethell was out of the DHSC it was going to materially change. Clearly it hasn't. My view tonight has hardened. Previously, i just thought Novacyt should pursue a 50/50 settlement via the arbitration as a typical business would in dispute in most cases like this. However, i now think they should go for 100%. The ODX situation clearly shows the measure of the idiots we are dealing with.

Finally, i now do wonder if slow accreditation of tests is deliberate to support their chosen companies and previous poor decisions. Ultimately, our situation will right itself. They have gone one step too far with ODX today

@Dave
You make a very fair point and realistically if Duncan made a recommendation to shareholders we would of course most likely accept and support his call. After all he is closest to the business.

See how the next few weeks unfold, its a low volume time now with the festive period approaching but with so much in progress and with so many updates due this is the time to add as far as i'm concerned.

Anyhow, all part of the fun

@Webbo
Responding after close so I can't be accused of ramping / influence.
I have covered the main points, you need to do your own research, my own position is that i added another 10k at this level at 4.00 ish before close. I am VERY confident here.

The LBP advances absolutely blow me away, I consider 4D as a major game changer in this field and its a field that Big Pharma will soon want a slice of. Some such as J&J are already making moves.

I don't think the market fully recognised the significance of yesterdays Blautix update, this was because as the Share Price started to climb Steven sold into it. Then the boards were drowning in shorter's comments. So from an outsiders perspective it looked like it was no big deal when in fact it was. It confirmed that LBP has a material effect - bottom line they bloody work !!

As at today there is a massive disconnect between the SP value and the business value, the SP will catch up. We need practically a 100% rise in the SP JUST to get back to the £1.10 placing level and we will exceed that.

Despite some comments here we are still due before the end of the year:-

MRx0518 + Keytruda®: Phase I/II, Part B initial data, Q4 2021 / Q1 2022
MRx-4DP0004: Phase I/ll asthma, preliminary data, Q4 2021
MRx0518: Phase I pancreatic cancer, preliminary data, Q4 2021
MRx0518: Commence Bavencio® combination study, Q4 2021
Blautix®: Strategy

So every chance of not just further specific updates as above before 31/12 but some game changing updates.

Volumes are low as its that time of year and the share price affected more so by Steven selling but that is about to change and as i posted earlier, by my calculation he is down to 6.5% now already imo and there are shorts in play that will need buying back for about half that. Hence, I believe we will see a material uplift shortly especially if one of the funds or Merck increase or just plain retail like what they see. The SP will rally hard.

Oh and i cant rule out a takeover approach either, seriously BLP is hot and its about to get hotter. Thats my call
GL

@Levs
The cash burn in H1 was £2.3m they had £4.7m left
Cash will be down at best to £3.5m to end of this month
DHSC have issued a demand for £2.5m and ODX want to enter into an expensive legal dispute which is understandable but they are cant afford it as i see it. The company is practically trading insolvent.
Could DHSC issue a winding up order for non payment?
Without doing a placement i don't see a way out of this?
DHSC have royally shafted them. So much for buy British....

Other Big Pharma Investments in the LBP space that i'm currently aware of:-

Johnson and Johnson
Takeda (Japan)
Pfizer

And of course Merck

Will be others but not fully researched them. I would be surprised if AZN or GSK are not also monitoring the sector

@Phil
Unfortunately, I'm of the same view

Every chance Merck will take it out before we see full real potential here. That's business, i would not be surprised if they are already in off record exploration discussions prior to a bid. They also have access to trial data so they are well placed to make the first move.

Lets face it, LBP's work bottom line. Yesterdays Blauxtix update confirms same. 4D has patents covering practically the entire sector. It's mcap today thank's to Steven and associated shorter's is down to a pathetic 100m, practically half the placing valuation. This makes them incredibly vulnerable.

Why bother to agree a licensing deal just for Blautix when you can buy the entire company in all of the verticals for not much more, if you were CEO at Merck its a no brainer.

The end of year forward plan might not be what we are expecting....

Time will tell, good luck whatever your call

Guys,

I'm speechless ,what a total fc'king disgrace. I am genuinely, genuinely in total solidarity with all shareholders shafted here as its similar to the canning i took on Novacyt also as a result of the DHSC.

I do not blame Colin here, i appreciate some want the guys head on a spike but come on what can he do? The government come calling in desperation, you want to help. Colin is an honest decent guy.

DHSC even issue a contract to him for 374m, they advance him money and equipment to scale up facilities and meanwhile that c@nt Jim Bethall , behind colins back, who frankly should be doing 25years hard labour as far as im concerned for cronyism was doing dam deals with the chinese. That's the reality.

To be asked now to repay the loan, jezee, who do these people think they are..... they have ruined the business. Its a total bloody disgrace and of course because the DHSC bs'tards are not accountable to anyone they can go into lengthy legal disputes using public money - this is really outrageous

Utterly disgusted

I think it’s a certain bet that the selling this last week is Steven continuing to offload. It’s in the region of about 250k a day, it’s as irritating as hell, but it is what it is.

By my calculation his next TR1 to close of play today would reduce him to about 6.5%. We should see that shortly or with delays it could be next week.

The shorts meanwhile that need closing are at about 2.5% and that doesn’t allow for any would be amateur chancers, other connected parties to steven knowing his position and also joining the shorting party. They will all need closing shortly.
Of course, the main issue with @StayShort’S dastardly plan is that we can’t be certain Steven is going for total capitulation and selling 100%. BUT even if that call is right, we are moving ever closer to the tipping point where Steven is fully out, shorts needing to buy back in to cover positions and we have three more updates THIS MONTH that could create buying interest and make that difficult.

Of course, the other elephant in the room is Funds buying, but moreover Merck increasing on the back of the positive data. A number of funds tend to make changes and take new positions at the turn of the year so that could well be on the horizon here.

Also, when funds are buying or shorts trying to close you find its NT NT for retail to buy 4D, certainly you can’t buy anything of any size, you get locked out whilst the Share Price rallies forward. It can become a nightmare and far worse for shorters who can’t close larger short positions.

I am probably wrong, WTFDIK but it could well be one of those situations where the pressure builds, updates drop and the SP completely re-rates in one major move. I can see that happening, the market has not absorbed the significance of yesterdays RNS. It proves to me that LBP’s per sai work, not just this one product line. We are on the brink of an explosion here Imo into the next big biotech expansion area.

For that reason, I’m holding firm here and other positions I’m reducing or closing before the new year I’m adding here, I’m viewing the current depressed share price as a golden opportunity.

GLA

@Phil
Thanks for that, one heck of a hit chasing a one trick pony. I see his problem.

We just needs funds to make a move now, or retail to wake up to how big this is. As you say, updates on some of the other trials shortly but based on the Blautix update this really is an amazing area to be invested in.

I genuinely think LBPs could potentially be as big as our use of antibiotics, this really is a gamechanger as far as i'm concerned. Appreciate the SP isn't reflecting that yet but it just sure has to follow at some point....

Cont... 4/4

The data so far suggests that Blautix works as proposed on both a microbiological and a clinical level and it is primed to progress to the next stage of development.

So, to sum up: -
- Blautix progressing well
- Blautix targeting Crohn's in development
- Multiple other conditions in which leveraging Blautix may be beneficial
- In house capability for commercial scale production

So, the bottom line is EVERYTHING about Blautix frankly is positive.

Yes, the share price here is materially out of step with the value proposition and it’s a matter of time before that corrects.
But moreover, this is just ONE product line at 4D, yet this one line alone is worth many multiples of our current market cap.

It’s a crazy position Share Holders are in here. If we didn’t have this situation with Steven Olivia selling the share price would be materially higher now Imo. The SP going down today on this update, was a total farce, yes there was some retail selling on news but there was more buying, the price went down purely because of Olivia selling its that simple.

Shortly that selling should finish and when it does the shorts will also close Imo. Ultimately, I do believe the share price will move up materially its just a waiting game. Let’s make no mistake here, despite some comments, the Blautix update was a real step forward.

I’m looking forward to the next four updates because its going to get stronger from here Imo.

GLA

Pork’s

Cont…. 3/4

6. Reduced levels of Blautia found in ilio-anal pouch inflammation (Surgery for colorectal cancer and IBD) and in liver cirrhosis.
- Role in modulating T cell immune activity
- Significantly reduced Bl. abundance in Crohn's disease patients

In the Oct 2020 reported BHT-II-002: -
Phase II randomized study to assess clinical activity in patients with IBS-C, IBS-D and IBS-M (mixed) we had 358 patients showing Overall improvement in bowel habit across both subtypes

Blautix is the first therapy for IBS-M due to the response seen in both IBS-C and IBS-D subtypes and this recent data analyses confirms an improved response that the initial data had suggested

"Further analysis of the data has revealed strong and statistically significant activity on the key symptom of bowel habit, a potential approvable primary endpoint per regulatory guidelines."

Today, microbiota analysis from this trial was released and presented at Gastro 2021 and confirmed that Treatment with Blautix lead to structural changes in the gut microbiota and that these Changes did not occur in placebo groups

“As a result, Blautix is an exciting novel treatment option for IBS patients. Its activity across multiple subtypes, further demonstrated with today’s data, is particularly remarkable.”

Cont....

Cont.… 2/4

Blautia is a relatively newly identified genus (group) of bacteria found in the intestines and faeces of mammals.
- 20 known species of Blautia
- Composition and changes in the Blautia sp are related to age, geography, diet, genotype, health and disease states.

New technology (High throughput sequencing - 16S RNA gene sequencing) has allowed identification of this species which were previously classified incorrectly (Clostridia sp. or Ruminococcus sp.)

Research of course is emerging about the cool things that Blautia can do:

1. Bacteriostatic effects against VRE (Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus) without affecting other commensals (healthy gut population)

2. Intestinal microbiota plays a role in the development of obesity + related diseases:

3. Abundance of Blautia negatively correlated with visceral fat accumulation in Japanese subjects (i.e., more Blautia ~ less fat)

4. Reduced Blautia in microbiota from obese children and diabetic children compared to healthy controls

5. In bone marrow transplant patients (often life saving treatment for Leukaemia/Lymphoma/Myeloma), increased microbiota diversity and abundance of blautia was associated with a reduction in lethal GvHD (Where transplanted donor cells attack the host)

Cont.....

1/4

The Blautix product update was the first of five updates scheduled by 4D and was incredibly encouraging, in fact in my opinion excellent.

The only negative was that we are waiting on FDA approval for Blautix but let’s be realistic, we have been going through a major pandemic it’s hardly surprising they have a backlog. The product clearly has an Incredible safety profile, and the evidence of efficacy means that realistically the FDA should have no issues so it’s just a tick box exercise Imo and this will update as part of the course shortly.

Do remember as well that they could only submit the FDA application part once they had all the trial data in recently, so FDA haven’t had that long to process it anyhow. These things take time.

As I previously stated, had the update said Blautix didn’t work, different conversation but quite the contrary, it not only works but it doesn’t have any of the side effects current treatments on the market have. I would class it as a total game changer in this space frankly and we are talking a 2bn annual marketplace. - just incredible.

Compliments of Roy Bash on Twitter I repost the following key points about Blautix: -

Blautix = Blautia Hydrogenotrophica
- 4Ds single strain live biotherapeutic product (LBP)
- Capsule form
- Manufactured in-house with processes unique to 4D
- Patent coverage to 2036 covering US, Europe & Japan.

Cont.......

Not sure i agree, i don't buy the tax boll@x, just a greedy c@nt who evidently doesn't give a crap about the shareholder base. Just plain and simple profit taking.
He had a bulk of stock as part of that woodford deal at an average of 50p i understand and is selling a chunk or all of it, no longer care, into the market for profit. Its that simple.
Its a shame that we don't have some Funds that want to move in and take new positions.
Its worse than a rights issue at least you have a fixed timeline with that. The constant drip feeding into the market. Everytime i add say 20k of stock it gets taken out by his Auto sells. It's also another reason why the shorts haven't closed yet because they know he is still selling hence continual down pressure on the share price. Bloody sick of it.

The only positive is that once he has sold we can finally see the back of him.

By my very rough calculation i recon he is down towards 6.5% already having sold another 250k today. The shorts are in at about 2.5% in total so on a positive note, we are not far off before we can move forward.

In the meantime we are putting up with it BUT imo it's a real shame as the SP has tried to move forward three times now and each time he sells into it without giving us even half a chance for the SP to recover.

GLA

Not sure i agree, just a greedy c@nt who evidently doesn't give a crap about the shareholder base.
Just plain and simple profit taking.
He had a bulk of stock as part of that woodford deal at an average of 50p i understand and is selling a chunk or all of it, no longer care, into the market for profit. Its that simple.
Its a shame that we don't have some Funds that want to move in and take new positions.
The only positive is that once he has sold we can finally see the back of him.

@Sang
As you have sold, move on.
Concerned that a lower entry point won't happen now... Jeeze

As i posted, if the RNS had said that LBP had made no difference it would be a different conversation. If anyone wants to sell on that news, crack on with that. The news is bloody brilliant and further, we have numerous other updates to follow but based on today alone, it proves how effective LBPs are.

To be frank, i'm now starting to believe that the next move will be by Merck to take them out. This is the time to strike, come end of Q1 its going to get a heck of a lot more expensive imo.

GLA

OF course he sold, that's why he is de-ramping it.
But it matters not, the RNS confirms the success that's the reality. If Merck were selling my view would be different but they are not. They are still active and supporting.
Whilst they are in and I'm adding.
This is a volume lull before Christmas, hence the shorts trying to squeeze but for me its proven. Had todays RNS said that it didn't work and there was no difference between this and the placebo different conversation
GL

Just Blautix on its own is in a sector for IBS expected to grow to 2bn by 2026 and as stated today "Blautix could provide a significant solution to address the high unmet needs of millions of patients globally with IBS"

But this is NOT just about the IBS sector, its proof of concept that LBP works, 4D have patents in practically EVERY field from Diabetes, Asthma to Cancer Tumours as far as i'm concerned it's potentially the next holly grail of big pharma.

You can say im ramping with that statement but its how i see it, i genuinely can see LBP tablets becoming like the next antibiotic - its that big.

As at today i genuinely couldn't care less about the share price, it can only go north from here by end of Q1 we will be multiples of where we are now, unless Merck strike early and that is a ticking time bomb as far as i'm concerned. Seriously, if i was Merck i would be in talks now. Total no brainer especially whilst its this ridiculously cheap.

The SP needs to rise 90% just to get to the placing rate....

GLA que sera sera

You best sell Sang, run for the hills mate...makes sense.