Member Info for pauldrayton

Market-Dealer does not post contrarian views to provide balance and healthy debate. He tries to manipulate the share price up or down depending on his position at the time. It’s obviously a futile exercise because everybody here knows his motives, but that’s his intent.

OPEC meeting moved to tomorrow. Expectations are for them to continue the policy or increasing supply (circa 411k) in June.

Better news on the US jobs front - no indication of a recession (yet)

Probably still some choppy waters ahead in the general market but the main thing is getting Shenandoah on stream.

You are quite correct LTT. Navitas have been keen on Sea Lion historically at current oil prices (and lower). I think the average global breakeven price is circa $45/bbl for new projects so Sea Lion at $25/bbl really is impressive.

There will of course be ups & downs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see energy stocks under pressure this afternoon in advance of the OPEC+ meeting on Monday which holds some risks, but I suspect Navitas aren’t phased by recent events no matter what certain agenda-driven posters might want you to believe.

BP is very different from Rockhopper.

Aren’t they revising their strategy and pivoting away from renewables and back to oil & gas.

I’d say that’s a positive for RKH, not a negative.

I’m sure plenty of people have filtered you Market-Dealer but I haven’t filtered anybody ever.

Let’s see what Navitas have to say because frankly you haven’t got a clue.

You’ve been saying that for weeks Market-Dealer because you sold out. Yet you continue to post on BOR’s forum that you’ve been buying more - strange thing to do if you think the Falkland oilies will sugger badly.

You might end up being right (not because you know anything) but then again you might not. You’ve proven yourself to be untrustworthy multiple times so I suspect most people would rather listen to what Navitas have to say than what you have to say.

I think the RKH share price has held up remarkably well considering the oil price slide. You’d think it would now be in the 60-70p range if Brent was $70+.

Not huge volumes in recent weeks - there is perhaps a bit of market hesitancy, which is unsurprising given the general tariff turmoil and uncertainty over demand and OPEC+ supply. As you say hopefully OPEC+ won’t flood the market (assuming they can) - I don’t think they need lower prices than today to push shale production lower but there are always risks and who knows what strategy they will pursue.

I really don’t think Gideon will be fretting but it would be nice to get some signals from Navitas that they are cracking on regardless.

It’s also better that these trade and market share wars happen now than in a few years’ time assuming Sea Lion makes it to production.

Shale was starting to struggle anyway and breakeven prices have been increasing (most new wells need over $60 ) so I doubt these prices will last too long. It’s mainly based on the anticipation of OPEC+ increasing supply whilst the global economy struggles and demand doesn’t increase as much as anticipated. In the meantime US inventories are at 5 year lows and Trump wants to refill the SPR.

I’m sure Navitas will have their own view on where oil prices are heading over the next few years, and with a low breakeven Sea Lion surely makes a lot of sense.

There is no point in pretending that a low oil price suits RKH. Financing can be impacted and investment decisions can be delayed (as we’ve seen before).

HOWEVER, this a a medium-long term project to exploit hundreds of millions (if not billions) of barrels over a long timeframe. Decisions for such projects are not made on the spot price of the day or a few weeks/months’ of turmoil due to tariff negotiations.

Not only that, in such environments, low cost barrels become ever more attractive and with a breakeven of $25/bbl (further phases will likely be even lower), Sea Lion must be one of the most attractive projects in the world right now. A stable, supportive and healthy fiscal environment helps, and as others have mentioned recently there is likely to be Israeli government support in the background.

Let’s see what happens but I suspect Navitas have stress-tested this to lower oil prices than we are seeing today and if anybody can raise money it’s the Jews.

We are likely to see ups & downs on market sentiment (and no doubt a lot of bluster from the usual forum clowns) but let’s see what Navitas do.

You have presumably sold out then Borderstothemoon & Market Dealer?

Market-Dealer sold out at 42.2p when the oil price was $74 and bought BOR instead at 5.2p. He desperately tried to talk the share price down when Trump announced his tariffs and is clearly unhappy to see the share price now 17% higher than when he sold despite the oil price being 16% lower.

Meanwhile BOR are down 8%.

I think it’s pretty obvious what his motives are.

Thanks Mogger, there is certainly a lot of oil-related activity scheduled for May. It’s almost as if they are gearing up for FID.

I think you’re right violindog. There is a bigger picture to Sea Lion for Navitas and the Israelis.

Large increase today on what looks like lowish volume but perhaps there is a large background order.

Oil creeping up again today despite the flat indices. Up to $68 after FTSE close.

What are you talking about “reap what you sow” Market-Dealer?

You sold at 42.2p when the oil price was $10 higher, then bottled it and bought again at 50p before selling again at a loss when Trump’s tariffs were announced.

It seems you’re not great at this trading malarkey you keep talking about. You’re reaping what you sow and everybody here (old and new) knows you’re a liar.

Market-Dealer has openly stated that he wants to buy back lower. People can join the dots as to why he’s posting as he is. Meanwhile the oil price is creeping up, and the trade war will get resolved.

The new investors are probably worried about you Market-Dealer (like the rest of us).

Oil price creeping upwards (against the trend of the indices yesterday which is positive).

Reports of shale production dropping already. Market is pricing in a global recession at the moment. Some positive news on trade deals would be welcome.

Market Dealer is a fantasist and a liar.

The nonsense he’s spouted on here over the years is embarrassing and yet he continues.

You sold at 42.2p Garbled and posted as much here:

Goodbye Rkh.....24 Mar 2025 11:59

All the fund will be Heading to the south basin now (in drips).

Will be back here if the sp goes to sub 35p....ATB