Member Info for pickedpeck

The noise about a possible no vote is as likely to be what's holding the price down as anything else.

It's ironic that most of the people desperate for a No believe it will ultimately lead to more than 30p a share while the market thinks the possibility of a No means the share price can't creep up from just 22p despite a 30p cash offer being voted on.

I think it's the most obvious case where persistent deluded ramping of a near impossibility has had a wholly negative effect on a share price.

I just can't understand the logic of why people would think this might happen.

What would a potential bidder gain by allowing the vote on accepting the current offer get to the last day?

Surely a potential bidder would have been better submitting an offer prior to the vote being called? If they have done any DD we should have had an RNS declaring others were interested before voting?

Given the RNS that stated others had expressed interest but no negotiation or diligence was ongoing, surely the board would have had to provide a market update to the contrary?

I absolutely do not believe a bid is coming, nor do I believe there will be anything but a yes vote in light of that led by the institutions. The board and Sidara will have secured those votes already.

Believing otherwise is just wishful thinking.

Amazing amount of energy and angst being put in by posters here. I guess some facing significant losses unless there is a much higher price agreed, whilst some make money at 30p.

For new bidders to leave it so late is extremely rare, but not absolutely impossible. I think since the total deal cost has been out in the open for a while now, someone adding just 5% to the total deal cost would get almost universal shareholder approval at this stage.

I'm surprised Sidara didn't slam that door shut by doing it themselves unless they were really confident they didn't have to.

Honestly I think we are done here. 30p is it, the only choice now is whether to wait for the money or exit at what the market will offer before suspension. I'd expect 27-28p to allow a reasonable profit margin for the wait.

Sushi - it's because any stake it could build at low prices would be barely worth the effort in the scale of the whole deal. Saving 30% on the 2% of shares they could acquire that way may save them a few hundred thousand, it's meaningful for you or me but noise level for them.

It was just the first day of trading. A lot of people will have had much needed money locked in and needed to sell, prepared to take the lower cash price now rather than wait for the transaction to complete.

It will normalise over the next few trading days, probably around 24ish to allow for opportunity cost (money tied up for 6 months, worth 10% discount) and the relatively small residual risk (I'd assume another 10% discount until the vote). After the vote if it's a yes to the deal the price will inch up to about 26-27 pre suspension.

JO - I tend to agree. I can't see institutions taking any other option regardless of what's said here, unless a counter offer appears in the next 10 days. From the RNS it seems interested parties have come and gone, so it seems unlikely there will be a counter bid.

I see that today's pull back after the open is people selling that needed their money back. I see the Sidara deal at 30p as all but done, 21.5 gives nearly 40% profit from here.

Are they going to bother with readmission? I thought it was no longer automatic that they would come out of suspension because of the time elapsed, the listing effectively cancelled.

Sorry, not been paying attention much since the cash offer.

Weirdly I think POG and THX appear somewhat irrationally disconnected. Parallel producer shares like PAF have responded, and whilst THX has quadrupled it's a relatively easy argument to make that a lot of that rise has been due to belief in the mine life extension and exploration activities.

Specifically the price has barely budged from when gold crossed $3000 to when it crossed $4000, whilst THX margin has increased by around 30%.

If the PFS is really investable, and it's hard to imagine it won't be, and the life extension for Seg comes in increasing the NAV significantly then sitting on a PE of likely less than 2 is wildly out of sync with the gold market.

Beyond that the additional assets firming up with ongoing exploration also have the potential to drive the price upwards.

Oh, and I meant the UT thing. Playing in the market directly is a hard game and shouldn't be taken lightly by anyone, and if you can't grasp the basics of how the market works then it's likely you will be one of the 75% of private investors that lose money doing so.

If you don't know what a UT is and don't have the ability or inclination to find out and understand it, sell your shares and put the money back in a savings account where it belongs.

Not exactly over concerned about the Diwali effec on POG, in fact really happy as I have a large lump to put in by the end of the week!

That's some of the most shameless ramping I think I have ever seen. Don't you ever get the feeling you're just shouting at the tide?

I'm now pretty heavily invested in Thor, but using numbers like this is misleading.

Firstly the upside to current price has changed fairly dramatically since that was published. Its still good, but not that good.

Secondly the applied PE is ridiculous as by the writer's own admission the current income level only has two more years to run unless the Segilola LME or Douta mine are brought in. If Thor really had only two years of income remaining the maximum PE you would apply would be 2 not 9.

However I do believe that given the updates so far this year that the LME is very likely, not just for underground but also satellite extensions. Douta also seems to be progressing so there is a strong probability of regional extensions also.

That's what creates the opportunity here, not benchmarking against companies that already have multi year assets proven.

I can see this being 'one of those companies' that if you'd only known at the time to buy...

Just bought some more. I see this rising further as we go into the news season, operational updates, LME, Douta news, even a potentials for a special divi can all create a potential step change.

I bought my first block at 16p, it was showing 320% up at the high, the dilution has just brought it to 100% up overall.

I've added because I think as gold continues to climb this has the potential to at least double from here in the next 12 months despite the strong previous rise. At $4000 / Oz gold the cash generation right now is crazy.

I don't see a takeover happening until the news is out about both Douta and the mine life extension. The PFS is investable, and at that point the cash, mine NAV and share price will be out of whack unless it rises sharply

I hope it's a really hard tree shake, I have a lump of money coming later this week and would think about buying a lot more here when it does...

Mine life extension and Douta PFS need to be hatched before you can count them as chickens, no matter how likely they seem to be. Until they are published and available for review zero value will be assigned to them. That's the reason the share is trapped in the current trading range, the wider market plainly feels it is at fair value for existing cash and production.

As a PI you are prepared to bet on them both being positive, and for there to be a capital plan that doens't compromise the potential income from Segilola, otherwise we are maybe guilty of counting the same chickens twice.

We must be getting close to the date when the revised accounts are published, so I am getting curious about the mechanism for it.

Will they RNS an accounts release date in advance, or just spring the books out of the blue on us via RNS one morning?

Assuming the accounts are released to auditor satisfaction, how long afterwards will they come out if suspension? Same day? Next day?

If the books are released to Sidara's satisfaction what time line to them making a formal offer? Seems they have held on this long so some sort of offer will be inevitable, but will it be 35p?

When would any rival bidders have a chance to make an offer? Surely some declared interests would have had to have been made public by now.

Here we are half way through July, any bets whether accounts are released this month or next?

The obvious elephant in the room here is not being discussed, that is when will the revised accounts be published.

We are now getting close to the point when H1 figures would normally be put out, I'm not even sure they can do that until the prior year accounts are set out.

As far as I can see there has been no mention of a possible time line for the accounts in any RNS unless of course I've missed it.

The last PUSU extension for a whole month didn't exactly look encouraging in terms of anything being produced this month.

Anyone got a view on the WHEN rather than the WHAT?