Member Info for pauldrayton

Slowly but surely the pieces of the jigsaw are coming together.

All eyes on Shenandoah now - first oil just a few weeks away.

Indeed TopDrive. I’ve notified Navitas that their project has been delayed by a couple of years because they weren’t aware. Lucky we’ve got such well informed posters on here to help them out.

Certainly looks like things are hotting up Borders.

The second half of 2025 could be very interesting.

FEED complete, courtesy of Mogger on the RKH forum:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aragon2006_a-keymilestone-achieved-aragon-a-activity-7329073206345052161-g2Dj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAB-3IcBBhs8OSOnZaarrB-oQtWKJXTxoSo

Excellent news. Well spotted Mogger.

All systems go.

2025-2026

It’s nothing to worry about Dodger. As per the below, it’s always been the case. Nothing has changed. They are simply waiting for FEED to complete and Sea Lion FID to take place, at which point notice will be served and Aoka Mizu will start the refit 6 months later.

LTT, it was always the intention to extend the contract until Navitas are ready, as per the December report you’ve quoted. I can’t find the March report either but perhaps that extension ha now been signed?

It’s exactly what they planned so nothing has changed.

It’s earmarked for Sea Lion, but likely to be early 2026 before it starts the refit.

"Both parties have the intention to extend oil production as long as reasonably possible and convenient to both parties to ensure a smooth transition from current client and subsequent new contract party," said Aurelia.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/uk-north-sea-fpso-owner-agrees-terms-for-contract-extension/2-1-1822578

Looking at annulment cases over the past few years, the vast majority of cases are concluded within 3-12 months of costs being submitted. I can only see two that have taken longer than 12 months, the longest being about 2 years (but that is a massive outlier).

We are definitely in the ‘normal’ window now and the likelihood is that an outcome will be known by September, but of course nothing is guaranteed.

Why do you assume OM won’t drop any time soon LTT?

Surely with every day that passes it becomes more & more likely to drop!

The hearing was over a year ago and post hearing briefs were submitted 11 months ago.

Surely it can’t go on much longer, unless they’ve completely forgotten about it!

Https://www.jobsgopublic.com/jobs/8442ff6c-f1fb-47b8-b456-2f83c2aa728e

To be taken with a generous pinch of salt (it is Malcy after all), but his comments are below:

“Borders and Southern is looking to be an interesting play under the new management of Harry Baker. Since going to see him and his excellent team when the shares were friendless and Darwin was still only a City in Australia things have picked up materially.

The figures are neither here nor there, pre Baker but since then the company has made another raise and are funded into 2027 and with interest in the Falklands on the up people are looking at Darwin with a new pair of eyes.

Indeed with the money funding the G&A very nicely the company can indeed afford to take the best offer, not the first offer in the Darwin farm-out which is underway. The shares have performed very well already and this can partly be put down to the imminent news expected from Sea Lion as Navitas have apparently stated that FID will happen this summer.

The very size of Darwin has apparently convinced a number of very significant companies inti the data room, despite slightly uncertain commodity prices there are few of this size around, should this come off then there is mega material upside in the current share price.“

A 3 well development is a concept outlined by BOR but it would be down to the Operator (should they get a farm-in agreement) as to how any of it would be developed (assuming successful appraisal & testing).

Buffit, BOR wouldn’t be able to raise the money to drill an appraisal well on their own. Even if they could, shareholders would be diluted into oblivion.

No tests were planned on the FI exploration wells.

BOR have put together a development scenario to entice shareholders/partners.

However before Darwin is developed, it needs appraising and testing. No company in the world would go straight to development at this stage.

A partner would need to pay for the appraisal and testing. The question for BOR is - are there any companies willing to take that on? And if so, what % do they want in return?

The FIG have been willing to extend licenses for all companies over the years, as long as they can pay the fees. They need an expiration date but I wouldn’t pay too much attention to it.

I don’t think it will creates any risk or causes any urgency.

No I don’t see any risk at all on that front Gravedigger.

Biggest risk for me is being able to attract a partner, and the terms on which they’d agree to farm in.

License extension is all but guaranteed as long as they can pay the fees.

Mystic Meg was distantvoices’ wife, not related to AoW.