Member Info for pickedpeck

So given this is going to be in two tenders, the odds are that they will offer a lower price on the first tender to see how many shares they can buy at a reduced rate. The choice will be whether to take the tender at a lower price or wait for second. tender. Given the market reaction the first tender price could be 10p.

If they offer 12p then the tender will be oversubscribed and you may only get a part fulfilment on a ratio.

Either way I think the best bet is to hold for the tender rather than sell at market now.

Pickedpeck is pis*ed off about the leakage, amazing way to dribble a company value away. But...

I also don't properly understand the drop to the current 9.4p price. The open tender is using roughly half the total available cash (£16m) for half the mkt cap (at 12p)? The current share price sets the mkt cap at just under £25m, that kind of assumes the second purchase will only have £9m to spend?

So, if in the first tender the company buys £16m of shares at the current market price, then lands the balance as expected of a further £16m then the second tranche would go for a higher price than the first?

"It therefore proposes to undertake an initial tender offer for up to £16 million, circa $20 million in the New Year. This would represent approximately half the Company's current market capitalisation and approximately half the potential total available cash after taking account of reasonably expected costs and liabilities and expected further receipts due from the Disposals (both deferred consideration and projected earn out)."

Seems like over a few months the approximate cash tender of £32m would translate as an average sp of 12.35?

Obviously there is some uncertainty about the amount available for the second tranche, but am I missing something else?

I can see a similar split ratio, 9-10p now, 5-8p later. I think they may hold on to more.

Its getting late for a 4q announcement, they will have to announce and declare a payment effective date in the future, plus organise the payment, unless it is early next week we won't be getting money until new year.

Have to wonder if someone is interested in the cash shell, all very quiet apart from the consistent large block buys that have been going on all week.

Does anyone know how much capex is forecast fir converting the mine from open cast to deep mine? Any production forecasts as the follow the vein?

Life of mine is the obvious concern I guess.

Opening balance at 30th June 2024 $19.4m after $20m in less Eu most transaction costs plus existing cash

Paid out September 2024 ($4.0m) final acquisition payment, balance $15.4m

2nd October 2024 $10m EU, balance $25.4m

13th November 2024 $20m US, balance $45.4m

Initial return to investors? A guess at $35m ?

2nd April 2025 $7.5m EU, Balance $52.9m less initial return to investors and costs

2nd April 2025 Maybe $5m from EU

April 2025 Maybe $10m from US

Maximum final cash position $67.9m, minimum $52.9 less initial return and some additional transition costs

I'm ignoring EBITDA, operating costs, and interest received as we simply don't know what they are, plus rightsizing costs (hopefully minimal). The EU deal costs are baked into the initial cash position, excluding the remaining minimal rightsizing costs. The US deal costs should be lower as it is a smaller deal, there is no tech carve out, and almost all staff will go with the deal. $5m would be pessimistic I think.

Per share

I'd guess the initial return will be i.r.o. $35m given the cash balance should be somewhere up from $40m and a minimal number of staff should remain in the business.

259.23m shares in issue

$35m initial return should be i.r.o. 13.5c per share, or 10.7p

April 25 there should be somewhere between $17.9 and $32.9 less costs, so maybe $13 - $27m left to distribute allowing for $5m of costs.

$13m would be 5c, $27m 11c, or 4p to 8.7p in round numbers.

14.7p minimum to 19.4p maximum?

Large round number buys, but who the hell sells £1.72 worth of shares? I mean it's a market maker trick to generate trades that show the spread whilst making a market, but even so, it's a bizarrely lame small amount.

I've been thinking about the initial return a little, it could be a fair bit larger than 7p, I'll do a soearate thread so everyone can disagree... 😁

Guessing... But...

It is likely there will be the equivalent of an xd for the distribution, the announcement will not be effective the instant it is made.

I would also expect the announcement to indicate not only the first distribution, but also indicate tbe value and timing of subsequent distribution(S).

For example, I can see them announcing a 7p distribution now, followed by a 6p distribution early in the new year with an additional distribution of up to 5p in April.

Do the shares fall to 5p or do they fall to somewhere between 5 and 10p then?

Basically we won't know either the values or distribution method until the announcement is made.

Harchris,

There seems to be zero valuation associated with the other prospects also? It looks like the one mine actively funds the others, potentially with no external funds necessary

Thanks catchingpidgeons. It does seem weird that the valuation looks close to one year of free cash flow.

Hmm... Noisy lot aren't you. Despite all your vociferous help I managed to find enough information to convince myself to buy a few more, the Oakbloke in particular doing some decent analysis.

No news and the trades have dried up too. Just added my last slice, have enough now and the peck coffers are drained.

Terry, I know to you and me an £8Bn contribution seems a lot, but in GDP terms it's not even pocket change.

The net effect on UK GDP and tax receipts of losing hundreds of companies from London to foreign listings far outstrips it at least 10x.

£1500Bn off where mkt cap should be, with a 20x earnings multiple that would be earnings of around £75Bn, corporation tax £15Bn let alone all that PAYE, Vat etc.

We always benefitted more in trade and soft returns than the hard contribution cost us. Whilst a company exodus is going on how the hell is the government supposed to deliver the GDP growth needed to reduce our national debt? It's an impossible task for any political party, rising national debt, reducing export trade, rising trade defect, company exodus.

I would be the world is shorting the UK right now.

Have a look at this site for the HH futures prices out to 2029.

https://www.baha.com/quickbar/nymex-futures/henry-hub?ts=1733698257696

Current pricing for the second half of this winter remains pretty weak, but next winters prices and beyond have all been pretty consistently rising for the last few weeks.

The futures prices are indicators, the Henry Hub delivery point will not realise the same price as a LNG terminal sale or some off take tap in Appalachia. HH is just a market indicator.

Icecool and whoever the idiot was that started this thread,

A quick look at my posting history should make it obvious I have no connection to any shorters. I've never been short on a stock, not even on a spread, I think it's a game for people with much deeper pockets and less sphincter twitch than me.

I worked in the energy industry, as a supplier and competitor to both WG and Petrofac. They are, or rather were, absolutely comparable businesses in the same market, although WG have diversified more.

PFC is a $2.5Bn (currently) revenue, $8Bn order backlog company with a tiny market cap because it's profits plummeted and debt got out of control. By contrast WG has (currently) just over 2x PFC revenue, a smaller back order book at $6Bn, but 9x the mkt cap. It is absolutely not a corner shop to Tesco comparison.

They have both been FTSE 100 companies.

In fact five years ago the PFC share price was 350p, ten years ago it was 1400p the fall from there to 10p should be a lesson to anyone investing in the energy industry.

Let me say it again, I do not believe WG is going to follow the PFC decline, but the shorts clearly smell something and are continuing to back themselves all the while PIs are lumping money in the other way.

Shorts are sometimes wrong. PIs obviously get things wrong too.

Right now I don't have the information to decide which is which so I am happy to watch from the sidelines pending the outcome of the review.

That's it, you do you.

😁

On the surface this looks an easy buy, but the chart looks like something you would ski down. What's occurring? Why the slide?

The numbers look at first glance somewhat insane here, just a straightforward balance sheet analysis suggests I have missed something fundamental? Obviously Nigeria not the easiest jurisdiction in the world to do business, but is there something else fundamental I am missing?

Looking at the trades today I wouldn't be surprised if the RNS came out in the morning. Virtually no small trades, virtually all multi k buys. Lots of six figure (shares) buys.

Its almost certainly Brexit related but it can't be proven, there is no comparator to what would have happened had we not left. But seeing as the graph turning point is 2016, and Brexit was the most significant even to happen then you have to say the correlation seems very strong.

I think no one wants to open the political warfare can of worms that Brexit turned into. Everything from the 90 days stay in EU countries, to few significant trade agreements, to medicine shortages, the Irish border, to import and export costs, to unbridled non-EU immigration is just sh*t show we now have to deal with.

It is getting increasingly more difficult for even the most hard line Brexiteers to point at the successes. It is virtually impossible to point at one result of Brexit that makes a positive difference daily to ordinary British people.

I guess we will see. I am not hiding behind anything though otherwise I wouldn't be posting.

The knee jerk wasn't the opinion of one institution, everyone else didn't buy up the slack either. There are a lot of burnt fingers on the Petrofac slide from 1500p ten years ago to 10p now, still with 6% short sold.

I like WG, I see them as a potential recovery play as the O&G wheel turns back into the Trump presidency. I genuinely think a bid will come again as soon as uncertainty on contract values is removed, and yes I think the price fall down to 50p was way over done. So I traded in, and am now back out waiting for the update.

Icecool - We just don't know yet, whatever either of us thinks we are at best guessing until the review is published.

What I will say is that I don't think any management team calls for and publicises to the market an external audit unless they think it is necessary. Why incur the reputational damage (of calling for it) to the management team or prompt investor uncertainty if its just a rubber stamp audit exercise? Routine audits happen all the time, and are not worthy of an announcement.

There is no harm in waiting for the outcome in my view. The share price isn't going to jump 25% either way on the day the review is released. If it is good news there will be plenty of time to get in and make a profit.