Member Info for pickedpeck

Harchris,

There seems to be zero valuation associated with the other prospects also? It looks like the one mine actively funds the others, potentially with no external funds necessary

Thanks catchingpidgeons. It does seem weird that the valuation looks close to one year of free cash flow.

Hmm... Noisy lot aren't you. Despite all your vociferous help I managed to find enough information to convince myself to buy a few more, the Oakbloke in particular doing some decent analysis.

No news and the trades have dried up too. Just added my last slice, have enough now and the peck coffers are drained.

Terry, I know to you and me an £8Bn contribution seems a lot, but in GDP terms it's not even pocket change.

The net effect on UK GDP and tax receipts of losing hundreds of companies from London to foreign listings far outstrips it at least 10x.

£1500Bn off where mkt cap should be, with a 20x earnings multiple that would be earnings of around £75Bn, corporation tax £15Bn let alone all that PAYE, Vat etc.

We always benefitted more in trade and soft returns than the hard contribution cost us. Whilst a company exodus is going on how the hell is the government supposed to deliver the GDP growth needed to reduce our national debt? It's an impossible task for any political party, rising national debt, reducing export trade, rising trade defect, company exodus.

I would be the world is shorting the UK right now.

Have a look at this site for the HH futures prices out to 2029.

https://www.baha.com/quickbar/nymex-futures/henry-hub?ts=1733698257696

Current pricing for the second half of this winter remains pretty weak, but next winters prices and beyond have all been pretty consistently rising for the last few weeks.

The futures prices are indicators, the Henry Hub delivery point will not realise the same price as a LNG terminal sale or some off take tap in Appalachia. HH is just a market indicator.

Icecool and whoever the idiot was that started this thread,

A quick look at my posting history should make it obvious I have no connection to any shorters. I've never been short on a stock, not even on a spread, I think it's a game for people with much deeper pockets and less sphincter twitch than me.

I worked in the energy industry, as a supplier and competitor to both WG and Petrofac. They are, or rather were, absolutely comparable businesses in the same market, although WG have diversified more.

PFC is a $2.5Bn (currently) revenue, $8Bn order backlog company with a tiny market cap because it's profits plummeted and debt got out of control. By contrast WG has (currently) just over 2x PFC revenue, a smaller back order book at $6Bn, but 9x the mkt cap. It is absolutely not a corner shop to Tesco comparison.

They have both been FTSE 100 companies.

In fact five years ago the PFC share price was 350p, ten years ago it was 1400p the fall from there to 10p should be a lesson to anyone investing in the energy industry.

Let me say it again, I do not believe WG is going to follow the PFC decline, but the shorts clearly smell something and are continuing to back themselves all the while PIs are lumping money in the other way.

Shorts are sometimes wrong. PIs obviously get things wrong too.

Right now I don't have the information to decide which is which so I am happy to watch from the sidelines pending the outcome of the review.

That's it, you do you.

😁

On the surface this looks an easy buy, but the chart looks like something you would ski down. What's occurring? Why the slide?

The numbers look at first glance somewhat insane here, just a straightforward balance sheet analysis suggests I have missed something fundamental? Obviously Nigeria not the easiest jurisdiction in the world to do business, but is there something else fundamental I am missing?

Looking at the trades today I wouldn't be surprised if the RNS came out in the morning. Virtually no small trades, virtually all multi k buys. Lots of six figure (shares) buys.

Its almost certainly Brexit related but it can't be proven, there is no comparator to what would have happened had we not left. But seeing as the graph turning point is 2016, and Brexit was the most significant even to happen then you have to say the correlation seems very strong.

I think no one wants to open the political warfare can of worms that Brexit turned into. Everything from the 90 days stay in EU countries, to few significant trade agreements, to medicine shortages, the Irish border, to import and export costs, to unbridled non-EU immigration is just sh*t show we now have to deal with.

It is getting increasingly more difficult for even the most hard line Brexiteers to point at the successes. It is virtually impossible to point at one result of Brexit that makes a positive difference daily to ordinary British people.

I guess we will see. I am not hiding behind anything though otherwise I wouldn't be posting.

The knee jerk wasn't the opinion of one institution, everyone else didn't buy up the slack either. There are a lot of burnt fingers on the Petrofac slide from 1500p ten years ago to 10p now, still with 6% short sold.

I like WG, I see them as a potential recovery play as the O&G wheel turns back into the Trump presidency. I genuinely think a bid will come again as soon as uncertainty on contract values is removed, and yes I think the price fall down to 50p was way over done. So I traded in, and am now back out waiting for the update.

Icecool - We just don't know yet, whatever either of us thinks we are at best guessing until the review is published.

What I will say is that I don't think any management team calls for and publicises to the market an external audit unless they think it is necessary. Why incur the reputational damage (of calling for it) to the management team or prompt investor uncertainty if its just a rubber stamp audit exercise? Routine audits happen all the time, and are not worthy of an announcement.

There is no harm in waiting for the outcome in my view. The share price isn't going to jump 25% either way on the day the review is released. If it is good news there will be plenty of time to get in and make a profit.

Since 2016 the LSE has been doing nothing but shrink. £500 Billion lower total market cap and falling despite the FTSE 100 being up around 33% in the same period.

If the mkt cap and FTSE100 index had been in lock step then the current delta would be in the region of £1500 Billion. That's the equivalent market cap that has left London since 2016. The rate of shrinkage barring the covid years has been pretty steady too, and we are definitely still on the down slope.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/324578/market-value-of-companies-on-the-london-stock-exchange/

The number of listed companies in London is even more depressing. Ten years of data looks like a slope you would think twice about skiing down.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/324547/uk-number-of-companies-lse/

It could have happened without Brexit, but 2016 was definitely an inflection point in the charts. Most indicators prior to that were flat or growing (since the big crash in 2008 anyway).

Frankfurt, Paris, and New York have all been consistently growing in the same period.

So, if the numbers are going to come out higher than the current price would we expect to see any leakage related trades before the news release? I know it shouldn't happen, but always does.

The shorts are gambling on two things.

1. Sector wide issues in EPC and Oil and gas more widely. They are short on the whole sector

2. The outcome of the audit is negative leading to a restatement of previous years books, potentially a negative adjustment of asset values, from which there could be other negative consequences around WG debt.

3. I suspect they were also betting on WG dropping out of the FTSE250, but that may be less of an issue.

They are basically betting on WG repeating the Petrofac slide.

The shorts could very well in part be behind the latest pump up exercise, it is far better for them to sell at higher prices if they believe there is an underlying flaw in the company that is yet to come out, they make more money short selling at higher prices.

Marshall Wace were one of the larger shorters of PFC in late 23

For me I want to read what Deloitte say before getting off the fence again, and I also want to be reassured that WG is going to be cash generative in 2025. I do believe the order book has significant value, and the business will find suitors, but not before the Deloitte report is out and any consequences digested.

I like the idea of eclectic cars, where can I get one?

It looks like your lowest estimate is the current price, and the highest 45% up. In terms of risk / reward it's straightforward, little risk potential for a decent reward.

Interesting, still none of my trades showing. They did nudge the price a little I think.

Bigw77 - I agree and also believe that's what the shorts are waiting for.

I also can't imagine Deloitte coming back and saying 'nope, everything is fine, nothing to see here', so it's about timing.

I do believe a bid will eventually come, but when and at what price, and what will happen between the and now?

Just sold, will be on the sidelines waiting for the Deloitte report.