Member Info for Porky9

4D Pharma Q&A: the potential of gut bacteria in cancer and beyond. If you have not yet read this interview with CEO Duncan Peyton from a few weeks back regarding the potential of this technology you should
This really is the future ??????????
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/4d-pharma-potential-gut-bacteria-cancer-beyond/

@Webbo502
You can assume what you like. I can tell you my intention was 100% to remain not only invested but to build on it. Target well north of OB's £2.36 . The 201 deal RNS knocked me for six. I still hold here a good holding but not adding until I have the clarity I need. Sorry.
@HeresHopin and @Sithavenue
The answer @IronMighty gave is clear on relation to 1. I have been well researched into the market place and deal values in the market, I'm sorry but the deal on 201 looks materially undervalued to me and i would like to know more detail as to why they went that route. I do not know why that was. If either of you can answer any of my questions 2-9 I would be VERY impressed. SH are still in the dark here but hopefully further clarity will be provided shortly.
@The Darkknights
Really. Hope your insult makes you feel better.
Keep your head in the sand if you prefer, i like to know exactly what I'm backing especially if I'm investing larger capital sums but good look to you if you prefer not to know.
@PM2022
I agree we should be north of 80p but we are not because too much is uncertain at the moment. Once its known then more informed decisions can be taken.
GLA

For total transparency I still own 500,000 stock at AVE 24p. I am glad the company are doing a Q & A on the 25th it may just clear up a heck of a lot of uncertainty created. The deal announcement having recently crashed the share price.

These are the real questions that need answering IMO, if they are to attract HNW private investors, family offices and funds and I hope they are included in the presentation.

1. Why the secrecy around this US start up? Why no company website? Why can’t information be found?.

2. Who exactly is Dr Ken Sorensen, only guy found was this science investment banker:- https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt1199supp1_33.pdf?origin=ppub if this is the wrong guy can you identify who is? We should know who is leading the advancement of 201 to make an informed decision if they have the skills to advance it towards market or not.

3. If the company are raising capital stateside where’s the prospectus? Can current Valirx shareholders take part? Are we excluded?

4. How many staff are proposed to be joining the Stateside Start up? Who exactly is advancing 201 or is it Valirx UK going to be continuing to do the bulk of the work from the UK?

5. How much capital is the US Start up trying to raise? Will it have adequate funding to make milestone payments if they are later achieved?

6. You mention payment of $2.2m USD (c£1.64M?) before end of 2023 what exactly is due to come in before end of this year? It’s clear its going to be tight?

7. Your current cash burn stated is £350k a quarter, you are due to run out of funds circa end of March. Further in your RNS you state, “there is no guarantee that this Licence Agreement will be executed or that it will generate material revenues within the expected timeframe or at all” Do you have a plan B in place should this deal not complete in time or adequate funds not reach you in time to continue trading?

8. Are Valirx Directors or connected parties’ shareholders of this New US venture? Is this some cheeky back door deal to move the assets to a stateside vehicle? Investors are unclear why a start up that is yet to be funded, is taking on 201 assets and not a longer established Biotech?

9. You locked the company into an exclusive period blocking any other party from a counter bid can you explain why this was in the best interests of Valirx Shareholders? Was this a condition of the deal? Were ANY other parties interested that might be prepared to make a counter offer?

The above are not going to be easy questions to cover off in one session but as shareholders I believe we need to know. Suzy has confirmed a desire for total transparency I hope we can finally get that shortly regarding this deal.

In the meantime, if anyone has any points from their own research, or something i have missed here, I would welcome your views. Especially Adam who has been majorly supportive and knows this space better than anyone.

Pork's

There has been accumulation here for the last two or three days, i expected a TR1 to land tonight after close yet nothing.
If someone goes over 3% they have to issue a TR1

So either its several different funds all adding so its spread and none are tripping the next percentage level to declare OR a TR1 is going to land Monday.

Time will tell i guess

GLA

I think Green Energy stocks are really in favour at the moment.

@Reece mentioned earlier about Powerhouse which has gone up today like we did yesterday. Its funny i was on the run on that one last year from 3p to 7p but when i did the DD not meaning to sound rude but it was like one guy and drawing of a plan and nothing much else with a really inflated mcap, kind of been floating around going nowhere for years.

Just shows you, I hope it can be made commercial as we need more green industry and anything that can reduce plastic waste is great in my book.

Anyhow, Of the two green businesses i think Sabien is the better bet as we are already delivering revenue and the recent deal here is just incredible. Our mcap is only 4m v powerhouse which is 234m.

enough room for both in the market but i think we lost investment today possibly to powerhouse on the news but as the dust settles the weekend hopefully both will get exposure and we get a good run next week with investors backing both green companies.

GLA

Well the Jefferies London Conference event is next Thursday and Friday and lets face it this event is for II benefit.

So are we going to get data sets released next week to support presentations at the event?

Got a chance hasn't it?

We will see this move to £1.80 in three steps and i am still standing by first week of December

I don't see us getting to £10, sorry, if Merck are watching this i would be starting to accumulate and take it out sooner than later.

They could make a move now and take this out under £3 unless a bidding war started, which is more than possible. I would strike whilst retail are vulnerable frankly, no brainer.

This is now a megga HOT acquisition target. The mcap at this 80p level today currently stands at £140 m - that is a petty cash transaction to Merck, watch this space.

And who is accumulating here? is it multiple funds or one big buyer, no TR1 issued yet but the stock is going somewhere.

I'm looking for a TR1 before close or maybe after close - we will see, maybe sparks are going to fly this weekend who knows.

Pork's

Also, currently on L2:-

You can only get very low volume at the 29.5p ask, the other MMs that will offer bigger chunks are starting at 32p meanwhile there are three on the bid happy to take stock off you at between 29 and 29.5p

So lets see where we are this time next week, also today could still end as major Blue yet

Pork's

Hoping the media will report on this and the share tip sheets pick it up

This really is the future isn't it, converting plastic waste crap that is currently going into landfill into Green Hydrogen and Synthetic Oil. Bring it on

The more you research this business the stronger the investment proposition frankly as i say.

When you do the calculation its 20m Plastic to Hydrogen. If they taken on the plant upgrade they could by my calculation be adding on up to 75m for waste plastic to synthetic oil.

Market cap after this tree shake at 30p is 4.3m

Yes that's 4 point 3 million not 43m mcap - the market has just not yet absorbed the reality of this yet.

Buying shares at this level is a total no brainer imo

GLA

Go Away you bloody troll
I am not only holding here but adding to my position.
No Dump what so ever on my part only ADD
All that's happened is MMs have marked it down less than two pence to suck retail into selling that haven't done any homework
The deal published is transformative

More than happy to debate the pros and cons of this stock and my valuation post.

I stand by the fact that the Green Hydrogen production alone on the current deal is potentially north of 20m a year. This makes the share a screaming buy at these levels...

if you think my calculation is out please tell me? Market are waking up to this stock for sure, once they do the calculations they will see how significant this deal is.

GLA

Here's to a positive end of week trading session today
Some positive further exposure over the weekend and into a positive Monday
Another day closer to updates
Bring it on
GLA

Don't cross ramp here please @Reece
I wouldn't go near Powerhouse, he just had a map and plans and nothing else. hasn't earnt a penny in years, First version of his tech will be lucky to go live until well into 2023.

Sabien on the other hand is a totally different play, its also revenue producing already and the current deal takes it to a whole new level.

Massive upside

Zac Mir Traders Cafe charting perspective that we should retest the 50p line

Certainly doesn't take into account the vast numbers here in relation to the market cap but then again the market doesn't always pick up on the fundamental side quickly. Still all the same 50p takes us in the right direction.

Expecting us to move up significantly from here

GLA

No, don't agree and if anyone that fickle want's to sell at this level let them go i say, the short term really doesn't matter, ... Cream always rises to the top and this is finally happening.

Also, I am absolutely convinced we have a fund or commercial interest taking a position, I'm expecting a TR1 before close tomorrow. If we don't get one then i have no idea but the stock is going somewhere for sure.

And that **** drop at 3.30 was clearly designed to knock out some stop losses and get stock in

However, despite this do we give a stuff, this is one hell of a Biotech and buying at this level just feels like a gift.

I still have a price target of £1.80 before the end of the first week of December, i think the run is similar to the one August 20 and at some point this will be let go but if i have to wait i have to wait, not going anywhere anyhow. The potential here is stratospheric.

See where we are this time next week and the week after but one thing is certain, there is currently MAJOR investments going into this sector and imo the value here is increasing by the day, share price just hasn't caught up yet

Really happy with investing here

GLA

I Would really welcome ANYONE here to look at my calculation and take it apart because i'm convinced we are talking 20m here a year from that one line.

Then they also add:-

"In addition, the HOT include the option for Proton to install a 24 tonnes/day recycling plant on its site in Saskatchewan using the COF process licenced to Sabien to convert plastic waste to synthetic oil."

Well a plant in Denmark run by Quantafuel converts 19,000 Tonnes of waste plastic into 15 million litres of synthetic oil a year see:-
https://investindk.com/insights/converting-plastic-waste-to-synthetic-fuels-quantafuel-is-now-operating-at-industrial-scale

Now i don't know what the wholesale cost of buying synthetic oil is but but retail its a minimum of five quid a litre so that's got to be worth probably more than the hydrogen deal p.a

This really is the future isn't it,,,,, converting plastic waste crap that is currently going into landfill into a Green Hydrogen and synthetic oil. Bring it on......

More i review this deal the more i like it frankly...

GLA

@Taverham
Very quick and very funny.
Reality is the major dispute came, the CEO fcking lied to us all, got his bonus and stuffed shareholders. But that's for the NCYT board not here. Some things are hidden from the Retail Investor. We are NOT on a level playing field.

Double, triple checked this:-

AIM - WINNERS
Sabien Technology Group PLC, up 31% at 31.79 pence, 12-month range 15.00p-61.20p. The boiler efficiency products provider says it has signed heads of terms with Proton Technologies Canada Inc in relation to a hydrogen processing licence within UK territories. Sabien will be producing 20 tonnes of hydrogen per day, generated using Proton's technology.

WILL PRODUCE 20 METRIC TONNES OF HYDROGEN PER DAY

It's crystal clear to me, I genuinely don't think the market has worked this out yet, the deal is worth annual revenue of 20 million before the other lines.

As Investors catch on, its going absolutely fly here. A fund may just swoop in first.

Bloody brilliant, GLA

Have a think about this:-

The DOE estimates hydrogen from renewable energy, known as green hydrogen, currently costs about $5/kg.

They do want to reduce the costs over the net ten years but that’s the current position stateside: -
https://ieefa.org/us-department-of-energy-announces-green-hydrogen-cost-cutting-goal/

In another report it was quoting $6 USD Per KG

So, If Sabien produce the 20 tonnes a day under the licence terms this means that: -

1 tonne = 1,000 KG

So, 1 tonne would be worth using the $5 USD Rate approximately $5,000 USD

So, 20 tonnes a day is 20 x $5,000 = $100,000 to the limit. They have a provision to convert more by future agreement but lets stick with the current agreement.

If they produced for 5 days in a week that would be $500,000 of product a week of Green Hydrogen produced hence, during the year that is 52 x $500,000 = 26 million USD.

USD Conversion to sterling is circa 0.75

So, this means that this deal is worth in the region of call it £ 20m p.a on the current terms Just for this one product line before extending or looking at the businesses other lines. The gross margins are in the region of 95% which is high.

As a result, IMO as production starts the business mcap should continue to re-rate and even on a fairly light PE Ratio I would expect the value to move towards somewhere at least close to at £ 50m or £ 4.50 a share if not higher….

And this doesn’t allow for the install of the 24 tonnes/day recycling plant on its site in Saskatchewan using the COF process licenced to convert plastic waste to synthetic oil which would come in on top.

Now that does look ridiculously far fetched value when you see us here at 32p but whichever way you cut this, it doesn’t take Einstein to work out that the Share Price needs to be materially higher than it is currently and should rerate that’s for sure.

It’s an ADD for me, certainly at this level but I’m interested in others’ views here? What’s missing because it looks doable to me? Not overnight but a process is a process and that’s where it’s heading.

Cheers

Pork’s

With the presentation further investors will want to get involved.
Then we have tomorrows buyers and possible further coverage over the weekend regarding the deal

This afternoon also introduces Proton, its only been a few hours since the deal was announced.

Different stock but i remember ARB just recently at 9p and it went up something like 40% first day of the re-rate then similar again a day later then 60% up to a couple of quid. The MMs shaking out the weak hands along the way.

Today we are seeing the start of the re-rate as this moves further towards being a green hydrogen play...

Very positive and the SP will climb materially higher. Mcap is microscopic that will change now.

GLA