Member Info for pickedpeck

Anyone saying shares were worth 23p and the company was £200m has never tried to buy a company or been involved in M&A.

Just because the price of the free 10% float of shares dropped to that level does not mean you could buy the whole company, every share, on the open market for that price. You couldn't even close out the shorts for that price.

Companies are worth what sellers will accept. The negotiations here will be by the board on behalf of the major shareholders, most of which will have held shares for 5 years or more. Those shareholders will be weighing the return over the next five years, not this months share price.

Most people here seem to be focusing on what the board will consider to be a reasonable bid, however the price is always what the buyer offers that the seller will accept. The seller is not the board here, it's the major shareholders that the board represent.

The major shareholders will be weighing whether they still have faith in the board to manage their asset, or whether they would be better taking an offer which will give them a guaranteed short term recovery.

So, as shareholders having seen the mid 20s price point and looked into the PFC precipice getting a little sphincter twitch those shareholders will not be expecting an offer at last years level.

If the board says no then I can see either the bid going hostile or an EGM outing the board.

So there is a rangebof options.

Board approved bid - hard to see less than £500m

Stalking horse or real second bidder £6-800m

Hostile bid £500m to £800m

In share price terms that's ~70p ish to 120p ish at the outside.

70p would only fly with a board recommendation, I'd kind of expect a little higher at maybe 80p to 100p being the final cash price.

Https://www.ft.com/content/e95b2a80-dd85-4163-bd76-3b316670d981

Wood Group, the embattled oil services and engineering company that was once the big homegrown success story of the UK North Sea, has entered talks with Sidara about a potential takeover by the United Arab Emirates-based company.

Sidara, which walked away from an earlier takeover attempt in August last year, has made a fresh approach following the collapse in Wood’s share price in recent weeks, according to two people close to the discussions.

The talks were ongoing on Monday morning but it is possible no deal will be concluded, the people said.

Price drops on funds could be as simple as US funds retreating from green initiatives due to the change of government emphasis over there. Changes like this are nothing to do with retail investor sentiment, the fund is too large for that to have much impact.

You could easily argue that's creating a range of bargains across the field with wind and solar funds offering 10% plus yields and large discounts to NAV.

The big question about what point to buy in at is harder, it looks like the general sell off of these funds is ongoing and there may be more room down yet, but the bargain prices will inevitably attract new buyers at some point. So if you're buying and holding for the yield they are not a bad bet now.

Harchris,

What you're describing is the Lassonde Curve, almost all new miners follow this curve to a greater or lesser extent. Often the price peaks before production on excitement or speculation, only for economic reality of start up and actual production costs to put a dampener on things.

The link below gives a good summary of the curve, but there are plenty of others out there.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/

HarChris,

No value is assigned to potential by professional mining investors, after BreX many expect JORC indepndently assessed and won't treat possible or even probable stuff with any weight. PIs will take risks much more speculatively, professionals wait to be shown auditable proof, and we need professionals to move the needle much.

I agree an independent assessment going into a PFS will add value, so will getting to DFS. The risks are obvious though, not least being a different government jurisdiction and security profile. As I said I have (also) invested speculatively that the outcome will be positive but right now we are still at the soft words stage rather than hard facts.

But always bear in mind the investor's definition of a miner - " A Miner is a liar standing next to a hole in the ground."

Willz, don't get me wrong, I have bought in a fair sized chunk here in the belief that they will extend their reserves.

But in all their presentations and fact sheets they obscure or at least don't highlight the current Segilola reserves situation. The point I was making is that it is not unreasonable for PE to be very low when the guaranteed earnings are only available for year or two. As a result the valuation of THX is entirely dependent on either extending mine life at Segilola or on finding new reserves elsewhere.

Basic sums, the Segilola Gold Mine was built based on a total probable reserve of 517,800

They have produced :

2022 98,006 ounces

2023 84,609 ounces

2024 ~ 85,000

for a total of 267,615 ounces

That leaves 250,000 ounces of reserves assuming they can extract 100% of the reserves. It is probable that they have front loaded the better grade material though, the remaining reserves may be lower grade and / or harder to extract.

So at most they have 3 years production left unless they extend the mine life. I know they may have stockpiled some but it doesn't change the reserve situation, maybe lowers the remaining AISC slightly but that's offset against mine closure.

All things being even, debt free and continuing at current production and earnings this limits the top end of their valuation to a PE of 3. Given they will have to pay some tax, have mine closure costs, its not unreasonable for the PE to be lower which is where we are at.

As I said, the catalysts for changing the valuation are finding additional reserves and correspondingly extending the mine life at Segilola. That's where their reserve statement on their Segilola page becomes interesting.

https://thorexpl.com/projects/segiliola-gold-project/

'The most recent drilling campaign focussed on converting in-pit inferred to indicated. ... The full potential of an underground resource has yet to be realised and ongoing exploration is planned to upgrade the current inferred underground resource to indicated and to test the continuation of the shoots at depth'

Its interesting because, well, tick tock and all that. They need to be shifting from inferred to indicated to probable to proven and measured reserves.

With the open pit part of the mine it is hard to imagine what is stopping them doing this, the costs and time are minimal for proving an open pit reserve, particularly as they are currently cash rich.

Anyway, just thought I would chip in. As I said I have bought in based on the belief that they will extend their reserves, the above is for my own hypothesis of investment valuation as much as anything. It doesn't factor in Douta or anything else, those are pre PFS and carry almost no weight on the balance sheet and won't until they are a lot further on, post P(D)FS.

I don't expect a sudden complete rerate based on earnings, everyone is expecting them to earn a lot already. I believe they will only rerate on significant mine life e

Please correct me if I am wrong here but, the PE has to be a product of mine life surely. Its not like THX has ten years of producing income at that level from proven reserves. Duration of income is also a function of valuation.

I see the potential here of producing a high level of debt free margin over the next 18 months as enabling a large increase in proven reserves. That's where the company valuation changes, show you can make this income level for a decade or more and everything changes, dramatically hopefully.

I asked ii a question about this today. I already have a W8BEN on file. Their answer was interesting:

'Dear Investor,

Thank you for the secure message

Your account already has a Canadian tax treaty rate attached as the Canadian Revenue Agency states that as long as we are compliant with UK KYC regulations, we can apply a treaty without the form. Therefore, whenever we are able to, we automatically apply treaty rates for Canadian income.

Regards

Operational Tax'

Anyone wanting to switch I am happy to split the referral fee with you :)

SAS Premier Investissement - 34.5m shares? 24.5% position now.

Is this is bid for the remainder of the cash shell about to land?

I tendered all the ones in my ISA, but still have a chunk in SIPP.

I'm trying to decide if the price drift lower whether it is worth buying more. I have a feeling (need to d the sums again) that the final settlement will be ahead of the 11.5p, but that we could drift down in the interim.

Bought a few here yesterday, not to trade but for bottom drawer. Tech and stage look interesting, and they are likely to make it and get acquired at some point.

Is there no upfront calendar published then? Seems an odd way to go about things.

141m shares left in circulation.

Anyojlne done the likely cash position calculation yet?

I can't see any dividend announcements for 2025 , there has been a mid Feb xd the last two years. Have I just missed it or has something changed?

Try looking back at your comments, thread view may help.

Some of the nonsense you come out with doesn't age well.

Thanglan - I don't believe they will go under, and I also don't believe they will be stuck Petrofac style either. I think you just need to hold on a bit longer and some of that inheritance may reappear.

So, Marshall Wace have made money on their 1.8% short position after all.

It will be interesting to see what their next move is. Fold, stick or twist. Twist and some more sharks circling implies the city still smells more blood in the water. Folding means we are at or near their perception of the bottom. Stick... well, its a wait and see.

Quite annoying that the part owner of GB News is the one profiting massively from this.

Personally I think the next few trading days should put a bottom in, wherever that is, and then once the full report is published the real recovery can begin. Negative FCF and disposing of viable assets never looks positive, although it didn't do RR any harm a few years ago.

I don't think the board can survive this, the big shareholders will want heads and new leadership to drive the turnaround. It may not happen right now, it wouldn't help the company or price in the next few weeks but there will be a new CEO and CFO before the year is out.

Every hope of a solid recovery here, but no need to dive in until the price has found some stability.

Still, my buy coincides with LRE being damned with faint praise :

UBS cuts Lancashire price target to 870 (945) pence - 'buy'

Still a buy, but that's quite a price target cut.

Sub 610, looking for a 10% plus rinse and repeat rise back towards 675 over the next couple of months.