Member Info for pauldrayton

I’m not so sure about that Auson. Companies will be looking beyond the politics of current administrations - they come and go.

Agree BlooBird.

Can’t see Shell or any other supermajor wanting to come into a frontier basin and let Navitas operate.

Small-medium size company willing to take a back seat is far more likely imo.

Rockhopper have already stated that they don’t intend to reduce from 35%. That could be a bit of brinkmanship but I also wouldn’t want to see a big reduction at this stage. A 5% reduction max to 30%.

I think any new partner will be small-medium size willing to take on the Argentine factor and happy for Navitas to remain as operator.

Any farm out wouldn’t be complete prior to FID though. Even if agreed and announced now these things tend to take 3-4 months at least to get sanctioned and signed off.

Navitas will do it from a position of strength (FID-ready).

Navitas stated today that they expect production to start at Shenandoah in June, but also expect Sea Lion FID mid-2025.

That’s not sufficient time to satisfy a potential Sea Lion funder that Shenandoah is going to be reliably producing for foreseeable future and I guess that’s why they’ve mentioned bridging finance and refinancing Shenandoah later.

I think that points towards a likely deal having been agreed with a new farm in partner who will take on a proportion of the funding.

It also means we aren’t ‘really’ waiting for Shenandoah to be up & running for any significant period of time.

We know that the Aoka Mizu FEED has been fast tracked to be ready for April.

I’m (perhaps hopefully) leaning towards FID earlier than I originally thought - early June or perhaps even May, alongside the announcement of a new partner and funding package.

The fact that Navitas have reiterated their timescale from November at this stage is a huge positive in my opinion. It was an opportune time to push it back had there been any concerns or delays, but it seems like they’re keen to push forward with it ASAP.

It might be related but not on a daily share price basis. Sea Lion FID may help the SFB in time but probably in a decade or so. No reason for BOR’s SP to react today and maybe the market is waking up to that.

I’m not sure RKH news is related Rookie.

Different basin.

Yes Navitas own 65%.

If RKH can last until after Isobel has been appraised though, it will probably treble in size so RKH’s share might be 300mmbls+.

Sound advice Garbled. Some of them were pumping ARG not so long ago!

If Navitas were going to farm into BOR it would have happened some time ago.

Goodbye Market Dealer.

For those concerned about waxy crude:

“Independent studies indicate that there are many markets including refinery centres that match the quality of the oil asset including in East Asia, Northern Europe and the United States”.

Some more detail in the full report on timelines.

If all goes to plan construction works in the Falkland Islands will begin this year and production drilling starting next year along with the FPSO refit, constructing accommodation, upgrading of pier facilities, helipad, offices and a logistics centre.

Navitas have reiterated their strategy of developing proven resources, and expedited the follow-on phases of Sea Lion and Isobel/Elaine.

I think those expecting them to get involved with BOR are likely to be disappointed. It’s not their MO and they have plenty on their plates to get on with.

Thanks Mogger.

First oil Shenandoah June 2025.

First oil Sea Lion end of 2027.

Looking at both bridging loans and a potential partner for Sea Lion. Finance likely to come from a foreign bank, issuance of foreign bonds and oil traders.

Also they’ve put forward an agreement with FIG on tax & regulatory stability so that should be agreed prior to FID.

Navitas reiterate their strategy of developing proven oil & gas reserves. I think those expecting them to get involved with BOR are likely to be disappointed.

These resource updates commissioned by Navitas are purely for securing finance and/or potential partners.

‘Development pending’ resources- what a moment for RKH.

We are getting closer.

Let’s hope Shenanandoah goes to plan - less than 100 days to mid-2025.

We’re at that sticky price point again. Can it push through or bounce off again?

I think it needs to close above 44.5p to move higher.

“Production testing from wells SA08 and SA09 indicates flow rates exceeding those projected in the reserve report.”

Sounds positive Ladigue - thank you.

Navitas are really planning for the medium-long term now which is great to see. FID reiterated for mid 2025 at this stage is a massive positive.

I wonder why Rockhopper intends to commission its own Independent Resource Evaluation. Not sure what the point of this is?

There was originally an assumption from Rockhopper that there may be anything from a small discount to a small premium to Brent depending on the refinery, but demand for waxy crude is growing. I can’t remember if Navitas have commented on what they expect.

Some light reading for you:

https://navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Sea-Lion-NTS_28.6.24_Rev_2_NS.pdf

Https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeff-dawson-a7b73535?