Member Info for pickedpeck

No idea where this share float is coming from, 1% of the shares in circulation bought in the last two days with hardly any sells. Either there is a huge stock overhang or the MM is asleep at the wheel, I reckon the latter.

Interesting trades today, all the big ones look to be buys but didn't move the price at all. Looks like about 0.7% of the company bought today with what looks like only one medium sized sell. Looks like this is going nowhere until there is some news.

I think it's extremely likely that the company will be sold, it's a question if when and what are the value catalysts that will happen before then.

I changed my small position here today into a large position.

Berdugo joining is the strongest signal for me. You don't hire a guy like that, and he doesn't want to come, just to watch beagles play. He is exactly who you want holding the pen on your side when you are negotiating a licensing deal or thinking about a dual listing. Check his profile and history.

Valuing a micro-cap biotech like Genflow (GENF) requires looking at two distinct worlds: the current "London Micro-cap" reality and the "NASDAQ Longevity" potential.

​A re-rating could be triggered by two separate valuation models: a Licensing Multiple for the dog data and a Pipeline rNPV (risk-adjusted Net Present Value) for the MASH human trials.

​1. The Immediate Floor: Canine Licensing (Q1 2026)

​If the canine trial results are positive, Genflow has stated they intend to "pass the baton" to an Animal Health partner.

​The Comparator: Private companies in this space, such as Loyal for Dogs, have achieved valuations of $425M - $600M in 2024–2025.

​The Valuation Bridge: Even a modest licensing deal for a "world-first" SIRT6 longevity product could involve an upfront payment of $10M–$25M plus royalties.

​The Maths: Genflow’s current market cap is only ~£10M. An upfront payment equal to the company's entire market cap would likely cause a 2x–3x jump almost instantly to reflect the fresh cash on the balance sheet.

​2. The Mid-Term Prize: MASH rNPV (H2 2026)

​The human application for MASH (liver fibrosis) is a $7 Billion - $18 Billion market by 2029–2034.

​Targeting the Gap: While drugs like Rezdiffra are now approved, they focus on early-to-mid stage MASH. Genflow targets advanced fibrosis, where there is a massive therapeutic gap.

​3. The Re-rating: If the €4M grant (approved Jan 28) leads to a successful Phase 1/2 entry, analysts typically value such pipelines at $50M–$150M per asset.

​The Math: If GENF is valued as a "Human Clinical Stage" biotech, the share price would need to reach 10p - 15p just to match its peers in the US.

Initial Success: Canine Data Readout mkt cap leap to £30M - £45M, 6.0p - 9.0p share price

Blue Sky: US Licensing + Nasdaq £100M+ mkt cap, 20p+ share price.

4. The "US Premium" Factor

The Multiplier: A longevity biotech in London trades at 1x - 2x cash/grant value. On the NASDAQ, those same assets often trade at 5x - 10x.

The Berdugo Catalyst: The new Chairman was hired specifically to capture this. If he facilitates a US partnership or a dual-listing, the "London Discount" evaporates. A £10M UK company will eventually be "discovered" by US investors who value similar tech at $100M+.

The bull case for Genflow Biosciences (GENF) is built on a rare combination of "Big Pharma" leadership, validated science (the SIRT6 "Centenarian Gene"), and a series of binary catalysts expected to hit in the very near future.

1. The "Centenarian Gene" (SIRT6)

Unlike biotechs that try to fix one specific disease, Genflow targets aging itself as the root cause.

The Science: They use gene therapy to deliver a specific variant of the SIRT6 gene found in people who live to 100+ (centenarians).

The Mechanism: SIRT6 is essential for DNA repair, telomere maintenance, and metabolic health. By "upregulating" this gene, Genflow aims to slow down the biological clock.

2. Immediate Catalyst: The Canine Trial (GF-1004)

This is the most immediate trigger for building a share position.

The Event: Initial efficacy results for the Dog Aging (GF-1004) study are expected in Q1 2026 (any day now).

The "Win" Condition: If the trial shows a reduction in biological age (via the GRIM methylation clock) and improved muscle mass/strength, it validates the platform in a large mammal.

Commercial Exit: Success here is intended to trigger a licensing deal with a major Animal Health company, providing non-dilutive cash that could dwarf Genflow's current market cap.

3. High-Value Human Pipeline: MASH (GF-1002)

While the dogs are the "proof," the human application for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH) is the "prize."

Funding Secured: On January 28, 2026, a €4M grant was administratively approved to fund the MASH program.

The Gap: Current MASH drugs focus on early-stage disease. Genflow is targeting advanced fibrosis and the prevention of liver cancer (HCC)—a massive unmet need with multi-billion dollar potential.

4. The "US Pivot" & Leadership

The appointment of Gad Berdugo as Chairman on January 19, 2026, is perhaps the strongest "insider" signal.

The Signal: Berdugo is a US-based veteran with deep ties to Editas Medicine and Lazard. His hiring suggests Genflow is preparing for a US capital markets move or a US-led acquisition.

Global Credibility: Having a heavyweight like Berdugo lead the board during the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference (Jan 2026) positions Genflow as a peer to major NASDAQ biotechs rather than just another London micro-cap.

5. Financial Efficiency

Low Cash Burn: By securing regional grants (like the recent €4M) and pursuing licensing for "non-core" assets (the dog program), Genflow avoids the massive equity dilutions that kill other small biotechs.

Valuation Gap: Because it's on the LSE, GENF trades at a fraction of the valuation of similar US longevity firms like Altos Labs or Unity Biotechnology. Any "closing of the gap" would result in a significant re-rating.

Well that was interesting. Good spiked down from $5500 at 3pm to $5120 45 mins later. It's already recovered to $5360 now.

THX also spiked down at almost exactly the same time. Not based on trades, there were hardly any sells, but purely the market makers moving the price with gold.

The fact that gold is now so volatile implies there is very tight supply to meet demand. I would guess traders and miners are holding on to stockpiles as the price rises and as soon as any supply comes to market it's snapped up.

Also THX is not being priced based on share supply and demand, but on MM whim. I'm sure they hoped to nudge a few free of their shares when gold dropped, plunging the price like that would normally trigger some trailing stop losses or prompt some profit taking. Except it didn't. Hardly any sells.

What that tells us about THX is that it is really under the radar, it's not being priced on fundamentals yet, and there is a lot more headroom yet.

Struth, this is all getting into very uncharted territory. Gold could literally go to any price now, and so could THX.

The PFS was just the first catalyst of the quarter

Also due Q1:

Segilola Resource Update / Mine life extension

Development decision on Douta

Ivory Coast maiden resource

Q2 brings full year financials

I'd be surprised if the don't progress to start an Ivory Coast PFS

Then there is the Lithium.

FOMO should kick in this quarter, too much going on that will drive step changes. I know we have had a good run already, but it seems there is a lot more to go.

Nope, bought about £20k more. Started buying at 16p. Bought in the 30s, the 50s, 60s, and now 90s.

I still see this as undervalued. Gold is holding $5k and may well simply blast straight through. State banks are buying all the supply they can get.

I think one of two things are inevitable here:

1. (And most likely imv) The company will continue organic growth between now and 2030, and have three mines in production with well over $1Bn revenue.

2. They will be bought out by a larger player when the Segilola resource is restated and Douta is in build, probably late this year or early next.

Option 1 delivers a 4x plus return for shareholders. Option 2 likely a 2x return from here.

120p is now a short term fair price.

If gold keeps going the number will be higher.

PAF up almost exactly the same amount today. Wild.

Ok, adding some inference...

This is an end to LOM discussions, min 10-12 year mine life.

This also makes THX a takeover target at the current valuation. Unless there is a big uptick in mkt cap then cash rich gold miners will snap up THX

2 year time to first pour means this will overlap with Segilola without any additional development at Seg. There will be two producing assets , ~200koz production in 2028

Realistically this has ADDED at least half a $billion to the valuation, and with gold on a tear maybe double that.

The gold price explains the rise over the last few weeks, but this could also have been leaking a bit. No idea what the mkt reaction will be, but it should be jumping to 120p plus pdq.

Key points...

First pour expected H1 2028. !!!!

NPV5 at $3500 / Oz $633m

103k Oz p.a. for first four years production

Less than 1 year time to payback

No dilution to finance, funded by internal cashflow

No addition DFS, ordering and construction to start imminently

Initial licenses already granted

100% owned by THX

Blimey.

Trump goes ahead and starts bombing Nigeria. Far away in the North, but even so, hardly a stabilising influence.

For future price there is a rule of thumb, PE is slightly discounted against mine life.

If the mine life (and therefore revenue stream) gets extended to say 10 years then PE may be 8 or so. Assuming revenue stays flat for that period then a Segilola mine life extension could see the price 3x today, given PE is sub 3 now. As earnings rise with POG then the price also rises, but somewhat geared. Right now without any life extension this 'should' be a fair bit higher already.

If you add in extra earnings then that PE ratio is maintained, but price rises correspondingly. So if Douta comes online and produces at the same rate as Segilola, with a similar mine life, then price would double again.

So an extension to Segilola mine life to 10 years plus, Douta coming on line, and POG not falling back could see this 10x today at the outside, 6x perfectly reasonable within 3 years.

The risk section isn't frozen in time if the risks still exist. It's also the last published company report.

You obviously don't understand how JVs work and what the implications are for the company, but it's not up to me to explain though.

You're the one that's put on 100p near term, that would make the company worth over £100m. If you took a PE for the company of say a generous 20 given the growth factor, they would have to be making £5m a year net earnings to justify that price.

Working back from their 40% gross margin , and taking current fixed costs as fixed rather than obviously inflating, that's somewhere in the region of £25m sales attributable to the company, or £50m of JV sales. That's against the interim results of €1.8m gross income, which was not all from sales of GRFG panelling.

So to justify the valuation you propose they would have to increase their gross income by at least 900%.

Does anyone actually know how much the panels sell for by the SQM? They published the 42,000 sq m but it's not obvious what proportion of the €1.8m was related to this. If it's 100% then it would be €42.50 per sqm of panelling, about £37.

£25m in sales would be roughly 675,000 sqm of panelling at that rate.

Lucky Laurie,

It's hilarious you deny the company is a story stock and then do nothing but tell a favourable story.

You exaggerated the margins, the company themselves claim 40% gross margin.

Yes the certifications are important I agree, but on their own without market launch they create a possibility not a definite.

The JVs don't return the same gross margin, if it really is a full JV how does the company propose to manage the conflict of interest where the main customer is also the major shareholder in the JV? Inherently they want to minimise margin, or why do a JV in the first place? Show me an estimated return from any of the JVs, in numbers, based on expected sell prices in each market.

The big issue is the lack of any IP protection, that risk is unmitigated and leaves the door open to a Chinese clone, or in fact anyone else, to copy the gypsum powder and 2.5cm glass fibre strand manufacturing process. I don't believe there is anything proprietary in the machinery or process that can offer protection either.

I think ECOB's product is great, but they need to manage scaling up, whilst keeping margins relatively low to discourage and potential emerging competition. JVs are tricky especially wrt conflicts of interest.

Quoting what you wish the future share price to be with no basis of how the company gets there is just either ramping or dreaming, or both.

Some of the risks in the 24 report have been mitigated. The ones I listed have not and still exist

Scoobes, the best thing I have read is the full 2024 annual report which is available from the company website. It includes a full risk assessment for trh company which was really useful, but also provides a basis for calculating the company potential profitability.

There are three key risks highlighted:

1: new company with no track record of scaling up

2: very few customers and a high dependency on each individual contract

3: no IP protection for the product, they have no patent on it and the product is made from common and readily available materials.

Things like the legal action they are undertaking, the value of the quarry business on the balance sheet and other matters are also discussed. If you haven't read it yet then you should.

The remaining residual risk to the deal seems to be government interference which seems unlikely, or Sidara pulling the plug before it's finalised, also seems unlikely.

So what's creating the 25% / 6 mo return here? People afraid of tying their money up? I would have thought shorts closing would be pushing the price along, not a net drop on the day.

Opinions on a post card to the usual address.

Half an hour to place your bets ladies and gents...

Icecool, you first started telling me I was deluded when I sold at 66p and said I would sit on the sidelines to see how it played out, comparing the unserviceable debts to Petrofac. You thought PFC was a minnow 'corner shop' and WG the equivalent of Tesco, I'm sure the posts still exist.

I reckon you were already committed at that point, but likely piled in when it fell to 49, then 44, probably put all your spare cash in at that point. That's why you're here every day with 20-30 posts of abstract nonsense and mock anyone that has a counter view. I hope you didn't borrow to buy in, but either way you will likely be sat on a big loss where we are.

The reality is a No vote will be bad for the share price, if it was a bargain there would have been a counter offer by now, but you're blind faith can't let you see that.

A no vote may mean SID may walk away for six months, and pick up remnants as a firesale when WG can't raise finance. A 10p offer may seem generous at that point.

The No vote you have been desperate for will drop the price not increase it. Being desperate for something else to happen doesn't mean it will, especially when there are zero signs of it despite all the straws you clutch at.

I went through this with another company a couple of years ago, partly because of bulletin board group think a lot of people lost a lot of money, and some that couldn't afford it decided that was time for them, one them was a friend. I hope you're not in that kind of situation, there is always another deal to make.

Anyway, good luck, I genuinely hope I am wrong and something unexpected and miraculous happens as I will benefit from it too, but to be clear I am more than happy and in profit if I take the 30p.