Member Info for pauldrayton

I have a problem with misinformation and people trying to mislead others Garbled, and you’re a prime candidate for that.

Phil, it’s not a case of people wasting time on shares they do not own - it is entirely possible to be interest in companies but not buy shares, or not feel now is the right time to buy shares.

I have followed all the companies involved in Falkland Islands exploration over the years and have held differing views on them at various times depending on the circumstances.

There is a lot of nonsense being spouted on here about sharing a rig with Navitas etc, and I feel it’s right to call that out.

Garbled you spent years on here telling everyone that ARG would do better than RKH. What happened to them? You’re now doing the same with BOR, and they are likely to end up the same as ARG.

Your nonsense will continue to be called out.

I’m not concerned about your investments Rookie, but I am concerned about people being misled and hoodwinked. I’m afraid that gus’ cosy chats with the board and Garbled’s usual nonsense are designed to manipulate people.

As I have explained to you on the BOR board Garbled, and crofty has reiterated on here, BOR are likely to be at least a decade away from drilling. They will likely end up like your previous favourite - ARG. Now stop trying to mislead people as usual.

I think we are in agreement LTT but you are a bit more hopeful than I am in the short term.

I don’t see any reason for Navitas to do a deal with BOR in the short term - they really don’t need to touch the SFB for a long time (there is so much in the NFB to go at which will keep them busy).

Of course that’s just my opinion and I could be wrong. I don’t doubt the potential of the SFB, but I think it’s a decade or more away.

Wrong Garbled. I’m not concerned about ‘punters’ in the slightest. I’m concerned that you continually attempt to mislead people.

If you disagree with what I’ve said why don’t you put forward an argument to the contrary? I suspect because you can’t. You just want me to go away because I interrupt your incessant misleading ramping nonsense.

Maybe Garbled, maybe not. You are just ramping but there isn’t much substance behind that other than you’re hoping that BOR hang onto RKH’s coattails.

If (as I suspect) Harry Baker’s comments prove to be nothing more than a load of bluster then the market will soon realise. Like I said, there won’t be a rig share and Navitas have no need to do a deal with them right now. They run out of money again before the end of the year so there could be more dilution on the horizon.

Tincan, I don’t disagree with you that there is potential here - I just don’t think the SFB will see any action for a decade.

There might be scope for 2 or more rigs in the Falkland Islands at some point, but there certainly isn’t the infrastructure at the moment. I don’t agree with your point about the licenses - there hasn’t been any drilling for a decade now!

If Navitas stick to their timeline of first oil in 2027 then they need to get a rig down there this year and there will be non-stop drilling on Sea Lion for at least 5 years just for phases 1 & 2. If another rig arrives it would likely be to assist them with Sea Lion and/or the follow-on phase 3 (Isobel/Elaine).

Navitas certainly won’t spend more than they need to for a rig suitable for the SFB so there can’t be any rig share with BOR in the meantime.

Like I said, I don’t mean to be negative because I wish BOR well. I just can’t see any action for them in the short to medium term.

And I have to say these comments from the board (via gus) are VERY suspect and misleading in my opinion (if true).

PS. His comments about infrastructure coming on stream very quickly in the FIs makes me even more suspicious. Sounds like he’s being deliberately misleading to me.

Gus have you considered that Harry might be having you on? Or that he’s a bit of a b*llsh*itter?

The rig that BOR would require for the SFB is way overspecced (and therefore more expensive) than what Navitas need for the shallower waters in the NFB.

Navitas are doing all they can to reduce costs so there is no way on earth they are going to contract a more expensive drilling rig for their entire Sea Lion development programme just so that BOR can borrow it. That would make absolutely no sense at all, and it calls into question Harry’s response to you. I suspect (if your communication with him is real) that he’s being disingenuous.

I do wish BOR well but can’t see them drilling for a decade.

Whilst I should have learned by now how long ICSID take to do anything, I’m slightly surprised we haven’t heard an outcome yet. The hearing was last April and post hearing briefs were submitted in June (7 months ago now).

Hard to say. Nothing goes up in a straight line and it’s healthy to backtest and gain support. Time will tell where that strong support is. Doesn’t really matter to me as I’m not trading it - I’m just going to wait and hope for project sanction and first oil.

Further to the discussion regarding the North Sea, which we all know is now a disaster for investors, I was trying to think last night where in the world is now better for hydrocarbon investment than the North Falkland Basin.

Bear in mind it’s an untapped basin with probably circa 60bn barrels of oil in place. The FIG are not only supportive of oil development, and have a favourable tax regime, but given what’s happened elsewhere in the world Navitas have been able to secure commitments not to make the tax regime punitive in the future.

The breakeven price per barrel is low, the next Sea Lion (Isobel) is ready and waiting, and there is plenty more exploration potential to follow on.

Argentina sabre rattling aside, it’s a politically and militarily safe environment, with shallow waters and relatively benign sea conditions (similar to North Sea).

I honestly couldn’t think of anywhere in the world that offers better metrics for investors in oil & gas.

I’m sure you all follow oil & gas companies who operate elsewhere in the world - is there anywhere better right now?

Agree LTT. An outright buyer is likely to be prepared to wait for first oil and pay more for ‘certainty’, rather than take on the risks of doing it sooner (however large or small they may be).

That’s where the opportunity for investors comes in, and they take the risk in the hope of the eventual reward.

I don’t think we will see RKH taken out any time soon. Possibly after first oil though if it arrives, although it would be a shame unless it was at a large premium which takes into account the potential of the entire NFB.

I suspect we will see another partner come in, and whoever that company is will already be engaging with Navitas. I’m leaning towards a mid cap company rather than a major, and one which is happy with a small stake and Navitas continuing as operator.

Honestly no idea who but there are quite a few who have been burned by the EPL in the North Sea who are now looking for opportunities elsewhere. An American company based in Houston would be a nice addition - although the current Argentine government isn’t too hostile you never know what the future holds and US involvement could help (not that Navitas really care anyway).

I’m inclined to agree with you buzz.

Just north of £3million in volume today moved the share price over 14%. That’s peanuts. It works both ways, of course, and we’ve all seen how the share price can go down on small volumes as well. Thankfully at the moment it seems the demand for shares is there and the desire to sell is not.

I’m not sure if it’s more private investors buying in, or institutions starting to build a stake. No Holdings RNS yet continues to intrigue me because it means no single entity has spent more than about £4m yet in recent weeks (yet). If Sea Lion gets sanctioned the big boys will no doubt want a piece of the action, and it’s a question of what that does to the share price then. Is there going to be much inclination to sell on FID, for example, knowing that first oil would follow? And then Phase 2, and then Isobel, and on and on.

No I won’t stop Garbled because you are trying to mislead people.

The SFB and NFB are both in Falkland Island waters but they are VERY different beasts. Navitas are focusing on the NFB and the rig required is very different from one that BOR would need. You don’t need to be a genius or a fortune-teller to know that Navitas are not going to pay more to hire a rig just so that BOR can borrow it - it simply isn’t going to happen.

I repeat - there will not be a rig share.

Garbled,

Navitas are doing their utmost to reduce the cost of Phase 1 - there is no way on earth they are going to contract an overspecced rig to suit the SFB. Therefore there will not be a rig share. BOR are many years away I’m afraid.

I think BOR are a very long way off. They’re obviously seeing a bit of momentum off the back of RKH, but I’m not actually convinced it helps them that much. The Falkland Islands doesn’t have much infrastructure at the moment and Navitas & RKH have loads to go at in the shallower waters of the NFB. I can’t see Navitas wanting to upgrade the rig just so BOR can drill a well - that would be madness, and one rig is enough for the time being in terms of logistics.

There is no doubt that Darwin & the SFB have potential but they haven’t even drilled an appraisal well let alone set about FEED etc (and we all know how long that takes). They also only have money for about 10 months so will need to raise and dilute again unless they farm out soon.

I’m not being negative because I do wish them well but I think RKH are many years ahead of them - come back to look at the SFB in a decade or more.

Buzzthomas is right - although volume has increased significantly, it’s not a lot in monetary terms.

Even 10 million shares traded in a day is only equal to circa £3million at these levels. Not big money for institutions if they’re wanting to take a stake at some point. Yet that volume is providing a nice strong rise in the share price, underlining that many holders here are not selling regardless. That’s good news, because it means shares aren’t being given away cheaply and anybody wanting to build a significant stake now is going to have to pay for it.

We used to see 20-25million shares traded in a day on a well result back in the day when the share price was £3+ so easily £60-70million worth.