Member Info for pauldrayton

There is also the unresolved tax situation to consider for any potential vulture.

Life of field breakeven was $25 before so this has come down slightly, although cost to first oil has gone from $1.2bn to $1.4bn.

No surprise to me. Sam Moody predicted this once Shenandoah was delayed and it makes sense.

So why has this been updated again now?

Finance/partner?

A few semisubs available next year:

https://s201.q4cdn.com/439848451/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/FSR-110524-final.pdf

Different Noble!

Noble & Diamond Offshore merged earlier this year.

Could they be tempted into another foray in the Falkland Islands?

“A Sophisticated Investor like myself”

Ken Dodd or Walter Mitty?

“Marunam; What's changed is that I’ve bought back in”.

Interesting timelines mentioned.

If work starts in mid 2025 then it will be ready in mid 2027. To hit those dates they need to give 180 days (6 months) notice. That would mean FID this year still.

If Navitas wait until Shenandoah comes on stream before FID then we could be looking at the dates shifting from mid 2025 & mid 2027 to end 2025 and end 2027.

Let’s see what happens, but according to that article, Bluewater were obviously still thinking about issuing the 180 day notice this year at the Pareto Energy Conference which was only a couple of months ago in September.

Perhaps I’m wrong and Navitas will push ahead with FID soon.

To be honest when 2026 was first mentioned a lot of us on here thought that would be a massive stretch, and it would be the very end of 2026 if at all. 2027 was always more likely, and still a very good result if they can do it (especially if it’s mid 2027 because that’s only a few months longer and they’ve had Shenandoah delays to contend with).

Thanks oil. Due diligence just starting now? Maybe pushing it to get a deal done before Christmas then?

TCM, how can a project be FID-ready without an approved EIS or FDP? It can’t.

You’re attempting to mislead as usual.

Also, nobody is saying that FID has been, or will be, delayed. They are saying that FID might be pushed back until Shenandoah is on stream. It’s up to Navitas, and rest assured they won’t keep updating their FID timelines just to placate RKH shareholders or help people trade. You’re irrelevant to them.

Sounds like you should sell up TCM - you’re agitated and upset. You should have sold at 15p and bought back in when it hits your 8p target - you messed up. Own it and stop blaming others.

Time for you to move (jog) on…..

TCM,

If you can’t put 2+2 together than that’s your own fault. You should have known that a delay at Shenandoah could have a knock-on effect for Sea Lion, especially as Sam Moody spelled it out for you in May.

FID isn’t the only potential share price driver though - a positive OM outcome should also provide a boost.

I suspect most holders here have been here long enough not to worry about a few months here & there and with a project of this size Navitas are looking at a much longer timeframe than just the next few months. Your trading opportunities aren’t a consideration.

If you can’t cope with the risk or time delays then maybe it’s best for you to sell up & move on. I’d be very surprised if the share price is less than 30p should the project be sanctioned but if it is then again most shareholders would probably see that as an opportunity.

This is a long play not a short one, and if you’re not prepared for delays & macroeconomic impacts then you’re in the wrong game.

Bootle, I disagree. As soon as there were delays at Shenandoah there were discussions on here about a knock-on effect for Sea Lion. Sam Moody himself suggested so in May.

There may be ‘some’ people on here who haven’t considered the possibility of a delay to Navitas’ original timeframe objective, but I’d say most of us have.

To say anybody is ‘proved right’ if FID is not in 2024 is nonsense - to be honest it’s a fairly logical expectation, even though everyone would like it to be this year.

We shall find out in due course but note that RKH have never stated an aim to reach FID in 2024.

TCM, you keep going on about this RKH director saying funding is the main impediment to FID, but that’s not quite true.

The full quote is as follows:

“The refined Sea Lion development is, in our view, highly competitive in a global market. We believe the main impediment to sanction remains the Argentine sovereignty claim of the Falkland Islands. The claim does mean certain service providers and financial institutions choose not to provide services for fear of a potential impact an association may have on their businesses in Argentina.”

Note that the Argentine sovereignty claim means “certain service providers and financial institutions choose not to provide services”. Navitas would have known for a long time which service providers and financial institutions choose not to, and yet they have continued to push forward with the EIS & FDP.

Once again, it matters not whether or not FID arrives in the next 6 weeks. I’d suggest 6 months is more likely, but the important thing is the direction of travel and progress (of which there has been plenty).

Mogger & Alma had your number on here early doors.

Rot whilst your post is on the wrong board, it’s actually worth pointing out how poorly other small cap oil companies have been run and how disastrous the EPL has been for UK based explorers and producers.

Thankfully the FIG are taking a different stance, but this net zero nonsense will come back to bite the UK big time.

I still think this should ‘conservatively’ be trading at £1/share.

I guess the market wants to see the Kertang farm out deal to assess future cash requirements.

Discussion is fine. Repetitive childish nonsense belongs on ADVFN.

Know your place TCM.