Member Info for pickedpeck

Its a buy and a sell, matched trade back to back negotiated trade, two transactions entered 3 seconds apart for the same amount. Broker negotiates the deal for a fee, but no spread.

I thought most traders would know what these trades are?

Tab hair,

Its a little pessimistic on costs and also double counts a few things.

Why do you assume both an operating loss and management costs? The H1 revenue for the continuing business was $10.4m, that would have delivered an operating profit of around $3-5m including the management costs. I don't see why you assume a swing to an operating loss.

My broadly similar calculation gets 16-19.5p as the final total, but it's a moot point until we know the format of the distribution.

Am I missing something? £30m mkt cap vs a max cash position of $72.5m , or £56.8m . Surely fees and taxes and any failure to grab staged payments won't eat up £27m?

Hmm. They have only sold just over 1% of their 4%, it's like having a new shorter if they are going to continue dumping their stock.

They got the stock at a valuation way below £10, it makes sense for them to continue selling. They are below 3% now so we will not get any notifications, just see the price pressure for a couple of weeks.

I guess they could have sold earlier but were happy for the share price to ride up, their lock in was likely 3 months.

Shame, but they have stalled momentum for the next few weeks.

Well, they told us there would be news in the fourth quarter. Given Xmas effectively wipes a week out, we are talking sometime in the next two weeks for some sort of update.

I just bought some more, quite a lot more in fact. The trades are not showing yet which is interesting, but stock was immediately available which I was a bit surprised by.

Just a thought on margins. Firstly most of the WG business units report EBITD at about 8% in the half year accounts.

8% is neither the project or contract margin or reflective of pass throughs, it is the net number including corporate overheads but before finance charges, tax, and depreciation, but in most cases excluding any amortisation.

To achieve 8% business unit margin, and around the same figure applies across the company, project margins have to be much higher.

What they are set at is a little bit irrelevant as the EBIT for the whole unit is what management operate to and have as their targets.

But having said that, and from experience designing, selling, and contracting large scale projects, GROSS project margin could be set as high as 50%+. My own company (in the industry) had a competitive average project margin target of 56%, but WG. may be more commoditised and have little high margin IP included.

Still talk of 18-22% as bid is nonsense if they are achieving business unit net margin of 8%, they would have almost no corporate functions to get that. I could believe a project gross margin somewhere in the 40s, particularly for new account work.

Pass throughs would be agreed with each client, and be between 0% with admin and other costs directly chargeable at T&M (V rare) and 10% all in depending on the nature of the project. They are pretty much never at 1%, even handling the payments costs more than that.

I've not worked for WG but have both supplied and competed with them for other companies.

Its a contradictory position. Either find veined gold (at bonanza grades) or poorer grades in bulk which remain economic due to gold pricing. Why talk about both?

No JORC means no volume of gold estimate, that makes it hard to invest in.

By comparison here is a gold mine with thin vein deposits.

https://www.dragonmining.com/projects/kaapelinkulma-gold-mine/

Here is their report on measured, indicated and inferred resources

https://www.dragonmining.com/projects/resources-and-reserves/

The JORC standard allows for reporting of veined deposits, it is absolutely normal to do so.

https://www.jorc.org/docs/JORC_code_2012.pdf

Someone will be having a crappy christmas as an ex Qube employee I suspect. Whoever is running their energy portfolio must be looking for a box to pack their stuff in.

Oh and Marshall Wace may be geniuses, but Qube's track record is not great. They are the biggest short on DEC and have just sat through a 50% plus rise from the bottom and are redder than a red thing on their position.

Marshall Wace, Systematica and Qube all increased their short positions in the last month, likeley betting on a combined short attack pushing WG out of the 250 and open to further price suppression.

They clearly got that decision wrong as we sit here today. I'd say that epitomises poor judgement.

If they really believe the business has some fundamental flaws, and looking at what we know at the moment it seems it doesn't, then they would have been far better shorting at a higher price than right at the bottom of the curve.

Not a holder here anymore, but keeping a watching eye as both a local and a large ex holder.

What George told you in that video was two key points:

1. Its economic without finding bonanza grades, ok is good enough.

2. We are not going to produce any sort of JORC estimate of mineralisation

Now why would he tell you those things?

For those that don't know what JORC is:

JORC stands for the Joint Ore Reserves Committee, which is the mining industry’s official code for reporting exploration results, mineral resources, and ore reserves. It is an internationally recognized standard that ensures transparency, consistency, and accuracy in reporting mineral assets.

So right, they are not aiming for consistency, accuracy, and transparency in reporting their exploration results. You are not going to get any estimate as shareholders or other investors as to how much gold is in the mine.

Why try and make softer sounding noises about the grades they have found? "Noo, we don't need those bonanza grades i was telling you about, they were somewhere else anyway, but at these prices we can make money on any old crap grades, but we are not telling you how much crap grade ore there is because even if we know we don't want you to."

They are going to find nuggety gold quartz veins at some point unless they stop being able to raise money to keep looking. At a mkt cap of £3m it must be getting harder to raise using equity.

I don't see an urgent reason to buy back in yet.

BP will not take over WG. That's nonsense and a complete non starter for too many reasons to list.

However WG. in recovery at this market cap is absolutely open to offers from elsewhere. Any one of the previous suitors would be interested in a bargain basement deal, and plenty of others must also be sniffing around.

Nope, don't think going into or dropping out of the indexes is RNS material.

However the Exchange Indices are general newsworthy, so let me help you with your eyesight issue:

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/DEC/top-news-burberry-demoted-from-ftse-100-with-hiscox-on-the-way-in-sr15u5qjhfrruef.html

He has gone on holiday with RRB, he will be back if the share price reverses to tell us he told us so, again.

Of course they could both really have been associated with one of the shorters, it's not unheard of to run a negative soucla media campaign to support a short position.

I obviously meant the drop beyond the 22p or so attributable to the dividend. We are down more than double that amount now.

As for the change in dividend strategy, by the time they announced the change yield was over 30% and totally anomalous. Having a 30% yield hand made any ii support the price, and had in fact attracted shorters.

The drop is nothing to do with xd, do you lot not follow LNG prices at all? Sharp pull back after UK trading hours yesterday going in to thanksgiving. 3/25 and 4/25 contracts now back well below $3 based on a reduced expected draw down, or more likely traders closing positions ahead of the holiday weekend.

The change in dividend strategy was because a large dividend absolutely didn't work in holding the price up, and only private investors were wedded to it and upset/under the bus when it changed. The main investors, the big institutional holders, want a stronger capital return based on more favourable tax treatment of capital gains vs income and almost certainly forced the dividend cut .

So the valuation, like every other (E)PC is now linked to EV and ROCE not yield. That's why all the acquisitions have a PV estimated rate associated with them, to demonstrate that they enhance the company's core PV.

I thought about trading the divi, but in the end have held as I think we will be back at just below 1300 resistance pretty quickly, the psychological barrier doesn't necessarily shift with the xd.

But we will see, I don't have a crystal ball!

I am not a holder here but know wood group well from time in the industry. I was surprised to see the share price down here to say the least given the company contracts and revenue streams.

However...

I am an investor in Diversified Energy Co, (DEC), another company which has bene subject to short attacks by Qube and others. Qube are short on the oil and gas sector, and seem to look for companies with perceived emotive weaknesses. The short attack on DEC took them down from 2000p a share to around 800p, forced them out of the FTSE250 also, and led to a wider sell off.

The recent turn in the US LNG market has meant a near 50% recovery for DEC and the shorts are now exiting pretty rapidly, but Qube have bene one of the more stubborn shorters.

The oil and gas cycle turnsz new contracts come and margin returns on a 4 year cycle. The summer just passed was the bottom of the cycle, margins squeezed, EPCs struggling and some going out of business or being bought up.

A Trump presidency also means a return to the investment part of the cycle is imminent, I would expect a sharp up tick in workoversx maintenance uplift, and general contracticing activity in the new year and accelerating well into 2026.

I see WG dropping out of the 250 as a huge buying opportunity. The figures looked OK from the last results, EBIT positive, and with the macro environment changing recovery is likely.

However you may also see the shirts double down on their attack, so the bottom may be lower still. It's all about timing. Wood group is very unlikely to go under, and at these prices may turn out to be a bit of a sitting duck for an offer.

Time it right and there is a tidy amount to be made.

Jim, if it's not wood group then it will be someone else DEC are well inside the top 200 of the 250 let alone just scraping in.

LNG on a roll in the US, colder winter and impending lift of export restrictions should send the HH price back into the $4 + bracket pretty quickly.

Bridgwater still heading down, they will be below 0.5% soon.

Last ones out are going to get burned, you'd wonder why they would be holding out now.

Still likely 7% outstanding given the smaller shorts, their exit could see another 40% + rise.