Member Info for pauldrayton

Thought you’d said goodbye and disappeared M-D.

4m shares (which were bought AND sold) equate to £200k. RKH’s UT alone was higher than that today.

Again you seem either not to know what you’re talking about M-D, or you like trying to mislead others. Possibly both.

Don’t get too caught up with what’s a buy and what’s a sell - that amount was able to be bought and sold at that time. The share price moves when there is more buying pressure or selling pressure. At the moment it’s quite static here so it’s pretty even for both buys and sells.

Could just be the closing auction when the prices get a bit strange sometimes.

Large UT trade I note.

Market-Dealer has a habit of telling porkies.

Not worried about you M-D but worried for those who might listen to the nonsense you spout.

Market Dealer, you need to understand the difference.

Rockhopper have a market cap of £300m now and they have 35% of a fully appraised and tested field. Not only Sea Lion, but a huge license area with other enormous fields.

They have a partner, an FDP and FEED is pretty much complete.

The idea that BOR could get anywhere near that market cap with just a single discovery well (unappraised) is for the birds.

They may have 100% but what would a potential partner want? Probably a significant portion of that just to fund an appraisal well. And BOR would still be miles behind RKH not just in timescale to first oil but also technically and monetarily.

You’re comparing apples with pears.

Again - why would anybody invest in the SFB now? With all the infrastructure going in for the NFB, hasn’t it pushed the SFB back by a decade at least?

BOR have never been able to secure a partner - why on earth would they be able to now?

I couldn’t disagree with Market Dealer more.

BOR’s market cap is plenty already as far as I can work out. MD thinks it could multiply by 5-10 from here which would equal £225-450m!

For what? An unappraised and untested discovery in deep water off islands with zero infrastructure.

Cloud cuckoo land I’m afraid.

What none of the BOR stalwarts seem to address is the fact that Navitas are doing all the work and getting a rig and infrastructure in place for the NFB which is very different from the SFB. Is there even the capacity to appraise/develop Darwin until Sea Lion is in production? Even after that there are Phases 2 & 3 - Navitas and the FIG have plenty on their plate for the next decade or more.

BOR has seen a rise in sympathy of progress in the north but that doesn’t necessarily translate to progress for them - in fact possibly quite the opposite.

Who would buy BOR now and what would they pay? Not very many potential bidders and not a lot would be my guess. I just don’t see the bull case here at all.

Great to see some new faces on here. It’s been a long time with the same old faces (I include myself in that!). What a week and hopefully more exciting times ahead. Aoka Mizu FEED should be completed in April.

Sounds like a few people might be hoping for a bit of a pull back over the next couple of weeks then!

Let’s see what tomorrow brings. Positive to close at par today I think.

And yes, as JEBR points out, if they were to farm down a portion of their ownership then an independent report would be necessary (although the base case is to retain the full 35%).

I was confused at first as well and I’m not quite sure why an independent report done on behalf of the operator is insufficient, but those are the rules.

If you mean the independent resource analysis, I asked RKH about this.

It’s because the Navitas numbers provided by NSAI are now quite different from the last CPR commissioned by Rockhopper. I think that’s prevents Rockhopper from commenting on them much, at least without all sorts of caveats about it not being their data. It would be better if they were aligned, and that Rockhopper could comment on their own independent report.

I asked whether they could just ask NSAI to do a report for them and I believe that’s an option (although nothing has been decided yet).

Also, should a bid come in for Rockhopper then the takeover code would prevent them from using Navitas’ report and they would need their own (hopefully not something that will happen yet anyway but better to be prepared!).

Agreed. I’m sure there will be backtests but I think 68p looks like the next resistance.

Obviously all news-dependent. An Italy annulment win would negate things for now but otherwise there are blue skies above.

LTT - borgo/BrightSpot has never and will never have any inside information. The stories might entertain some but they have no basis in reality whatsoever. There are some who did have inside info, but he’s not one of them. I agree with TopDrive.

45p certainly looks like strong resistance on the daily chart but I think the key was closing above 44.5p, which it has done. Let’s see over the next few days - I think this could be the start of a new higher trading range although there could be a backtest soon/first.

Tincan, I think the oil type will be very similar as it all comes from the same lacustrine source rock.

“ A very rich source rock has been encountered in the North Falkland Basin and is capable of generating up to 102 kg HC/tonne of rock. Although much of the vertical thickness of the source rock is immature, it is capable of generating hydrocarbons below about 2, 700m and reaches peak oil generation at a depth of about 3, 000m. Estimates of the volume of source rock that lie within the oil-mature window range from 36 x 10 9 m 3 to 400 x 10 9 m 3, depending on the seismic horizon mapped. It has been estimated that up to 60 billion barrels of oil may have been expelled in the basin.”

It sounds silly to say it when the share price has been as low as 6p in the not too distant memory, and sits at 45p now, but I would personally be very disappointed with 130p.

The scale of the potential should RKH make it to FID and first oil really is almost unimaginable. There is another Sea Lion ready & waiting and an entire basin to explore/exploit. Opportunities like this don’t come around often. I’m not saying it will definitely happen and even if it does there will inevitably be bumps in the road, but the potential is there for this to be huge.

I think Oscar is right and the Israeli money has followed the Navitas results. No significant Holdings RNS suggests it’s still mostly small players. How much will that change if funding is secured and FID goes ahead?

I still think 80p would be ‘fair’ value if OM & FID news are positive, but the potential is there for multiples of that.

Long way to go but exciting nonetheless!

NastyNick predicted 50p by end of March.

I think it needs to close above 44.5p to break higher. If it does he could be right!

SH, that was probably 6 weeks or so ago, but did stress there is no official timeline so it’s all very uncertain.

LTT, yes €31m in the coffers would be good but €65m would certainly cover RKH’s contribution to Sea Lion pre-FID. Would €31m leave them needing to raise more funds?

I still think it needs to close above 44.5p to break higher - until then there is downside risk as it hits resistance.

Might need some (good) concrete news to push through. Speaking of which the RKH lawyers were expecting news on OM by end of March/early April. There is no guarantee that it will be good news or even that it will come when they expect, but early April must mean within the next couple of weeks you’d think. The hearing was almost a year ago now!