Member Info for pauldrayton

First step is to try to hold onto the 3 handle. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a backtest soon. 31.5p looks to me to be the level it needs to break through and then there’s a bit of a gap to circa 36.5p. 40p is the big one though.

Https://www.linkedin.com/in/yossigvura?

Just FYI, Yossi is now listed as CFO of Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Limited (focused on Sea Lion).

His profile says he started the role last January but he’s only just updated his profile.

Formerly with Delek Energy/Delek Drilling.

Unfortunately I suspect we are going to see an uptick in the number of id1ots posting on here. Sadly comes with the territory of a rising share price and increased newsflow on the horizon.

Best ignored unless they have something useful to add.

Hopefully the tide is turning on the net zero nonsense.

Good to see some new voices on here and those of the ‘lurkers’.

Please do join in the discussions this year - hopefully it will be an eventful one with lots to talk about.

I do agree that talk of spending winnings based on future news and share price increases is premature, as nothing is certain yet and there are always obstacles and challenges along the way. I think it’s just been a bit of fun though rather than anything serious.

I disagree that the recent rise is based on nothing other than sentiment though - there has been plenty of news from Navitas and other snippets online. Not everything will be put in an immediate RNS. As Navitas’ projected FID date gets closer I suspect the newsflow will increase too.

Somebody posted a screengrab of the largest shareholder list when discussing it with Godders. Anybody remember who/when and we can find out, although it may have changed a bit since?

Agree BlooBird. It’s private investors who believed in the NFB when it looked like it could never happen, who held through the lows and who held their nerve despite the despair of never-ending share price lows who should really benefit now if it all goes ahead.

I would never give trading tips or advice to anybody because we can all be wrong and we all have different needs in life, but it would be painful to see long-suffering shareholders sell out now and give away the potential for the ‘real’ gains to newcomers.

Squeeze em out I say!

Some chunky late trades now being reported.

Another good day and building a solid foundation for the next leg up (hopefully!).

Thanks Nick. As you say, if the purchase order is going to be made in April (or soon after), then financing and FID really aren’t far off.

Interesting that Navitas said they don’t ‘need’ another partner and that they want to remain as Operator no matter what. It doesn’t sound like they’re too concerned about financing this to me.

The pieces of the jigsaw are beginning to fit together - April isn’t far away.

Https://www.peceng.com/html/index.php

Check out Sivaram’s comment:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7273576465944719360?

“Extended FEED that leads up to PO (Purchasing Officer) readiness for LLI (Long Lead Items)!! Target April 25…”

We are getting closer - no wonder the share price has been rising. Who needs an RNS? The information is out there.

Trump will be pro oil, but the average shale breakeven is around $55/bbl so higher than Russia’s. Companies won’t drill for free, or for a loss, so it’s hard to see how oil prices would fall that significantly. Navitas will be looking into the future and Sea Lion breakeven prices make it extremely attractive anyway.

Keep up the good work NSS. Happpy New Year.

@oxygen, Navitas have stated it’s a prerequisite for FID, and it was on the FIG’s agenda for November. I’m not sure whether it’s fully agreed yet but it certainly will be in order for FID to happen (currently expected in mid 2025).

Jocko, you’re not quite right. There is still no large-scale salmon farming, but they are now having a public consultation which they originally decided against:

https://falklands.gov.fk/policy/images/jdownloads/FIG_Scoping_Paper_to_Inform_Consultation_on_Future_Development_of_Fish-Farming_in_the_Falkland_Islands_Optimized.pdf

It’s a very different situation from oil production which the FIG support. They’ve also had the public consultation on the EIS for Sea Lion.

I don’t think anybody is suggesting that there is zero potential for protests (this is true of anywhere in the world), but with the government in support and giving assurances it makes a big difference.

With regards to how the inhabitants might get richer, imagine the government tax receipts, the opportunities that will arise, the public spending that will be possible etc. GDP per capita will go through the roof.

Yes that’s what I said, FIG did not want salmon farming. They do want oil development. Big difference.

ExCo did not support salmon farming, but they do support oil development.

Also salmon farming isn’t going to make all the inhabitants extremely rich.

I’m sure there will be the odd protestor, although I don’t remember any issues during the previous drilling campaigns, and I don’t think they will make any difference whatsoever.

If the FIG want it and Navitas can fund it, oil will be developed.

Rockhopper have had their fair share of bad luck with the oil price crash and Covid, but funnily enough without Covid and the Russia/Ukraine situation the UK wouldn’t have unleashed the windfall tax on the North Sea. Whilst that’s obviously been a disaster for UK E&D companies, it has actually enabled Navitas to negotiate with the FIG and get assurances to protect their (and Rockhopper’s investments). It’s made the Falkland Islands one of the most attractive places in the world to explore for, and develop, hydrocarbons.

I like the pattern of this so far.

Strong rise on good volume, backtest, support and rise again. Higher lows and higher highs.

Long may it continue.