Member Info for pauldrayton

Keep us updated Rot1.

Have a good weekend.

Be prepared to be VERY pleasantly surprised with Isobel ZYX (in my opinion). I think both Rockhopper and Navitas know it’s a monster.

True ZYX, but I think they already know it’s about to get a large boost:

“ The Navitas independent NSAI report confirms the scale of Sea Lion and the possibility for it to generate significant value for all stakeholders should sanction be achieved. We also look forward to publishing shortly our own independent report which we expect to corroborate this significant resource base.”

I’ve answered that for you before Market-Dealer.

Ralph (and others) were negative when the share price was sub 10p for a number of reasons. PMO hadn’t delivered what they said they would, Harbour walked away, the share price was in the doldrums and many people had major paper losses. It looked like the Falkland oil dream was over and there had been no progress for years.

You, on the other hand, have chosen to be negative when things have never looked better. There is a strong and committed Operator in Navitas, FPSO FEED is complete, EIS signed off, FDP essentially approved, long lead items secured, finance package progressing well, resource upgrade imminent, OM outcome on the way, a potential partner joining in the near future, FID in a few months, first oil in early 2028 etc etc.

But we all know your game. You sold out at 42p and want back in. Perhaps take a long look in the mirror and at least admit that to yourself.

Market-Dealer, you’ve spent two decades ramping rubbish. You’ve been on the wrong side of literally every single trade. Pushing DES, FOGL & ARG at the worst possible times. All of your pointless nudges, winks and Sharon’s nonsense were proven as lies. How you still come on here and pretend you know things is beyond me. You’ve been wrong about everything.

Somehow you’ve even managed to find yourself on the wrong side of the trade when for the first time in history, it looks like FID is only months away and first oil has become a reality for the Falkland Islands.

It’s utterly baffling how somebody can be so wrong every single time. You have become the ultimate contrarian indicator. An embarrassment to yourself and the forum.

We might see NastyNick’s 63p in short order.

Market-Dealer - you sold out at 42p.

We all know you want to buy in cheaper but we aren’t going to sell our shares so that you can buy them.

You’ve made your bed, you lie in it.

Your continuous lies won’t work.

FID Q3 2025.

First oil Q1 2028.

Agreed Daikihaku1. It’s not as if they’ve announced a problem or major delay, we are talking a few months but with major positive progress.

When you consider that a resource upgrade is due soon, followed by Shenandoah first oil, a possible OM outcome and further Sea Lion funding progress all in the next few months, there are plenty of catalysts.

There are still people who sold because of Trump sitting on the sidelines wanting to get back in but watching on as the share price rises. No doubt there will be pullbacks and bumps in the road but it you believe FID will happen then there isn’t that much time left to take a position.

My understanding is it’s the same thing as a CPR - the update will be carried out by a ‘competent person’.

I thought it was very interesting/positive that they expect the report to ‘corroborate’ what Navitas have released. It’s a significant upgrade on their previous version and due to be released shortly (guessing pre AGM).

As you say it can be used for various different things (farm down, RBL, sale etc). Having a wildly different CPR from Navitas clearly isn’t much use in negotiations of any kind.

Whilst I the notes seem to have spooked some people, I actually see them as a sign of real progress. All of these issues now need to be investigated and resolved in order to reach FID so that’s why they are focusing on them now. It might seem a bit woolly and uncertain but there are lots of moving parts (OM outcome, tax settlement, finance structure, decom agreement, potential partner joining etc). The good thing is the amount of work going on behind the scenes to get all of the ducks in a row. It’s a huge long term project so from a financial and regulatory point of view, every t needs crossing and every i dotting.

You’re absolutely right Rot and it’s a horrible feeling when you’re stressing about your investments - I’m sure we’ve all been there at one point or another. There is a lot to be said for a sound night of sleep!

I very much agree that another partner will enter the fray sooner or later and Delek could well be a contender (although there are others and we might be surprised who joins). RKH resource update first though I would have thought - it sounded from the Results like that is fairly imminent.

You don’t need to apologise Rot!

You’ve followed your own instincts and there is a lot to be said for that.

As you say, whilst the dates have been pushed back slightly, if they are going to deliver first oil in Q1 2028 then I think they need to get to FID by the end of September this year (Q3) so hopefully not too much longer to wait.

Tincan, Johnson is gas. Potentially very large but unlikely to be produced.

Anybody got a copy of the Canaccord note?

Market-Dealer hasn’t got a clue what he’s talking about.

He was telling everybody that first oil would be 2029-2030, but the Operator has just told us it will be Q1 2028.

He’s bitter because he sold out at 42p and tried to talk it down further. Same with BOR.

Looks like the numpties are out in force today!

Interesting and helpful that RKH’s new resource analysis is expected to “corroborate” Navitas’ latest.

Due to be released shortly.

With regards to the pre-emption agreement, I think it helps RKH and Navitas because any potential farm-in partner has to buy into the project rather than simply buying out RKH. This ensures both Navitas and RKH get full value for any % they let go.

It’s been discussed before but I also wonder whether the FIG tax issue isn’t being deliberately unresolved for as long as possible to muddy the waters for any potential vultures.

Good to see quite a strong response to the selling this morning.

Yes the lead bank is now completing all technical, regulatory and other due diligence. Sounds like it’s all agreed in principle.

I’d be surprised if there isn’t a farm out of sorts as well at some point, but Navitas are demonstrating that they can fund it alone.

Looks like the focus for the next few months will be all about finance.

Resource update due shortly and hopefully the OM outcome too.

How big are big barrels?