Member Info for pauldrayton

Alma I think Poncet was appointed by King & Spalding.

I could ‘sort of’ understand had the Italian-appointed arbitrator disagreed with the outcome but the fact that it was a unanimous decision would (I would have thought) destroyed that argument.

I shouldn’t be but I’m shocked. It’s also completely irrelevant to the case at hand - there should be a mechanism to review the initial decision in this kind of scenario rather than to annul the award based on something that’s nothing to do with the case and outside of Rockhopper’s control.

Https://globalarbitrationreview.com/article/italy-fails-dislodge-poncet-icsid-case

I can’t believe they’ve annulled the entire case based on this. It was a unanimous decision, including the Italian’s appointed arbiter.

Https://www.linkedin.com/in/catalin-alexandru-b2640b32?

An ICSID Award has been annulled after one arbitrator failed to disclose a 25-year-old criminal conviction by the courts of the defendant State. Interestingly, the same ground for annulment had been raised without success in other ICSID annulment proceedings.

Yes to put it into perspective today’s ’loss’ (if you can call it that) is about 1.6% of the company’s NPV based on today’s resource report. Only a few weeks’ worth of Phase 1 production net to RKH.

As I said, farm out 2.5% (even at a big discount to NPV) and it’s problem solved.

If RKH’s 35% share is worth $1.8bn NPV, then 2.5% is worth $128.5m NPV.

Farm out 2.5% (NPV $128.5m) at a 60% discount to NPV (for $51.4m).

Total cash $106.4m.

More than fully funded to first oil including G&A, licence fees, all tax liabilities, Italian exit and decommissioning contingency.

It would value RKH’s remaining 32.5% (applying the same 60% discount to NPV) at 77p per share and make them fully funded to first oil.

Indeed the $1.8bn is over £2/share based on today (present value). As first oil gets closer that figure will increase.

Sachbarnes, I think it is fair to assume the €4m legal success fee will no longer be owed.

It’s also a fair question on tax. Are insurance payouts taxable? I honestly have no idea how that works but a definite question for the AGM.

Unfortunately out of date already given the OM outcome:

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/June-2025-corporate-update-Vf.pdf

No that’s wrong Gruyère. The €31 is in addition to Tranche 1.

It’s final and binding - no appeal. Although if it’s the previous panel’s fault then it’s bizarre that RKH pay the price!

As somebody else mentioned the silver lining is that the insurance payout should hopefully arrive before FID. There was a risk of the decision being made a after FID so there would have been no income prior to FID, leaving a larger amount to be raised.

I’m quite shocked by that decision, and I would guess the insurers are too.

I’d be interested to know on what basis it was annulled, not that it really matters now.

8 years for that. ICSID really is a joke.

Thank goodness for the insurance. A wise move by Sam in hindsight.

Don’t forget Isobel needs appraising so the 2C figures for the southern development area are likely to change dramatically in time.

Not quite copy & paste but almost! It looks to me like ‘Development Pending’ 2C resources have increased from 532mmbls to 727mmbls since Navitas’ November report?

‘Development on Hold’ 2C resources have therefore reduced from 376mmbls to 180mmbls.

Rookie,

The name change is because Navitas are including them in future development plan and they refer to them as the Sea Lion development areas (northern, central & southern).

The southern area (including Isobel & Elaine) has not been included in the figures for the development scenario.

I suspect we will find out today.

I’m fairly certain it arrives as an email to the lawyers who then communicate the outcome to RKH.

Thanks. Pleased the decision has been made a the case is concluded. Now Rockhopper will have some more clarity on their financial situation whatever the outcome. I’m surprised the ICSID website has been updated before Rockhopper know the outcome (unless there is a delay in interpreting it!).

Ephemeral, this report brings RKH’s commissioned independent figures into line with the Navitas report that they quoted in November last year.

Very good news because it’s a significant upgrade on their previous report and now both companies are singing from the same hymn sheet.

Well with a bit of luck we will see Shenandoah first oil and Sea Lion resource update in June.

A positive Ombrina Mare outcome would be extremely welcome, although there really doesn’t seem to be any transparency on timing.

I think it needs to close above 57.5p to make a move into the 60s and we’ve seen a fair bit of resistance around 55/56p in recent weeks.

I don’t think the market is the same as it was back in the 2010-2012 days when a post on Interactive Investor could move the market. In fact I doubt these forums make much of a difference to anybody’s buying or selling decisions. They certainly don’t have an impact on the share price. I view these forums more as a place to discover and discuss information but ramping/deramping is pointless because it doesn’t have any influence.

If I’m wrong please post and let us know you’ve bought/sold based on a post you’ve seen on here.

Congratulations Custard. That’s brilliant and I really hope there are a lot more stories like that to come here over the next few months and years.