Member Info for pickedpeck

That last one is an AI authored piece of nonsense.

The psychology pre-results day is interesting.

You could assume bad results have leaked so the price is pulling back, but there is no volume to indicate significant selling, in fact today is a relatively low volume day all round so far.

You could think its a bluff to try and get some stock sold and therefore in hand before results day, but given the volume that's not a plan that's working either.

Days like today are why there is a really good argument for not watching the price every day, and on that note let's see where we are in March.

What's interesting is that the share price is rising on lower volumes than when it fell. Have a look at the 6 month chart here... the volumes during the slope down into the 800s were much higher than those when it has been coming back up.

You can infer all sorts of things from that, not least that stock sold on the downside has been absorbed and is now tight enough to rise on little buying pressure.

Yep, I took that choice yesterday. I sold my holding at a big loss and have put the takings elsewhere. In my view better to get something out than watch it wither to nothing.

The deciding factor for me was the new rare earths BS project which seems a direct echo of the BS Australian project. They absolutely sniff of scams. There is an old saying that the definition of a miner is a liar standing next to a hole in the ground. I can't help but feel that way here. No public program plan, no economic assessment, no actual dates or milestones to creating a mine just some wishful thinking.

Good luck all, but I am out, I hope for those still invested my decision is a bad one but obviously believe otherwise.

Nope, after the sharp rise yesterday I am a bit surprised that there is any rise at all today as profit taking will have kicked in for short term traders. the momentum is week to week, not daily.

I would be nice to see some more director buying, a new buy back program, or even some additional ii stake building to really put the pressure on.

ASP - The way I think the shorts will play out is that now some have started to crack the immediate effect on the share price should trigger the others to exit. I think the shorts closing will be far more material to the price than the index positions, but as the mkt cap gets pushed up so does the relative weight the index trackers need to buy also.

You're absolutely right that it will become a self reinforcing price shift.

Oh sorry I meant to add, market cap of £538m as of this morning is well inside the FTSE 250, so long as it holds above that then there will be a re-entry. I am never really sure how much material effect that has on the sp though, but it does reduce the float for sure which already must be looking pretty tight.

Bridgwater have reduced again on the 5th, as have Millennium.

Looks like Bridgwater have properly cracked now, they still have a fair chunk to buy back.

Hopefully there will be a continuing charge for the exit for the shorts now.

Could end up being a perfect storm here.

Shorts must be seriously thinking they need out now. Clearly an technical indicators are positive let alone the macro factors.

Republican pro oil and gas administration, export terminals green lit will suck up extra production.

Then there is the share price, well past the barrier now for FTSE250 re-entry so there are a bunch of funds that need to buy shortly.

A decent set of results in this environment and all sorts of fun could ensue.

One of them was me :)

I think it is probably the shorts steadily easing out and may go on for quite some time... Pending what happens with the election.

Too late now the votes are in. Anyone vote against?

Hopefully they will be a lot closer to 20p distribution than 10p.

Anyone think reducing by 0.01 is a signal for "OK, we are getting out!", silly I know but in the old days a 1 share trade was occasionally a signal flag.

Voleon, JPM, and Bridgwater all reducing on the same day, pretty much everyone reducing over the last month.

Anyone noticed RRB hasn't been posting as much either lately?

This might turn into a charge for the exit of they can't trust each other to get out in an orderly fashion.

What fun.

Still, election week so anything can happen from here. Trump wins commodities go through the roof as the wider market falls. It's close but Trump loses and tries to start a civil war, lord knows what happens to the market. Trump loses by a margin, market rises fast across the board on future stability.

Terry, you're right, it does need a slide rule.

The EBITDA of the acquisition is stated as $19m. Assuming no improvement in prices realised and no change to the forecast net purchase price then time to payback is about 3 years (less than the 3.5x quoted multiple).

That's how they were able to part fund with debt and part with equity. Obviously the same money would not have been available for a share buy back, and even if it was the time to payback via improved cash flow per share on share purchases is a fair bit further out. I fact given interest rate on debt finance being broadly the same as the current dividend rate, unless the company was debt free buy backs would make no improvement to cash flow at all short term.

(Imagine a company with a valuation of $100m paying a 10% dividend borrows $10m to buy back shares. In cash flow terms the company would be paying either the same $10m in dividend to fewer shareholders, or will have reduced the dividend cost in line with reduced mkt cap. It will now also be paying 9-10% interest on the $10m loan. In cash flow terms the company is either worse off or at best more or less even. It has not increased it's income and has either higher or similar outgoings.

If the same company borrows $10m to buy $5m of extra income, and uses the extra income acquired to pay down the debt in the first two years, then by year 3 the company is making an extra $5m a year and in the same income / debt position otherwise.)

Modelling this out in terms of production degradation and actual returns and interest rates is harder, particularly as production price varies, and overheads get reduced, but the general principle applies.

Terry - it's an interesting question, but yes, it's better than buying back shares.

Not exactly rocket rocket science to understand is it? Dilution is not in isolation from business change. Production and NAV have gone up also. You can do the percentages, but pretending this is in no way an accretive acquisition is purely disingenuous.

As a holder with well into 8 figures of shares today's RNS didn't move the needle because it didn't have any specific content related to meaningful quantities of gold being mined, recovered and sold. Yes it's very exciting that the company has installed a ladder, and even bought a mini digger.

But until there are mineralisation results and at least a PEA of the mine this will continue to drift on the now built in market cynicism over ALBA announcements.

This year's Lithium debacle is a prime example of hype leading to absolutely knob all. Lots of hype, followed by quietly ending discussions. How much did that circus cost exactly? We're we ever told?

Get a meaningful amount of ore sampled, properly describe the good content, and make a PEA or even better a feasibility study and the needle will move up.

I'm here because I think it is highly likely that there is a significant quantity of recoverable gold in that mine and it is unlikely to be played out. If there is then even these idiots shouldn't be able to f it up.

Yep, I read that.

The key word in their statement is 'intends'. Intends implies that it is possible that something may happen that will prevent the board doing what they intend. Admittedly they have to allow for the unlikely possibility of losing the shareholder vote, but it is also possible that other things may happen, one of which is a value add bid for the cash shell. The outcome is not yet nailed on.

The company indicated this week that it intended to go the cash shell route. That may mean no distribution. A cash shell serves a specific purpose, it can help a company wanting to list on the market avoid the cost and admin pain of an IPO. A $70m ish cash shell would be an interesting target.

It could be the way this plays out is that all the cash is retained in the company until they find someone wanting to acquire the whole business. So rather than a dividend distribution current shareholders may see a stock and cash offer, cash only, or stock only offer for their shares.

I think it's probably a bit in the air what will actually happen here.

They are never here when the price is rising, or usually when there is a holiday in the US. Got to presume they are on US hours.

So in the company RNS the maximum potential value is $72.5m.

Everything is a bridge to or from that number.

Saturday down south ($4m)

Cash Balance ($0.6m of the initial $20m for Europe)

Reduced Europe Earn out ($1m)

6 months NA business EBITDA $3m(?)

Reduced NA earn out ($0-10m, say $5m)

Fees?

Tax?

An estimate of $7.6m off the $72.5m

Looks more like $65m ish less fees and taxes.