The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Tickets and booing...
What on earth are you on about. The CEO doesn't manage the share price, the wholly irrational market does that. The CEO manages business performance which in the last figures was just fine. A company can continue to generate profit and pay dividends as long as its products and services are in demand. Natural gas is going to be around for a while yet.
Saga,
If that's the level of attention you pay and research you do to your investments I suggest you sell your individual company shares and buy some oeics or general funds where the fund manager will pay attention for you.
Oops. That was meant to say...
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And this in the Grauniad... Europe's reduction last year was at least 40% due to a milder winter
Come on, we are British, we are supposed to like discussing the weather!
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/29/ukraine-war-has-marked-a-turning-point-in-europes-gas-consumption-says-iea
More weather related explanation of the natural gas price :
https://amp.fxempire.com/en/natural-gas-continues-to-attempt-a-bounce/1392585
This will matter a lot more when listed on the NYSE. Here everyone seems oblivious.
What the heck is going on with the trades on this today? All those small trades entered simultaneously is just weird.
Kipper,
I've got some in VOD too, less than here but still a fair bit. Plenty of 8,9,10% plus yields around which even given the interest rates and inflation at the moment is crazy. Total returns on many seem to be above 20%
Hazbeen, xd is quarterly here, next one is 29th Feb but today (30th) is also xd.
I saw a quote once, I can't remember who it was attributed to :
'The stock market is a mechanism for transferring money to the patient from the impatient'
The wider market has all sorts of companies down for no good reason. Now is the time to be putting money in, not only DEC is ridiculously cheap but many other high dividend profitable companies are on crazy prices.
My strategy is simple. Buy when cash is available at any price below 75p. Hold until at least February's dividend, receiving 10% ish return from dividends. The company will be listed in NY on December 11th. I don't think a rerate will be instant, it will be at least two quarters of results before US investors start to pick it up. If the results are as expected and analyst coverage is positive as a result I also expect a share price recovery to around 125p within 12 months, or 2400p as it will be then, that would be a 66% capital gain from my initial purchase price, more from today. My current average is about 73p BTW.
That makes no sense at all.
The price has dropped today by almost exactly the dividend - so far. You do know today is the xd right? It's 9.30am, a bit early to call for the CEO's head.
As posted by Gavster recently, all the actions the company has taken which would normally boost the share price have led to further falls. Buy backs, dividends, profitability, hedged stable income, whatever.
I am not being made a mug of. I got a dividend this morning which is similar to the annual dividend on most of my holdings, except here I get it every quarter. And yes, I did buy more. A lot more.
Clued,
El Nino is a major oscillating pattern of currents in the Pacific Ocean. It happens naturally approximately every 7 years, and sometimes lasts a few months up to 2 years. It causes major changes in the surface temperature of large parts of the Pacific which in turn changes weather patterns around the globe. Some areas get a lot warmer, some get colder.
In particular it has been known to disrupt the jet stream location, the current of air which massively influences the weather in Northern Europe. It generally pushes the jet stream further South meaning Northern Europe gets colder arctic air pulled down.
In North America more or less the opposite happens when there is an El Nino, the Northern states and Canada have a milder wetter winter whilst the Southern US is colder.
In past years that has meant a collapse in demand for natural gas in North America, and a simultaneous spike in demand in Europe. This year North American gas can be exported to Europe to make up for the non availability of Russian gas, softening the effect in North America of depressed pricing.
Basically gas in N America is cheap at the moment because of El Nino, whilst Europe is struggling to find supplies.
In relation to climate change it seems likely that the extra heat energy in the Pacific is going to make this El Nino very strong.
For DEC there are effects shortx medium and long term.
Short term (3 to 6 months) the depression of N American prices will make non-hedged producers really struggle. In the 2015 El Nino many producers went under.
Medium term (6 to 18 months) European demand and the ongoing lack of Russian Gas will mean prices recover quickly. DEC hedges for 2025 and beyond should be very healthy with less suppliers available to meet demand, and some cheap assets to buy up.
Longer term most governments are committed to reducing dependency on natural gas, there will be huge need to properly cap off and retire non economic wells. El Nino will mean more non economic wells in N America and DEC NexLVL business could see demand for services grow pretty fast.
CEO should be measured on business performance not the share price. If they manage to generate the £3.3Bn FCF and reduce debt in the second half then she will have earned her crust.
IMHO the turnaround here lies in the second of the corporate priorities, simplicity. A simplified business focused on core markets and offerings should be simpler for investors to understand and management to operate. If they can divest the difficult market positions and use cash generated to reduce debt then all good. Spain next, would be nice to see that sold and the money used to pay down debt.
Just to add, 2010, that 13 years ago the BBC is quoting, was in the top 10 of El Nino effects in winter. This El Nino is already showing signs it is going to be stronger and longer.
Winter is coming.
BBC News - Coldest November night in 13 years for parts of UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67564025
Just to restate it, an El Nino winter in Europe is normally significantly colder than normal. Europe is already struggling for natural gas supplies, with industrials already making deals with US suppliers.
Natural gas will be in the headlines soon.
Weirdly dropping in the run up to the xd aswell. There is no explaining this other than the market believing the divi can't be held long term and /or fossil fuel business is no longer welcome on LSE.
Mkt cap £19bn, FY24 FCF forecast £3.3Bn.
Am I losing it or is that M&G TR1 a notification of crossing the 5% holding in a foreign company? Surely that means they have been buying while the price has been falling?
It's been a long day and I didn't get much sleep so this isn't making any sense.
I did. I had a bit in pre xd, now have a lot more. Xd usually drops the price by more than the dividend I agree, but sometimes not so hedged my bets a bit.