Member Info for Porky9

@spbhoy
Well the NASDAQ is up to +5.34%

@spbhoy
I do hear you. Steven selling a chunk as the SP was recovering nicely was a kick in the teeth and bloody annoying but we are where we are now. With his TR1 issued normally that's at the end of the cycle but as you say could be a reason why new investors are nervous.
Clearly on L2 today has been driven 100% by Auto sells. Not sure what the retail BUY/SELL ratio looks like but i bet we are slightly ahead on Retail Buys.
There is some Auto Buying going on but dragged back by the auto sells. This move in the last 20 mins is a bloody joke. Again, not driven by retail this is all in the hands of the MMs - they have total control

Sooner news updates here the bloody better frankly
GLA

You would think we would be absolutely flying today following the sell off, buyers getting in cheap whilst the share price is depressed.

Funny thing isn't it, people would rather invest as the price climbs much higher and the stock becomes more expensive than take the time to properly look at the fundamentals here in relation to the market cap and quickly calculate the two are just miles apart and what a screaming buy this is at this level.

Cracking tweet from @Loop Marvel highlighting the data sets due for release.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Loop_marvel/status/1463162870447972359

Matter of time... GLA

One swallow doesn't make a summer but good to see the stock off to a flying start on the NASDAQ from open.
Now trading + 4.73%

@Lukin
Brilliant, i just tweeted it, hopefully warm the ****les of our heart whilst we are all being patient
Take Care

@crl123
I wouldn't rule anything out but there is plenty of stock on the BID, MMs are currently more than happy to take stock off you at these levels, retail are not selling.
Meanwhile, Buying volume s slow and low on the reverse.
As i say from a risk/reward perspective it looks to me that downside is pence, upside stratospheric once those updates land. See how events go but i have no reason to doubt that they wont update within those time lines specified
Time will tell

As a side, I just realised that the MMs have driven the price that far down now that the mcap sits as at today at £116m
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/4/4d-pharma-plc-ordinary-0.25p

I mean that's just farcical isn't it?

Meanwhile we have major partnership and Merck as a major shareholder... amazing

GLA

@Soder
May i ask where you see the full detailed register, is it on a specific trading platform?
Thanks in advance
Pork's

Today this will just come down to fund movements and Auto trades.
As far as i can see Retail are not selling no matter how hard the MMs try. Yes a few light trades but no real volume.
Why would you sell if you have come this far and why crystalise a loss with so much news due?

Ultimately if a shorts taken it has to be brought back. When the updates start to land, share price rockets

Risk / Reward: Downside i think is a few pence, upside is stratospheric

See how it goes.

@Sangijuelas1
Brilliant post highlighting exactly what this is all about
GLA

Thanks @ StayShort
It would be poetic justice if an update landed or even other news, new FD or partner deal or maybe even Merck increasing anything positive frankly so that you bottom chasers miss the boat.

Oh well can but hope...I don’t see ever ever lows myself, we bounced off the 64 line and retail are not going to be selling at this level, not with so much news due, this is just down to how much mms want to manipulate with funds and Auto trades.

In the meantime it’s just patience and adding as funds allow

GLA

EdC
I understand where your coming from, let's face it the Retail trading has been fairly light today, some selling and buying but nothing of any real substance. Most Retail are more than happy to wait now for the update's to land. I can't see anyone wanting to sell at this level this low, it would be capitulation of a position for sure.

With the placing at £1.10 and so many in at averages much higher, no retail would be taking profit at this level that's for sure. I'm still adding on these dips and the MM's will no doubt continue the game.

The sells have all been Auto trades all bloody day today. Don't know if its Steven, funds or just plain manipulation such as a fund selling down stock expecting more bored retail to sell and buying back later, who knows? But that's the game isn't it. see how this week ends.

Sooner we do get updates from 4D the better, would give shareholders a boost for sure.

GLA

MMs have flushed all the retail sellers out, let them get on with it...
Retail are buying and Auto trade sells have been selling actively so either fund or Steven sold a chunk, short position or other manipulation, who knows.
I am still buying into the dip, I will chase it down to 1 pence if i have to.... It is what it is...

For sure a data update would draw a line under this, would love something to drop later today or tomorrow but it never works out like that...

GLA

Merck currently own 8.3m shares or 4.65 of the share capital:-
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/DDDD/holding-s-in-company/14913516

When this position was taken it was at circa £1.35
The placing rate for this stock was at £1.10

With the share price depressed despite significant advances being made makes you wonder if Merck will make a move here?

These next data updates due I believe will be fairly significant. Certainly the data out of AZN and China in this field is VERY encouraging as such I'm banking on our data also being incredible and the stock seeing a significant re-rate as a result.

That's really what all this hinges on now, the short term SP volatility being fairly insignificant in the bigger picture. Time will tell i guess.

GLA

Right on the support line
Early sells out the way, loads of buys flowing
One swallow doesn't make a summer but long may it continue... Can the Bulls take control today?
With up to five update due any moment, just one would do us....
GLA

At the end of the day 4D are world leaders in advancing LBP's. This is a hugely exciting new area of medicine.
Companies such as GSK are only just exploring this space with millions in new investments.
Traders wont care much for that BUT Investors will, just a matter of time
GLA

I must agree that on the AIM these days it Is becoming like one big giant Casino absolutely ridiculous. Traders playing on technical’s for direction rather than fundamentals.

It’s just how it is.

BULL ARGUMENT: At 69.4p we have almost 60% upside JUST to get back to the placing rate. News is imminent which could be a game changer. Current Buying price represents buying opportunity of a lifetime when news lands, Live Biotherapeutic Products LBP’s could prove to be the biggest biotech breakthrough known to man this decade. Upside potential stratospheric.

TECHNICALS: WE closed at 69.40p, The MA 50 line is at 68.17p which is also the Support line.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1462123130101637126/photo/1
So, its 50/50, not much use to anyone, either the Bulls will have it and we will bounce off the line or the Bears will have it and try and drag it back down.

FUNDAMENTALS: 70p represents £125m mcap which considering all the areas they are involved with is ridiculously low. The low SP of the year was 56p the high £1.53
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/4/4d-pharma-plc-ordinary-0.25p

BEAR ARGUMENT: At 70p downward pressure following Steven’s sale, scare some retail into selling maybe, go short, MMs shake the tree and try and drive the price back down to 60p.

Some holders may consider selling some to hopefully get back in cheaper but that can be a dangerous game due to the volatility being so high with this stock, especially if a buying rush starts and they suspend trading whilst they rerate which can happen as we witnessed a couple of weeks back and you cant buy back in at the rate you wanted.

Without stating the obvious, what Investors need ideally is the first update landing, a fund buying or even better Merck adding – something like that to really boost us. You never know, it will happen it’s just all about the timing.

GLA

@GtIV
Of course, there is: -

Scenario 3 - company releases good news – Share price rallies or simply MM’s step change the SP and re-rate the stock as a result.

Merck at that point just decide to acquire the entire share capital and acquire 4D completely rather than enter into prolonged licensing talks/deals. It would likely be cheaper to do that.

They currently own 4.61 of the company. There is a reason for that. I think it shows possible intention. They wouldn’t normally own a chunk of any company they were just going to licence from.

Currently there is significant investment going into development of Live Biotherapeutic Products LBP’s. It’s potentially a future line that many of the drug companies will want to expand into and 4D are right up there, I believe that 4D could well become hot property.

I added some detail on the six LBPs to a tweet here: -
https://mobile.twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1457102122047229958/photo/1

Potentially we could be seeing these supplements designed to minimise risk of autism, asthma, diabetes, eczema, in fact all the lifestyle diseases of the modern world. This is huge.

Bigger picture is that the long term is good but SP journey short term remains Volatile but that’s AIM and penny shares for you

GLA

@crl123
I appreciate that it can be more difficult to be positive when sitting on a paper loss from 94p average BUT the business is fundamentally sound and has a materially low market cap of 125m, but I accept fundamentals appear to be less important these days compared to sentiment on what is now fast becoming the Casino that is AIM. But there is a lot here to be positive about. Also, at 94p you are still in at 15 discount to those in at the 1.10 placement.

My point regarding the position after Steven sold in August was that the in the following five days the share price actually rallied from 78p low to 94p. That was what happened. Investors clearly considered it a buying opportunity; they didn’t rush for the exit. I accept it drifted back after then but that was due to other factors namely profit takers from the increase to 94p and also, we don’t know if Richard Griffiths was offloading the rest of his holding, then and of course we were entering a no news period hence no immediacy to hold stock.

Position currently is that we have potentially up to five updates due at any moment. As soon as an update lands as long as it continues the same positive vein the share price should go materially higher. So if you are confident in the future of this business then this short term share price volatility wont be a problem. Just lock them away and forget about them.

For Investors it’s a no brainer to add at these levels. For traders the call they have to make is if its worth selling to try and buy back cheaper? looking at the technical’s they might be thinking can I get 60p or 64p? if timed right? The danger with that is if an intra day RNS lands or an update comes on say Tuesday and they miss it, this stock will gap up. Also, if there is simply a run on buying. Trying to buy blocks of stock becomes VERY problematic, the MMs can even halt trading for short periods where there is a rush on the stock, which happened on the 64p bounce, But that’s the gamble.

Finally, IMO there was fund buying going on prior to Steven Selling, that could continue next week, time will tell. Every investor will have their own objectives. Currently the SP is low, and we need those updates, they will come its just when?

GL

180m shares in issue / mcap £ 125m at Friday close/ 69.4p
Calculation very rough approximate/ best case with estimates/ rounding: -

In some ways Steven has been fairly unlucky with his timings: -

25/26 March TR1 Notices
Steven Oliveira – Transaction Date: 22nd March (SP Range: £1.37 to £1.55 High)
BUY + 2.08% = ADD of 3,744,000 shares @ £1.37 range = Cost calls it circa £5m Buy
Increases to 11.67% from 9.59% (Originally reported as 12.14% but later corrected)

Unfortunately, Smaller holder Richard Griffiths sold into that Buy the next day he had 5.51% at that point, remember the placing was at £1.10, and reduced to under 3% you don’t need to issue TR1 notices under 3%. I suspect that this holder sold out entirely over those days based on the sell volumes at the time and the SP dropped back to the placing rate of £1.10 as a result.
Cut and run job with your profits from the placing.

The correction TR1 was posted on 12th April referring to that same transaction, no trade, it just clarified the percentage holding were actually increased to 11.67% from 9.59%.

19 August TR1 Notice (SP Range 83 to 78.5)
Transaction Date: 18th August
SELL - .69% = 1,242,000 shares @ 83p = Return lets call it £1m Back
Reduces to 10.98% from 11.67%

16 September TR1 Notice
Transaction Date: 13th September (SP Range 80 to 73)
SELL - .98% = 1,764,000 shares @ 80p = Return lets call it £1.4m back
Reduces to 9.91% from 10.98%

19th November TR1 Notice
Transaction Date: 19th November (SP Range 77.2 to 69.4)
SELL – 1.08% = 1,944,000 shares @ 75p = return lets call it £1.4m back again
Reduces to 8.83% from 9.91%

So, to sum up, his position is now back to close to what it was prior to March but the bloke is down about £1m for his trouble by my rough estimate. Just unlucky with his timing I guess but as I say you don’t know his portfolio position. He may of needed the cash to bridge something else you just don't know, these things can happen.

We can only guess here but if i was in his position i would now want the share to do well to ensure a solid return and more than cover that short term loss. If he was wanting out and was selling more he would of done so. As i see it, he took back another £1.4m of cash that's all.

We move on, what we need is some fresh II interest, lets hope Jeffries has created some new interest.

GLA

OK dust ourselves down, lets discuss the days events here. No interest in personal squabble’s this is purely down to business.

The good news: There is no change to the business proposition, it’s the same today as it was yesterday, its absolutely sound as far as we know. Still on track to update this quarter on progress, presentations at Jeffries I’m hearing was absolutely superb and so for me I have no concerns on that front whatsoever which is the main thing. The investment is sound and I’m not selling.

The bad news: It’s evidently clear that the share price fall today was driven by the chunk of stock that distressed investor Steven Oliveira offloaded into the market. The investor being dubbed a distressed seller due to selling assets at less than purchased for whatever reason. I can’t comment on rumours of his other investments going south hence the need to sell, but people have their reasons. My following Post is the transaction analysis relating to this.

The only comment I really want to make is that it can’t have been an easy call for him. With so much on the horizon here and Merck’s involvement now is not the right time to sell. On a positive his holding is now only slightly under where he was in March before he added, it’s a good holding and if I was in his position, I would be trying to hold onto that.

Now, we can’t know exactly what prices shares were traded at today. The only comment I can make is that when you want to buy or sell quantity you NEVER get the best prices there is always a premium for buying and a premium for selling. The best you can do is ask your broker to work the deal for you.

Typically, you buy or sell and once everything is completed you then issue your TR1. As I result Imo the transaction is completed, and we move forward from here.

Yes, we could get further individuals selling on Monday, then again it represents a great buying opportunity to get in.
Incidentally: - after his August 18th Sell the share price actually went up over the following 5 trading days from 78p low to 94p high. After his September sell, we drifted to 69p which is where we are now.

Nobody can predict what investors do but personally I’m using the price weakness to ADD and let’s see how next week goes.
Every day is another day closer to updates. Despite this transaction I still believe we will get past that £1.80, nothing has changed on the business side which is what’s important here.

Good luck what ever your call.

Pork’s