Member Info for pickedpeck

I added 100,000 at about 28p yesterday. Don't see much risk, even with no deal that's still a depressed valuation.

If you were cynical you would think the drop yesterday on, what on the surface at least seems to be moderately bad news that was already priced in, was engineered to panic PIs into selling and allow the various shorts an opportunity to get out before a deal is done.

There were a lot of posts that were either exaggerated or just not true here yesterday, it was an amazingly effective play.

If that's right we should see some bounce back over the next few trading days.

If we think there is going to be a deal, and it seems very likely there is, then its equally sure it won't be at 29p as 230p. Everyone knows that, so now hopefully that was the last of the manipulation games and we can get to near the fair price.

... How many people sold at exactly 44p and didn't announce it until today :)

In my opinion the RNS is nowhere near as bad as being priced in here now. The damage being confined to the Projects business is good news, it's not enterprise wide, and the statements regarding past and future cash flow generation are also reassuring.

I don't see anything here to put Sidara off, in fact I think this RNS makes a deal more likely rather than less. The honesty now present, along with the contrite attitude, bodes well for due diligence where hopefully there are no more skeletons in the closet. Lenders would be similarly reassured that the business is now financially understandable and has had a thorough audit after the CFO debacle.

So yep, still holding what I bought, I didn't sell at 44, I wish I had as this is clearly an opportunity to buy back in lower, however I'm not over worried as I still expect a good return on what I held and the extra shares I buy today will be a bonus.

I still see a deal in the region of 70p a share, I guess at least we can now be free of all the £2 plus madness.

Just thinking out loud so don't all start throwing rocks!

We know that Sidara and WG still have stuff to talk about or there would be no need for an extension.

The FT reported that Sidara wanted to see the annual report and the Deloitte review before making a decision.

We know that the approach has not been described as 'unsolicited' , implying precisely the opposite.

We also know Sidara routinely grows through acquisition rather than organically, and there are multiple synergies with their existing collective with WG.

We can't guess the price any better than Sidara until the Deloitte report is out in the open. Anyone guessing before that could be wildly wrong.

The market has held the SP around 40p or so for a while now. It's hard to understand the rationale for that, but opposing buys and sells, shorts and longs are holding it place with PIs just at the noise level as it fluctuates either way.

The board have lost most if not all credibility with the major shareholders over the price collapse and CFO debacle. Coming together couldn't look much worse for the executives.

In my opinion then...

Sidara want to buy, WG are incentivised to sell, the question is how much will the former offer and the latter accept.

Based on the range the market is trading in you would think the offer would be 56-60p a share (40% premium to SP)

Based on a (3x EBITDA multiple - debt) you would think it would be 70-75p a share

Based on historic pre collapse valuation you would think 140p a fair price. The value collapse is a fact, that genie is out of the bottle and very difficult to get back in. WG may eventually trade its way out of trouble, but the spectre of PFC is there to sow doubts.

So I think an offer will be made, it will be a lot less than people would wish for, but more than the minimum they would accept given the alternative long and high risk wait.

I still think 70p a share would get it. Sidara would be happy with that price as they saved 70% of the potential cost from a year ago, and the board get an exit mandated by the major shareholders. Right now all the power is with the buyer not the seller.

Are you new to this? It's just an annual share incentive plan, part of normal executive rewards package.

Maybe actually read the RNS? :

(i) Purchase of partnership shares under the Wood Share Incentive Plan; and

(ii) Acquisition of matching shares under the Wood Share Incentive Plan

All the directors are in a closed period barring them from buying or selling shares based on the risk of insider trading

James,

My whole point was its not the Wood board that are selling, its the major shareholders who will have lost most if not all trust in the board. I agree the board would not want to sell at that price, but I don't think it is their choice.

Like as if I care about some randomer filtering me because I disagree with their baseless optimism. If you can't cope with different opinions to yours then you should just talk to yourself.

If it was going to be a lot higher then it would have leaked out by now. The market is not so stupid to keep the price 40p ish if its going to sell for 3x that.

For the record I understand fair value, and how engineering companies are valued, from doing it rather than reading about it.

I think it is very likely (but not definite) a bid will be made, and unlike last year I think it is in both the board's interest and Sidara's that they don't mess around going backwards and forwards on price too many times. Sidara are an acquisitive company, it says an awful lot about how much they want Wood to have come back again, its not like they don't already know what they are buying. However...

The board know they effed up and consequently will be under enormous shareholder pressure to reach a deal (shareholders drove the WG board back to Sidara @230p last year don't forget). If the board don't agree then I can see the major shareholders rebelling and ousting them. They have definitely been left with egg all over everything for not taking Sidara's 230p when it was offered last year.

Sidara are therefore in a very strong position and will know it. I did some trivial calcs based on the current finances, if I was in Sidara's position I would be bidding somewhere in the range of 75p and playing chicken a bit with the WG board to see if they will take it. The board may think that's a bid in the nuts so try and hold out for more, but under pressure to sell and only one buyer at the table they may have to accept it, or at least a relatively modest increase to that.

I know everyone is dreaming of more, but that ship sailed last year, especially given where the sp has been since November. Long term before the last bid and recent financial shambles the price has wavered around 150p. I don't think they have any chance at all of getting near that.

I'd take a punt at it closing at about 80p after an initial bid of 70p is pushed back, but with an extension happening whilst everyone sees who blinks first.

SG - Its is what it is. I was on one bid, maybe half this size, where the diligence team was provided by two (well known) consulting firms plus some expensive individuals, the total team directly doing diligence was over 120 people, I guess average billable rate $3000 a day with the expensive individuals double that or even more. Then you have all the back office people, travel, and 'stuff'. You don't have to work long at $500k+ a day to run up a tidy bill.

Just think about the project diversity and geographic business distribution, multi jurisdictional risks and liabilities. Sure you don't have to go to every office anymore, but you do have to know what and where they all are, who does what.

https://www.woodplc.com/company/where-we-operate

Bob, the seller's costs are normally a lot lower than the buyer's, its almost always internal people's time for the vendor rather then external consultants.

I agree, they aren't just playing.

I'm not basing my knowledge here on AI. Been there, done this multiple times in several industry sectors. It all depends on the complexity of the business. A large but simple business is much easier to acquire than a complex multi-faceted consulting and engineering company. Diligence before a bid is intense and expensive, normally with mutliple external consultants in to assess the target as quickly as possible. You can't use your own resources as they are normally busy running your own business, so you hire in expensive third parties to go through the project catalogue and tech estate, quantifying risk and liabilties.

Don't forget that Sidara got to BAFO stage last year after three earlier bids. They spent months on it. I have no problem believing it cost tens of millions.

SG that's not right. The banker's fees alone would have been that. The consultants doing diligence and the internal effort would have been multiples of that. I've been involved in bids costing £20m plus.

Here is a better formatted summary of Sidara's (nee Dar) acquisition history courtesy of AI...

Sidara, formerly known as Dar Group, has built a diversified global collaborative through a series of strategic acquisitions over the past two decades. In 2009, the group acquired Ross & Baruzzini, laying the foundation for its expansion into specialist engineering services. This was followed by the integration of firms such as Rumsey Engineers and Cobalt Engineering to broaden its technical expertise.

Over the years, additional acquisitions—like Elementa Consulting and Macro—enhanced its consulting and design capabilities, while later moves to incorporate DVS and Mitchell Planning strengthened its offerings in security and planning. The group further expanded its portfolio by adding partners from the Integral Group family, including CAGE, EDI Ltd., and Umow Lai, with Genesis Planning, COMgroup, and Prleks joining in 2019. These moves culminated in a rebranding under the Introba banner in 2022.

In 2023, Sidara bolstered its digital capabilities with the acquisition of CopperTree Analytics. Most recently, in 2024, the addition of C&I Engineering Solutions further diversified the portfolio and reinforced its presence in the engineering and consulting sector.

While no specific financial figures for these deals have been disclosed, Sidara’s strategic acquisitions have transformed it into a robust global network of specialist firms, well-positioned to tackle large-scale, complex engineering challenges worldwide.

Just for those that don't necessarily know Sidara, the Collaborative’s portfolio has grown through a series of strategic acquisitions over roughly the past 20 years. Around 14 acquisition events are listed on their timeline, for example in 2009 Sidara (then Dar Group) acquired Ross & Baruzzari; over the following years, companies such as Rumsey Engineers, Cobalt Engineering, Elementa Consulting, Macro, DVS, Mitchell Planning, CAGE, EDI, Umow Lai, COMgroup, Genesis Planning, and Prleks were added to the group. More recently, in 2023 the group acquired CopperTree Analytics to bolster its digital expertise.

They are habitual acquirers taking a FIFTH bite at Wood Group. last year they made four offers, all rejected, before WG board went back and said 'yeah, maybe' to offer number 4 only for Sidara themselves to say 'No, we are backing out'.

This is not some random polite enquiry or fishing expedition.

Each of the players here has their own priorities.

Sidara want the business or would not have come back. The board of WG. probably don't want to sell as they belive they can turn it round, but know the market has run out if patience with them. Major shareholders want to derisk.

So Sidara cash offer has to be in the ball park the board would have quickly rejected it out of hand.

If the board ultimately reject their bid, then Sidara could go hostile, believing shareholders would likely accept the bid the board reject

If the board accept the bid then it will be at a higher value to today, but no one knows exactly where. I don't believe personally it will be in 3digit share price territory.

The big risk is Sidara choose to walk away, deciding not to bid at any price. That would make the Sidara board look crazy, why waste time twice on an acquisition only to not bid?

No other bidders have emerged so far, but maybe they are hanging fire to see if the Sidara bid gets a board recommendation or not. Hostile bidding may bring some competitors out.

So assuming Sidara are highly probable to continue with their bid, either as recommended or hostile, it all comes down to the influence of the big shareholders and what they will take for the business. If there remains only one bid on the table I suspect most would take it, given the alternative is trusting an already failing management team to tune the business around, and watch the share price plummet again whilst they try.

In those circumstances, I believe the board will recommend a Sidara bid, the price will be lower than everyone wishes for, but will be quickly accepted by those that matter.

Looks pretty good to me. I think if it wasn't for recession fears and potential impact on crude prices this would lead to a decent jump in sp.

On the basis of your points I sold my full holding of DEC a few weeks ago, at the point it became obvious Trump was serious about tariffs, as it happens I was in the process of selling down when the Maverick deal was announced. I now hold no shares or any other investment vehicles in DEC or other US based companies.

Until the current presidency and its economic aftermath is over I won't be risking investing in anything based in the US. IMHO their debt market, wider economy, and political stability are all now carrying risks comparable to a regime in Africa.

I strongly suspect the rapid drop in a number of UK or joint listed US companies is as much related to this than any actions by the individual companies, DEC included.

Good luck with your investments, I think we may all be about to need it. For my part I have spread my investments widely across a variety of UK, Asian and European funds related to relatively inflation proof income, particularly renewable energy generation and long term property funds.

3xEBITDA = $1380m (normalish price range)

5xEBITDA = $2300m (absolute max with competitive bidding)

Debt excluding leases $690m

So if you took a 3x EBITDA valuation less debt valuation would be $700m, against a current market cap of $388m.

$700m translates as a share price of around 75p.

I know it's a trivial valuation and there are dozens of factors in play. But the basis of valuation is the profit multiple less or plus the NAV. You can add order backlog, good will, IP and more, but ultimately it's about what's it cost to get the current income level.

Says the one that calls them self VIP, or king of the jungle.

In the case of obsessing with shorts I was merely excluding myself. Tracking trades, short and long positions, is absolutely pointless on this at the moment.

you lot obsessing with what shorters are doing are missing how the market works. shorts are often hedge covers for long positions. there are also a ton of cfds on this too that are contributing to price movements. it's not a simple case of reported buys and sells driving the price.

all the stuff about my mate angus that drinks in ma camerons says they are in the know is all *******s too.

there will be a deal, if not with sidara then with another bidder. wg. by not rejecting the sidara bid out of hand effectively put up the for sale sign. sidara are in pole position but others may see the opportunity to grab all that lovely ebitda in a uk business as a compelling deal, particularly after the starmer - trump trade deal bromance yesterday.

final price will be what the sellers accept from the highest bidder. there will be twists and turns along the way a while yet.