Member Info for pauldrayton

Looks like 55p is providing a bit of resistance at the moment. Volume a bit lower this afternoon though.

Market-Dealer, you were telling everybody you’d sold out of BOR, were shorting RKH and that FID would be delayed by a year or two.

Now you’re complaining about bashers!

Market-Dealer, as others have pointed out you seem to have a habit of backing the wrong horse. It started with you pushing DES when RKH were the ones finding oil, then you switched to ARG claiming that Sea Lion ran into their acreage, and now it’s BOR who can’t find a partner. You consistently get it wrong, even to the point of shorting RKH last week and selling out of BOR at less than 5p.

A low market cap doesn’t necessarily equate to higher potential by the way.

Market-Dealer, as other

Market-Dealer,

You talk about BOR owning 100% as if it’s a good thing. It just means they haven’t been able to find a partner since the Darwin discovery in 2012. They would have to give away a significant percentage just to fund a single appraisal well. If they could get to where Rockhopper are now with 35% equity and a fully appraised, development-ready project with FEED complete and an EIS & FDP signed off I can assure you that Harry Baker would absolutely bite your hand off (although of course it won’t happen).

With regards to Rockhopper’s finance requirements, the cost to first oil is circa $1.5bn (it’s come down p777). Navitas are looking at taking on $900m of debt, leaving a requirement of $600m cash. Rockhopper’s share of that (35%) is $210m but two thirds of that is covered by a loan from Navitas so they need $70m. If they win the Ombrina Mare case that would provide them with pretty much with the full $70m, and some cash left over for taxes and the Italian exit. So fully funded to first oil.

If they lose the annulment case completely they’d need to find circa $35m which they could do at today’s share price by issuing circa 48m shares (roughly 7.5% dilution). I suspect, however, if they were promoting a FID-ready project then they could probably raise at a higher price and have less dilution.

Then there is the possibility of another partner entering the fray, and I suspect Rockhopper could easily be fully funded by farming down 5% even with a complete loss of the annulment case.

Whatever happens, they will raise what they need if Navitas proceed with FID. Follow on phases will covered by cash flow and possibly additional partners, and obviously debt will be even easier to raise once production revenues are coming in.

Congratulations hsbilkhu, that’s what it’s all about, and to have 200k running free of charge is fantastic.

No shame at all in protecting profits and we all have our own financial requirements/responsibilities etc.

Enjoy your retirement!

US-China trade war thawing and oil price rising obviously helps market sentiment. It would be nice to hold above 52.5p, after which a quick route to 63p looks entirely possible.

Much - I completely agree and have said as much on BOR’s forum. As you can imagine I wasn’t particularly popular as a result. I’m yet to see any convincing argument for BOR to achieve anything other than a slight rise in sympathy with progress in the north. I have nothing against BOR shareholders and wish them well but Market-Dealer really is trying to lead people astray it seems (to me).

Hereandnow, the rig required for BOR to appraise Darwin is completely different from the rig required to develop Sea Lion:

PMO made the mistake of rig sharing and it massively backfired. I doubt Navitas will make the same mistake.

Like I said, BOR might well have its day but I don’t think it’s correlated with the NFB or FID for Sea Lion.

Alma, USOP was absolute comedy gold.

Niall Ring’s pub was the source of many a misadventure!

It was only when Nevada state turned up to examine their ‘oil discovery’ that they found nothing other than a bit of olive oil in a glass jar!

Thanks hereandnow, but we have enough BOR rampers on this board with Market-Dealer (although he said he’s shorting everything at the moment).

I truly wish Borders well but just can’t see them getting a partner for the foreseeable future. Navitas & RKH have so much to be getting on with in the NFB, and with the SFB having completely different requirements (both in terms of water depth & hydrocarbons), I don’t see the synergies. Yes they may well rise in sympathy of progress in the NFB, but does it really benefit them in any way? The new(ish) CEO comes across as a bit of a chancer to me (reminiscent of USOP’s Brian McDonell) - his comments to private investors like guso are a massive red flag to me.

Like I said, I wish Borders all the best and Darwin may well have its day but I suspect it’s a decade or more away.

I think RKH will eventually get bought out for circa £6.

I realise that’s a ramp(!) but it’s what I believe.

Once Sea Lion is in production and Isobel is appraised, 35% of the NFB with the FI’s fiscal regime is going to look like a dream.

FID couldn’t be more important.

Isn’t it a ‘Buy RKH’ sign rather than a ‘Buy BOR’ sign Tincan?

Whilst I’m sure BOR will see a rise in sympathy of any positive news for RKH, it’s not particularly relevant to BOR themselves is it?

I think the problem we are going to have on these forums is that quite a number of shareholders sold amidst the turmoil of Trump’s tariffs and the oil price dropping.

The assumption they made was that they could protect their capital (very wise to be fair) and buy back lower (which is where it’s gone wrong for them thus far).

Despite the market jitters, RKH’s share price has actually been extremely resilient and has kept pushing higher even with lower oil prices. That’s bound to be frustrating for those still on the sidelines and of course they want to see a lower share price (hence the negative posts on here).

Navitas talking up Sea Lion as a mega project and confirming that they still plan FID at the middle of this year is obviously great news for RKH but not ideal for those wanting to buy back in.

I’m not at all surprised, therefore, to see the negative posts. Nobody can predict the future of course, and nothing is guaranteed- they might even get their lower buy-in opportunity, but there are lots of positive noises at the moment so you can bet your bottom dollar that they will do all they can to drown them out and talk the share price down.

We all have our own strategies and agendas, so who can blame them? But it’s also important to understand them.

Cheerio Ken.

An additional snippet from r1234 on the RKH board:

18:30

"Project Sealion will be part of the gold standard in the world of developing mega oil projects with minimal emissions in a way that combines efficient and environmentally friendly development with complementary environmental projects".

Great to hear Navitas are so positive about Sea Lion and the Falkland Islands, with FID still on track for the middle of this year.

This could also potentially boost the markets:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-total-reset-negotiated-china-tariff-talks-geneva.amp

Thanks r1234,

Sounds like they are doing their best to ensure that Sea Lion is attractive to the wider investment community by doing it in the most environmentally friendly way.

“Gold standard”. “Mega oil project”. Sounds good to me and great to hear them talk so positively about it (with FID still planned for mid year).

Thanks Tincan, as many of us here expected but nice to hear Navitas confirm only last week that they still anticipate FID mid-2025 (contrary to what certain people who wanted to buy in lower have been suggesting on here).

TopDrive - I won’t take the bet because I suspect you are right, and I think Navitas & Rockhopper agree with you too.

All true but if you have a look at the AIM landscape back in 2010, how many of those popular oil & gas stocks have survived? I’d guess 90%+ have gone pop and investors have lost all of their money or been diluted into oblivion.

RKH has certainly had its ups & downs but Sam has steered the company to this point, where they are on the brink of an OM payout and Sea Lion FID with only 640m shares in issue.

He’s got a large and possibly undeserved salary but Rockhopper shareholders have not only got to this point, but have a potentially extremely exciting future.