Member Info for Porky9

@Startbright
Arr yes but don't forget we still have Terrific Thursday and FOMO Friday to come :)
Take Care
Pork's

@Starbright
I was asked to tone it down a bit, so i didn't start one

But of course @Oriens is right, it's just a shame that these shorting vultures will try and do that. Would be nice if Novacyt just caught them out with a mid day RNS or something so its no so predicable when news will land.

Meanwhile, its just a tug of war isn't it, some are dumb and hang onto the US comment that a lock down wont be required yet meanwhile infection spreads. Closer to home France is back in a bloody mess.

GL

Scientific advisers are bracing themselves for hundreds of UK cases of the Omicron Covid variant to be confirmed in the next week or so
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/29/uk-scientific-advisers-brace-confirmed-omicron-covid-cases

"Omicron, is believed to be more transmissible than dominant Covid-19 variants and has the potential to evade vaccines"

Explains why they were looking so worried at 3.00 - What they don't say is more important than what they do say these days.

@RBMInvest
I appreciate you are not a fan of my ultra bullish stance but I acknowledge your perspective of todays events. I have to be honest and say i am mighty p@ssed off that we went from 10%+ to -6% in one trading day.

This being at the backdrop of the CTDA confirmation, Another wave of the pandemic, a government statement confirming PCR tests only for arrivals and possibly more positive media coverage over the weekend than we have had in a lifetime of this business. Its bloody frustrating.

We will see what tomorrow brings, obviously from my perspective its a major buy opportunity on this fall back, so hopefully others will share this same perspective and we will continue the upward trajectory shortly.

GLA

@moniman
Exactly
Meanwhile, its absolutely poetic
Still expecting a mega strong close today, MMs have played this brilliantly
Mind you would rather shake out the bedwetters and traders now then at over 618
It's happening
GLA

Think i make that:-
MMs 3 v Retail 0
Just amazing, Why are Retail so fickle??
It's mind blowing....talk about text book
Expect Close Materially Higher
Watch the scramble back and those paying higher to do it... ridiculous
GLA

That's the thing isn't it

I have had 2 AZN Jabs and 1 Pfizer Jab
Whilst i was in the que, guy next to me said, to quote:-
"Sod this for a game of soldiers, I'm not coming back here every six months"

Now say what you like but if that's the attitude from even a small percentage this will result in vaccine protection falling in the UK and potentially a greater spread. An annual jab is one thing, every six month's something else.

Also, think about it. IF Pfizer bring out a new vaccine in March which is what they are saying, I have just had my third one, six months would be May. Whole situation is starting to look ridiculous

Brilliant work from the MM’s so far and its only 10.15....
Round ONE: Good initial shake, drop the bid
Retail with finger on the sell button panic and start selling down we drop 8%
Retail then tries to get back in but oh no its NT NT NT whilst the II Auto Buy a big chunk of the stock

Round TWO: Retail not sold in the first wave but still finger on the sell button think, oh no not missing it this next time, sell sell sell drops back again and guess what
In comes the Auto buys again and funds take out another block of stock
Rinse Repeat

If anyone thinks getting back to £10+ over the next few weeks is going to be easy, think again, you will see more tricks than in a magic show.

Meanwhile: And those that doubt me can take this as a pure 100% typical Porky ramp, I have it on good authority that internally a certain broker is moving to a strong buy rating as its expected the remaining additional products will also be CTDA approved shortly.

Not sure if this means a large government contract is in the pipeline but let’s put it like this, I’m NOT selling at this level, not a chance. So, I’m expecting a further RNS in due course followed by a Broker buy note on the back of it.

Expect a close today materially higher, GLA, Happy hunting....

Any Sells quickly taken up by new Buys
Also so real nice chunky Auto buys so maybe a fund buying also as a hedge
You can't stop a rolling waggon
Looking superb

Technical lines are:-
Lines = 477 / 618 / 732 /847 / 1010 / 1217 / 1272 / 1481 / 1816 …….. 5400 :)

618 next to break. We will do it, GLA

Technical lines are:-
Lines = 477 / 618 / 732 /847 / 1010 / 1217 / 1272 / 1481 / 1816 …….. 5400 :)

Well 477 Broken - TICK
Next Stop 618
GLA

@Sir_digby
So if France expected to open +22c that's about what 18p
So Friday close 435 we are looking at what 453 sound about right
Expecting today to be massive.
GLA

Lets Go...

With the Share Price so oversold and the coverage so strong over the weekend and growing it would not surprise me in the slightest if we blast through the £4.77 line practically at open and climb past the £6.18 line all in one day!!!

We have seen these sorts of gains historically and it can happen again. Remember, the number of shares in issue here is VERY low hence bigger rises as stock is taken up.

Technical lines are:-
Lines = 477 / 618 / 732 /847 / 1010 / 1217 / 1272 / 1481 / 1816 …….. 5400 :)

GLA

And just think of the impact when we release our 10 min PCR Test.... because that is anytime now...

@StarBright
Sorry but there is FA anyone can tell me about this company and its product range that i don't already know. I know the entire history, the business, the risks the benefits the pros the cons the entire f'cking lot. Call me arrogant, I do not care. Call me ramper, i do not care.

Best Post today goes to Wilson63 at 14.35 says it all - That is EXACTLY how it is.

Shirt worn, Read, washed, worn again and washed again

Trying to get caught in minor detail is a fools errand. IF it were critical to the success here of the Share Price, you would not see stocks like Avacta going to nearly a billion valuation last year with FA revenue. Sentiment frankly is MORE important than fundamentals. At the moment we have positive sentiment in Spades. Long time coming granted but its here hence, 300 posts yesterday and 3000 trades Friday and 156 posts on a Sunday already yet its only four and the market is closed.

The fundamentals here are rock solid and back up the SP rising significantly but, the market couldn't give a flying cr@p anyway, it really couldn't, IF it did the company Share Price wouldn't be this far under its fundamental value in the first place.

So lets celebrate the positives; they have confirmed they are ONE of ONLY SEVEN tests accredited and approved and on the CTDA register. Recognised globally by leading public health bodies, including the US FDA1, alongside long term agreements with both UNICEF and the World Health Organization.

In addition, they continue to engage with the UK Health Security Agency, they are under a 3bn framework deal to directly supply the NHS and moreover; the PM later Friday confirms that from Monday EVERY person entering the UK will need a PCR test, NOT a crappy chinese LFT Test, a PCR Test and that's what we do best.

The world is also going into yet another dam Covid wave, so selling products against the backdrop of that really is like shooting fish in a bloody barrel.

My position is so bullish we could well see an absolute monster of a day tomorrow like +70% or something ridiculous because we are coming from such a low oversold base point. That's how i see it. I don't think there is a media that hasn't picked up on our news Friday everyone knows about Novacyt and buying volume will be high tomorrow against a low number of shares in issue and that will result in only one outcome.

Everything else really isn't worth discussing, DHSC, 3 gene 2 gene, etc. Jezz we are doing over £100m revenue, that part isn't recognised in the mcap valuation yet frankly.

See you north of £10 shortly, GL

Not an issue, but into weakness along the way
I wouldn't be surprised if we opened 30p higher from kick off with demand being so high....
Going to be a mad week imo.....

@RBMInvest
I would worry yourself, the Assay's will do just fine...

From Monday all UK arrivals need a PCR Test
Not only are we ONE of only SEVEN approved accredited tests in the UK
Just let that sink in
ONE of ONLY seven

We can already detect the new potential VOC and Novaacyt have confirmed same:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1464204025344241664

Great for UK Sales
Fantastic for Worldwide Confidence in Novacyt

Get in....

@crl123
It's a tough one isn't it because you can only do so much research into the company itself.
You can't know what others are thinking or doing. Some factors are just outside your control.
I don't like the fact that we have a private individual fund with so much control that has or is reducing? I hope they hare now settled. But that position will get diluted later anyhow as new funds buy in once more data facts are known.
In terms of Retail until you hold 3% its not a factor, so what i do say or anyone else does doesn't make a blinding difference does it really?
Unless you get massive positive momentum like we are seeing currently on NCYT and that's driven by market conditions and news, then retail make little difference.
Now that will of course change here. Once updates land sentiment will quickly change and we will have 300 posts here not 7 so its just a waiting game. Then retail will make a difference and any selling absorbed.
In the meantime we will see how events unfold
GLA

Moreover, loving the fact that the sentiment is so so high now that the old style shorter / de-ramp messages here to encourage retail to sell to feed a grubby short are just lost in the positive momentum. They previously had massive impact when just a few posts but 300 messages on a Saturday is going some. We broke 3000 trades on Friday, haven't seen that in ages.

Fck em, if anyone is daft enough to try and short they will have their work cut out next week because this is being picked up all over media and chat sites and the world and his uncle wants to buy in, any sell offs or chunky shorts placed will just be seen as a buying opportunity

GLA - In for a cracking week...

I wouldn't paint the picture quite as bleak as that

This is a Biotech area in High demand and 4D have a heck of a lot of Patents in this filed. Merck would not be on board and neither would Oxford Finance have so much risk exposure if it was such a lemon.

Nasdaq investors are feckle, just like many AIM Investors but on a bigger scale, they follow trends. IF 4D put out some positive data tomorrow the world and his uncle would be piling in here big time, AIM Investors would be falling over themselves to buy in and likewise same across the pond.

BUT its the data updates that are going to change this position. That's what we need. Until then the stock will remain highly volatile .

In addition when i last did the analysis with specific reference to Stevens TR1s this was my VERY rough calculation:-

19 August TR1 Notice (SP Range 83 to 78.5)
Transaction Date: 18th August
SELL - .69% = 1,242,000 shares @ 83p = Return lets call it £1m Back
Reduces to 10.98% from 11.67%

16 September TR1 Notice
Transaction Date: 13th September (SP Range 80 to 73)
SELL - .98% = 1,764,000 shares @ 80p = Return lets call it £1.4m back
Reduces to 9.91% from 10.98%

19th November TR1 Notice
Transaction Date: 19th November (SP Range 77.2 to 69.4)
SELL – 1.08% = 1,944,000 shares @ 75p = return lets call it £1.4m back again
Reduces to 8.83% from 9.91%

So, as i commented we had about 250k worth a day last week, so are we going see another TR1 next week confirming another couple of million shares sold to generate another £1.4m back. An even bigger dump down to where he wants to be OR does he just want out?

Am i calling this wrong and its just a short? Has he already finished selling at the last TR1 and this is just other funds adjusting?

As far as I'm concerned, this is the ONLY factor i'm concerned about with this stock. Everything else i just love. The issue is when markets are nervous and volumes are low this sort of selling has greater impact. With big news out and retail buying you probably wouldn't notice it so much.

GLA

Ok you can love me or hate me for this post but its currently how I see it and I’m open to debate the point if anyone sees it differently. I hope they do frankly....

Firstly; I want to declare that I have a decent position here so It’s in my vested interest for the share price to climb and I am still VERY confident of that over the longer term.

I added to my position as the share price started to climb but sold those additions due to the fact that every time I added it was sold into and it was starting to royally p@ss me off. As a result I am now just holding. Not adding.

I wont lie, I had considered dumping my entire holding with the view that I may be able to buy back cheaper later in January but with so many updates due at any moment I can’t risk that. I believe that we should get at least the Asthma data in before the year end, no guarantees it could be delayed but I’m going by the timelines they issued. The big data read out is in Q1 and I deffo want to ready for that one.

Anyhow, to see what I’m on about, I have spent a few hours on Friday doing detailed analysis on the trading patterns and its clear as day to me we have still have an ongoing sustained seller. To prove the point just look at the trades on Friday. Strip out all the Ordinary retail buys and sells, ignore those, just focus on the A Auto trades as they are typically your funds and II holders.

What you see is either:-

A) a run of Auto Buys of low amounts followed by a run of Auto sells that add up to a higher amount
B) a run of Auto Buys of low amounts followed by one chunky Auto sell of a higher amount
C) a run of Retail Buys of mixed amounts say 20ks worth then Auto dump 25k and sell into it.

This has occurred EVERY day last week without exception and since the TR1 that Steven issued last Friday. By my rough calculation its about 250k a day value.

Now on twitter a couple of posters think its shorts here and I hope they are right but we only have two declared shorts and they are both under .50 so either they are increasing which we will know shortly OR Steven is still reducing in which case a further TR1 when he is done or another fund selling. As long as Merck don’t sell I’m happy.

Now should this continue and the SP drift further to something ridiculous like 45p or something, IF the selling has stopped by that point I might start adding again BUT until then whoever is selling is welcome to it. From a risk reward ratio, I think the business is sound, it’s the share ownership base I don’t like excepting Merck, I don’t like the fact that Steven controls such a big chunk of the company.

I just hope the company can get some decent data out and blow these sellers or shorts away and new retail and fresh funds move in to mix the ownership table up.

GLA