Member Info for pauldrayton

I’m looking for 180p before selling any.

Brent was around $80 in September 2010 so not hugely different from today, although it was on its way to $120.

There were literally thousands of private investors at the time punting on Rockhopper and others in the oil & gas sector. Many people made a lot of money riding the wave after the 2008/2009 slump and oil investing was very much in fashion.

Things have changed, but of course Rockhopper are in a much better place now.

It’s an interesting dynamic with only Aedos Advisors owning over 3% of Rockhopper. This is quite unusual.

In a way it means there are probably more ‘free float’ shares around ie. smaller investors with shorter term investment criteria, but equally few very large holders who would be able to suppress the share price for a long time if they decided to sell out.

The other question is, will more institutions want a larger stake should FID happen? I’d say highly likely they would, so large buyers could come into play as if Sea Lion gets sanctioned.

Despite the increase in volume in recent weeks there still hasn’t been a Holdings RNS.

Agree this looks ridiculously undervalued at the moment. Do you have a price target Oil?

Another crack at resistance but not through yet. I think it needs to close above 22.5p to confirm a breakout from here, then blue sky above.

I think the one thing we’ve learnt is that ICSID take their time! It’s unpredictable to be honest. I’d say possible within a month, very likely within 3 months and almost definite within 6 months.

Much lower volume today. SP taking a breather.

We will need volume and possibly positive news to push through 20p decisively.

Thanks Tincan although it’s excruciating reading some of these poorly researched articles by people who haven’t got a clue about Rockhopper or the NFB.

Still, a bit of exposure is probably never a bad thing.

Thanks Mogger.

“Principles for an Investment Protection Agreement” sounds promising.

Jigsaw pieces being put together for funding.

I missed the presentation so will have to catch up once the recording is available.

Anything interesting?

The fight for 20p is on!

Can it hold?

Have to agree with you there Paul. Unfortunately Malcy hasn’t got a clue.

Difficult to say who’s buying (no notifications of thresholds being exceeded as yet), but as somebody else recently mentioned, once things start moving industry insiders get wind of it. A contract here or there and word starts to spread. To be honest RKH has been overdue a rerate for some time anyway, so it’s no great surprise.

There may be a few who took profits at 17-19p now scrambling to get back in.

It will pull back at some point but I won’t be selling.

20p (like 15p) is probably going to be a tough nut to crack, but like 15p there is blue sky above.

I’m not surprised by the market reaction (I’ve been a bit negative myself!), but it is a good deal to get a free carry on an appraisal well as well as an exploration well (in a success case). Yes 10% is a lower upside than 15.75% but that upside is still enormous.

The other real positive is the size of the partner. INPEX won’t have any problems with financing this. I wonder if the Japanese link was there from the former LBE/JAPEX days.

I think the problem was that it was an anti-Tory General Election. Labour won pretty much by default with a low turnout and much lower share of the vote than predicted.

Now people have seen these clowns in office for just a matter of weeks, it’s clear they are not just useless but a danger to the country.

The right of centre does need to get its act together to avoid this mess in future. In the meantime I’m afraid we are doomed.

20% CoS so far from a certain discovery. It’s the potential that is enormous if it comes in though. Good that SEA are also pursuing lower risk assets alongside it as they don’t want to be a one-trick pony.

I hope you’re right Oil and they have something else they’re working on near term.

I’m surprised they reduced to 10% having stated 15.75% only a matter of weeks ago - I thought they’d have had indicative offers to be making such a statement but clearly not.

Be nice to see some action on the DEWA assets soonish.

All to play for and balance sheet secure is good. Directors took a chunk of the placing which means those shares will be in sticky hands.

Still slightly disappointed this morning but the future remains bright.

No ICSID update for nearly 9 weeks now which is a bit surprising, but I don’t think this move is related to Ombrina Mare at all.

I think we are all expecting a bit of resistance now at this level, and there could be a pull back. Might need testing a few times or news to break 20p but let’s see. Strong volume again this morning.